I'm an admitted Fantasy baseball junkie.
As anyone close to me can attest, I look forward to our yearly draft in TSN's 16-team 5 x 5 mixed roto-league.
I like looking at as many projections that I can before I settle on the set that I think makes the most sense.
With that said though, I always keep this fact in my mind.
Projections – no matter how good or well thought out – are just educated guesses.
If you can find me the person who projected a Cy Young Award season from Cliff Lee last season, along with the projections that showed Carlos Quentin's breakout in 2008, then my faith will be restored.
Both of those performances along with that of Dustin Pedroia among others is what makes things so interesting – both in real baseball and in the fantasy world as well.
So with that in mind, and with the knowledge that TSN.ca Fantasy expert Scott Cullen's sleeper and bust fantasy video will be released on Friday, I thought I would share some thoughts on overrated and underrated fantasy players on each National League team.
Here's the only caveat before we start, some of these players might not be nor should be on your radar if you're playing in a league with less than 10-teams.
National League East:
Atlanta Braves: Javier Vazquez – underrated: Javy gets no love. A quick search around finds him being selected in the middle-to-late rounds in a lot of drafts. Keep in mind that he's made at least 32 starts for the last nine seasons and has had over 200 strikeouts in each of the last two seasons. While his ERA was an unacceptable 4.67, he is moving to the National League, which I think helps him in that category. He's not an elite pitcher, but there's no way that guys like Bronson Arroyo, Chris Carpenter and Jeremy Guthrie should be taken ahead of him.
Florida Marlins: Hanley Ramirez – overrated: This is not a joke, but more a quick word of caution. There is a strong likely hood that Ramirez won't start the season in the lead-off spot, but rather as the third hitter in the lineup. Ramirez is routinely taken first in most drafts, but if he stays in the third spot for most of the season, his steal numbers could drop. For some this won't change their draft strategy, for others they'll shift to Albert Pujols or Jose Reyes.
New York Mets: Francisco Rodriguez - overrated: K-Rod is one of the top five closers in the game, but don't over-pay for his record setting 62 save season with the Angels. While his numbers are still very good and a move to the National League could make them a little better, his strikeout to walk ratio has decreased for the last three seasons.
Philadelphia Phillies: Brett Myers – underrated: Myers really found his groove in the second half of last season, posting a 3.06 ERA after the All-Star break. He's a high strikeout pitcher whose bullpen stint in 2007 is now a distant memory. I would take him ahead of Ryan Dempster and in many pools you could get him in later rounds.
Washington Nationals: Elijah Dukes – underrated: Dukes, who has had a lot of off-field and injury issues in the past, has a good eye and a good power-stroke. The Nationals offence should be better and if he can stay healthy, he could be a late round steal with his 20/20 potential.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs: Carlos Zambrano – overrated: I think Big Z is a great pitcher, but he shouldn't be near your top 12 arms on draft day. His strikeout rate fell off the map last season, and for the second time in as many seasons he finished with an over 3.90 ERA. He's fine to have on your team, just don't reach to get him.
Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto – overrated: This isn't meant to player hate on a fellow Canadian, far from it. Votto will have a very a productive season, but because he's on almost everybody's list as a sleeper/breakout player he's started to creep up a little far. First base is a deep position, and in one-year pools, there are at least 10 guys at the position that should go before Votto.
Houston Astros: Michael Bourn – overrated: Bourn is fast and he stole 41 bases last season, but if you look at the numbers, that's all he did. He also hit .229, and only scored 57 runs which is terrible for a leadoff guy. I understand that he helps fill the need for speed, but you'd be better off thinking of more power/speed combos earlier on, and letting someone else reach or over pay for a one category player.
Milwaukee Brewers: Manny Parra - underrated: While he had a terrible second-half in 2008 and finished the season with a 4.39 ERA, the 26-year old left-hander picked up his strikeouts per nine in the second half, and you should take a flyer on him to be your four or fifth pitcher for his upside.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Maholm - underrated: This could apply to an entire cast of Pirates pitchers, but even if the club wins 65 games, someone will have to get wins. Maholm posted a 3.71 ERA last season with 139 K's, and seems to be trending up, yet he's largely unclaimed in a lot of leagues.
St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Ludwick – underrated: There seems to be very few people who seem to think that Ludwick's 37 home run, 113 RBI and 104 run season last year, when he also hit .299 is legitimate. I'm not sure those numbers are repeatable either, but to see guys like Xavier Nady, and Carlos Guillen get selected before him doesn't seem right to me.
NL West
Arizona Dimaondbacks: Max Scherzer - overrated: Scherzer performed well in his stint as a starter and relief pitcher last season. He struck out 66 hitters in 56 innings, but he's coming off shoulder surgery, and is the fifth starter. All of these factors are ignored as because of his upside he's being taken in the 40's to 50's of all starters. In one-year leagues, he's a decent upside play, but not where he's being taken.
Colorado Rockies: Chris Iannetta – underrated: While Iannetta will be drafted in your league, I think it's safe to say that he should be taken ahead of Jorge Posada, Mike Napoli and Matt Wieters for sure, and at least two of those guys seem to be routinely taken ahead of him. Both Posada and Napoli are coming off shoulder injuries that could cause each to have a slower start, and Wieters likely won't make the bigs until June. Iannetta did equally well at home as he did on the road, and his 18 home runs in 333 at-bats shows that his power is legitimate.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Manny Ramirez - overrated: I think Manny brings some character to baseball which it lacks sometimes, but in fantasy play that doesn't matter. What does are the numbers, and to me, Manny just isn't a top 3 outfielder. If you're drafting Manny that high you're assuming that he'll hit 35+ home runs in L.A. and stay healthy, both of which are questions in my mind. Then there's the fact that he gives you zero steals. I like Manny, but not where he's being taken in most drafts.
San Diego Padres: Jake Peavy - overrated: Let's get this out of the way, Peavy is a very good pitcher, but he's being drafted as a top five or six pitcher, which he might not be. First of all, he did have an arm issue last season, which could be worrisome, and then there is his home/road splits. In the last three seasons combined, Peavy has a 2.72 ERA at home and a 3.73 ERA on the road. Considering that he could be moved I would worry about this. Even if he stays with the Padres, there's no guarantee that he'll win more 11 games given the sad state that the team is in.
San Francisco Giants: Randy Winn - underrated: Yes Winn is old, and yes there isn't any upside. But guess what? For a fourth or fifth outfielder Winn is practically a sure thing. He'll be a 15-15 .280 guy that will score 80 runs. He's going late and even undrafted over guys that 'could be' something. Safe picks in fantasy aren't thrilling, but they can help you win.
My selections for the American League will be on-line on Friday.