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TSN Raptors Reporter

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DALLAS - Just about the only thing that seems predictable about these Toronto Raptors is their unpredictability.

With impressive victories over the Clippers, Spurs and Wizards going into the all-star break, they knocked off the first-place Hawks in Atlanta to begin a daunting road trip. After being thoroughly outplayed in Houston on the second night of a back-to-back, they've since coughed up sizeable leads in a pair of disheartening defeats, stretching their losing skid to three for only the second time this season.

Every night is it's own adventure. Regardless of the opponent (good, bad, healthy, or not), the venue (home or away) or the schedule (back-to-back or well rested), it's hard to feel confident about their chances, one way or another, in any given game.

The primary culprit is style of play, which - before you go pointing the finger squarely at their coaching staff - is at least partially personnel driven.

"We are a jump shooting team, a pick and roll, jump shooting team," Dwane Casey acknowledged before their most recent contest, a 99-92 defeat to the Mavericks on Tuesday. "Every once and a while we'll go inside to [Jonas Valanciunas], to DeMar [DeRozan] and to Kyle [Lowry] and to James [Johnson] now, but we're predominately a pick and roll, jump shooting team." 

That's the reality. It's the cause of much of their success on the offensive end when things are going well and the primary reason for their failure when they're not.

This week's back-to-back set in New Orleans and Dallas displayed the full spectrum. 

After squandering an 18-point advantage in Monday's loss to the Pelicans it was deja vu the following night. Facing one of the West's top teams in the Mavs, Toronto raced out to another promising start, shooting 53 per cent from the field in the first half, including 5-of-12 from three-point range.

As Dallas began to gnaw away at its deficit in the third, like New Orleans had done 24 hours earlier, the Raps fell apart down the stretch.

Why? As usual, Patrick Patterson put it best.

"Maybe just getting too comfortable," the candid forward said, attempting to explain similar collapses on consecutive nights. "We build up strong leads and I think just getting too lackadaisical, getting too comfortable, getting in a lot of iso situations rather than keep moving the ball, keep sharing the ball, keep executing our offence. I think we rely too much on just one, two passes and go straight into an iso. And whenever the opposing team makes a run, then I think people try to pick up the slack and put everything on their back. And it's hit or miss, it's 50/50, it either goes in or it doesn't go in and when it's not going in they come back and I think that's what's happened the last couple games."

Toronto shot 32 per cent in the period, recording just two assists and turning the ball over six times. DeRozan and Lowry missed all six of their attempts, many of them coming early in the shot clock.

Even at the best of times, the Raptors offence is largely predicated on taking and making tough shots. To their credit, they employee three players who are very good at it. The bulk of DeRozan's attempts come from mid-range while Lowry and Lou Williams are at their best when they're creating off the dribble with Williams drawing fouls and launching threes and Lowry barrelling his way into the lane. It's their strength individually. But when it comes down to it, tough shots are still tough shots. You live by them and you die by them, as they say.

When they're falling, the Raptors are very good and awfully tough to beat. They're 16-3 when DeRozan scores 20 or more points this season, 11-2 when Williams reaches that mark.

Of course, once they stop falling it can get ugly and fast. At that point, when their offence gets stale, they must rely on the defence to bail them out. Problem is, their defence - while improving recently - has been sporadic all year.

The Mavs took advantage of Toronto's quick and unproductive possessions in the fourth quarter, shooting 58 per cent in erasing the Raptors' lead, which was once 13. The Pelicans had hit 13 of 18 shots over the final 12 minutes.

Toronto's primary scorers are slumping hard, and they know it.

"They started blitzing me and double teaming me, but they are shots I should make and right now I'm not playing good basketball," Lowry admitted after Tuesday's loss. "Personally, I don't believe I am."

Lowry missed seven of his nine three-pointers, including two late in the game, both early in the clock. He's shooting 6-for-35 from long distance over the past five contests while DeRozan has hit more than 40 per cent of his shots in just one of his last 11 outings.

As they return home from a disappointing trip and look to regroup against another tough opponent in the Warriors, the key concept continues to be balance. They're a three-point shooting team, both Casey and Lowry have acknowledged as much, to some degree, over the previous two days. They rank ninth in the NBA in both three-point attempts and makes. It's a big part of what they do and a big reason why they're fourth in offensive efficiency, just behind Dallas. But for them to find any kind of consistency, something they're striving for entering the stretch run and the postseason, they'll need to diversify their attack.

DeRozan is capable of it when he plays the part of a facilitator, allowing the game to come to him. Perhaps that also means utilizing Valanciunas more predominately in the post.

"The key is making that adjustment when it's not your night," Casey said. "You don't have to just jack up a quick shot when the defence is in your face or they're back organized. Let's get into something where we're organized."

"It starts on the defensive end and shot selection. Shot selection for our team is huge. What's a good shot for one guy may not be a good shot for the next guy and that's a learning process for this team.