Feb 5, 2015
Jets managing expectations as playoffs draw closer
At the start of the season, speculation was that the playoff push in the Western Conference was going to involve a lot of teams. As December turned to January, it looked as though it was going to be a nine or ten team battle. But that all changed when the calendar turned from January to February. The race is on with 12 teams in the chase. TSN Radio 1290's Dennis Beyak has more.
By Dennis Beyak
At the start of the season, speculation was that the playoff push in the Western Conference was going to involve a lot of teams. As December turned to January, it looked as though it was going to be a nine or ten team battle. But that all changed when the calendar turned from January to February. The race is on with 12 teams in the chase.
For the Winnipeg Jets, it's been an interesting 53 games. And the term "managing expectations" comes to mind. Opinions, suggestions, and avid hockey talk never stops in Canadian NHL markets - nor should it. The Jets' 2-5 start resulted in discussion about Connor McDavid. "Expectations" for the team were low. Another season with no playoffs, which veterans would be moved as part of a rebuild.
Fast forward 28 games to the Christmas break. Sixteen wins, points in 23 and only five regulation losses and the "expectations" were totally different. Fans were cutting back on Christmas spending, saving for playoff tickets. "We might even have home ice advantage in the first round." An overtime win in Minnesota opened the post-Christmas schedule, but then a bit of a stumble as the Jets dropped four of five. But all was good as teams below in the standings were going through their own ups and down. But "expectations" changed again. What was happening? Minnesota had picked up three of four points in the home-and-home series and closed the gap. For the first time all season, the Jets gave up five in a loss to the Islanders. In the four games they lost in this stretch, they only scored seven goals after averaging 3.36 per game with 47 goals in a 14 game segment. Yes, they beat Toronto but coach Paul Maurice was quick to point out they caught the Leafs at the end of a tough trip.
"Expectations" took another turn as despite their own difficult schedule and injuries, the Jets went 6-0-1 in a seven game stretch, including a five-game winning streak. Instead of looking below, it was time to look up. Yes, the Jets were right there with Central Division-rivals Chicago, St. Louis and Nashville. But coach Paul Maurice was not seeing the solid defensive play that had been so key to their success. The team goals-against that had them in the top five of the NHL for the past few months had slipped (12th as of Thursday). The power play that after a slow start was running at just under 30 per cent since November 25 went 1-for-11 in the final four wins of the streak. The penalty kill that was in the top three of the NHL stats was slipping (14th as of Thursday).
No doubt some of it was the schedule. Three in four nights on the road vs. Arizona, Los Angeles and Anaheim resulted in a 1-1-1 trip, but 13 goals-against in three games was not the way the Jets play. From Anaheim it was a Monday flight home for a Tuesday game against Florida. The Panthers were at the end of a trip and the Jets jumped on them early and were full marks for an 8-2 win. The very next day it was back on the plane headed for Dallas and back-to-back road games against Dallas and Chicago. Ondrej Pavelec stole the game in Dallas as the Jets were badly outplayed. Into Chicago for a game that had trouble written all over it, but despite giving up an early goal the Jets got great goaltending from Michael Hutchinson, battled the Hawks in a physical affair and won the game. It was home for a couple and then a much needed rest. They gave up a third period lead to Arizona but won in a shootout. Then jumped on Columbus early, and got more solid goaltending as Hutchinson picked up his second shutout of the season. What a way to go into the all-star break. "Expectations."
Through January, talk started about the Jets tough schedule after the break. Talk around the NHL was that St. Louis may be the best team in the league. The Jets and Blues will meet four times in the remaining 29 games. Chicago is still a Cup contender, two home games left with them after winning three in Chicago, Nashville continues to lead the Central, two games left in Nashville.
So the rest should have been exactly what the team needed. No favours from the schedule maker. It was five in eight days going from coast to coast in six days with a home and a road game in between. Offensive numbers slid, defensive numbers went up. In the first 34 games, the Jets averaged 2.26 goals against and 27.8 shots against per game, in the last 19 the goals against jumped over three and the shots against over 32 on a per game average. And yes, with every loss "expectations" changed. From game eight to the all-star break, the Jets' winning percentage was running at around 700. Was that a realistic number? The Jets have been one of the best road teams all season, but have now gone four straight on the road without a win. At 7-8-2 in the last 17 and 10 points between spots three to 12, what does that do to your "expectations."
Streaks are part of sports, whether it is team or individual. You have stretches where you find ways to win, you have stretches were you find ways to lose. When players say "don't get to high and don't get too low," that is why. It's their way of "managing expectations." Special teams come and go and after allowing eight goals against in four games while shorthanded, the Jets went six for six on the PK against a Sedin-driven power play in Vancouver. And a power play they had scored once over the previous six games got them the lead in the third. Despite the overtime loss, coach Maurice liked his team's effort. The Jets were physical on the puck, forced turnovers with their fore-check.
Short term, what are the "expectations" for the three-game home stand. Chicago Friday (three points up on the Jets and two games in hand), Colorado Sunday (six points back of the Jets and two games in hand) and Minnesota Tuesday (seven points back and three games in hand).
The Jets' identity is hard work and compete. That has slipped a little as of late. Some of that their own doing, lots of it because they are no longer surprising teams. After games we heard opposing players talk about how tough the Jets are to play against. We now hear that after the morning skate. Teams know what the Jets are all about and their preparation is about being ready for a hard game.
If at the start of the season you knew the Jets would be in a wild card spot with 29 games to go, everyone would have been okay with that. And there is no reason to think the Jets can't turn this slide around and get back to winning hockey games. They have done a lot of good things this season but it will be a wild ride to game 82 and for players, coaches and fans, it will be about "managing expectations" and doing that on a night-to-night, game-to-game basis.