Columnist image

TSN Raptors Reporter

| Archive

TORONTO - The NBA's got a new super lineup.

Of the 95 different five-man units that have logged at least 50 minutes together this season, the group that includes four Raptors starters - Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas - with Patrick Patterson leads the league in net rating, outscoring opponents by 35.5 points per 100 possessions in the 101 minutes they have shared the floor.

They have been better than the Warriors' famed "Death Lineup" (Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green) and, after outscoring the Magic by nine points in eight minutes Sunday, they've now passed Toronto's Lowry plus bench unit, or as some have dubbed it "The Extinction Lineup" (Lowry, Cory Joseph, Terrence Ross, Patterson and Lucas Nogueira).

With Patterson starting the second half in place of Pascal Siakam in each of the last three games, it begs the question: is Dwane Casey finally ready to shake up his first unit? The answer, at least for now, appears to be a resounding NO.

"We’re not changing the rotation," Casey insisted after practice on Monday. "It’s going to be fluid, that position. It’s not going to be permanent. We have the prerogative of using the roster the way we want to use it. I wouldn’t read anything into it."

The Raptors could conceivably continue to start one player (Siakam) and open the third quarter with another (Patterson), something that is virtually unprecedented in the NBA, at least over a regular period of time. Yes, it's certainly their prerogative to do it, but - here's a thought - why not play your best lineup as often as possible?

Toronto's starters, with Siakam, have logged 261 minutes this year - more than twice as many as any of its other units. The team has been outscored by a total of 32 points with them on the floor. Not surprisingly, the first quarter continues to be their worst, as it was last season with Luis Scola starting at the four. The Raptors are only outscoring opponents by three in the opening frame, meanwhile they are a plus-35 or better in each of the other three quarters, and a top-3 team in the second (plus-83, third in the NBA) and fourth (plus-125, first) when Patterson plays the bulk of his minutes.

Like Amir Johnson before him, Patterson's contributions won't necessarily jump out at you. They don't run plays for him, his counting stats are modest and his jump shot is inconsistent. However, he does the little things that help you win, which makes him the perfect complement to Lowry and DeRozan - a pair of high usage stars.

"You put Pat out there and he's got one of the highest IQs on the team," DeRozan said. "His ability to knock down shots, understanding plays defensively, offensively, he's always two steps ahead with you. He's got a feel for every one of us. We've been playing together for some years now and you can obviously tell that once Pat goes in I think it just brings us all together."

Last season, the Raptors outscored teams by a total of 403 points with him on the floor - the best mark on the team. This year, he's a plus-252, second to Lowry (plus-260). Currently, only five NBA players have a better plus-minus than Patterson: the Warriors' big four - Curry, Thompson, Durant and Green - and Lowry. The Raptors are simply a better team when Patterson is in the lineup.

So, why is he still coming off the bench? After losing Johnson in free agency, Patterson was the presumed starter going into training camp last year but ultimately lost the job to Scola, the result of an underwhelming pre-season. Since then, Patterson has had success as a reserve and the team has continued to win. The thinking for Casey: if it's not broke, don't fix it. In other words, fair or not, Patterson has been typecast.

However, the theory that Patterson is better suited as a bench player is baseless. In 235 regular season games with the Raptors, he's started just 11. He is averaging 10.2 points and 4.9 rebounds in those games, shooting 48 per cent from the field and 43 per cent from three-point range. He's a plus-29 and the team is 8-3. He has also started nine of the 31 playoff games he has appeared in for Toronto (they are 5-4 in those contests). That rough stretch in pre-season? Who cares, it's pre-season. The sample size of him starting is far too small to reach any conclusion, positive or negative.

What the numbers show is that he's a valuable player, arguably the Raptors' third-most important behind Lowry and DeRozan, and that's been the case regardless of who he's on the floor with, or against - starters or reserves.

Patterson is averaging just under 29 minutes per game. By starting him and staggering his playing time like they do with Lowry, Patterson could still conceivably open the second quarter with "The Extinction Lineup". He would almost certainly be playing more, which should be the intention, without having to be out there for 15-18 straight minutes in the second half (mid-third quarter to the end of the fourth), like he's often asked to do now.

Siakam has done an admirable job, having been thrown into the fire as a rookie, filling in for the injured Jared Sullinger. When Sullinger does return - he's at least another month away - the expectation is that he will take over as the starting power forward. They promised him the job this summer, which was the biggest reason he turned down bigger offers to sign in Toronto and may be also a factor in this current decision to keep Patterson in his familiar role as the sixth man. Still, even when Sullinger is back, Patterson's defensive versatility and lateral quickness makes him a better fit next to Valanciunas.

While they wait for Sullinger to get healthy, and then back into game shape - however long that takes - the ideal solution to their long standing power forward problem continues to be right in front of them. The time for them to start Patterson is long overdue.