With the MLB free agency signing period off to a slow start, I thought I would address the Toronto Blue Jays off-season so far, and their chances of making the playoffs in 2009.
General Manager J.P. Ricciardi stated in an interview recently that the club might not have as much money to spend because of the sagging Canadian dollar.
Last season, the dollar was more or less a par with the U.S. Greenback and now the Loonie is hovering around 80 cents. Needless to say, that's not good.
That admission can't do much for the morale of Jays' fans, who are already looking at the likely departure of A.J. Burnett in the face.
I've gone on record saying that the Blue Jays should trade Roy Halladay, and I still think they should, because I question whether or not the Jays are even close to making the playoffs.
Despite all the talk about the New Yankees poor pitching over the last few seasons, they've always finished ahead of the Blue Birds.
Now with the emergence of the Tampa Bay Rays and the continued solid play of the Boston Red Sox, the Jays are simply put, the fourth best team in the American League East right now.
If the Jays don't trade Roy Halladay, and I don't think they will until the trade deadline at the earliest, I still don't see how they can realistically pass two teams in the East.
Their offence was terrible last season, and for them to be successful, they'll need close to a full season of Scott Rolen, which doesn't seem likely, Arron Hill to make a complete recovery from post-concussion syndrome, as well as Alex Rios and Lyle Overbay's return to hitting over 20 home runs each in a season.
All of the aforementioned arguments assumes that the Jays' pitching staff doesn't have a drastic drop-off from 2008, when they open the season without Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and A.J. Burnett.
It also assumes that the growth of Adam Lind and Travis Snider continues from where it left off at the end of the 2008 season.
From a shopping list standpoint, the Jays still need a shortstop, but don't seem to be in the Rafael Furcal market, which is too bad, as he's exactly the type of player the Jays need. He's good with the glove, and a true leadoff hitter at a position where they don't have a current player locked up.
To his credit, J.P. Ricciardi hasn't thrown the season, and I'm sure he'll make a surprise signing during the General Managers' meetings in December. And in the interest of fairness, I think I've thought of a way the Jays could contend next season.
They should sign Milton Bradley, Mark Prior and Ben Sheets, all of whom are available, and all of whom could be affordable in short-term, larger money contracts because of their inability to stay healthy.
Could the trio stay healthy for a full season? Doubtful, but it could give the Jays a Puncher's chance, and it's not like the Jays aren't already paying players who get hurt often.
In my scenario, the Jays would have to trade Overbay in order to move Bradley to designated hitter and Snider or Lind to first base.
If Sheets could start 30 games, and you could squeeze 20 out of Prior, who is still recovering from shoulder surgery, to go along with Roy Halladay, Jesse Litsch and a May/June return of Dustin McGowan, they could really be cooking.
After re-reading the last four paragraphs, maybe I should bold or make the phrase Puncher's Chance bigger. That's a lot of 'ifs', but unfortunately I just can't see how Toronto can leapfrog two or three of the Red Sox, Rays or Yankees in 2009.
Maybe I'm wrong, or missed something. If I have, feel free to let me know in the Your Call section, or drop me or David a baseball-related e-mail here like Edd Harris did.
Oh yeah, and for those of you keeping score, I'm leading the other Double Play Baseball Blogger David Carroll 2 - 1 in where the TSN top 25 free agents will sign. You can find our full predictions on the links to the right.