Revisiting the Jack Eichel trade

It is not often we see a win-win trade in the National Hockey League where both teams instantly realize benefits.

That’s generally because trade markets are set up between buyers and sellers – the latter usually moving assets when winning is no longer a priority, with those assets yielding future returns by way of prospects and draft picks.

This scenario happens across most salary-capped sports. But occasionally, two teams can conspire on a trade that sees the productivity of both teams improve in quick fashion.

As a Buffalo Bills fan, I like to point to the team’s acquisition of superstar wide receiver Stefon Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings in March of 2020 for a series of draft picks, including a first-rounder. In a matter of weeks, Minnesota turned that first-round pick into Justin Jefferson, an elite wideout in his own right. There was plenty more context to the deal, but Buffalo landed a critically important weapon coming out of a lengthy rebuild, while Minnesota was able to move off a somewhat disgruntled player and replace his production nearly one for one.

I think Buffalo may have managed to make this sort of trade once more, but this time in the NHL.

Remember last season’s mega trade that saw Jack Eichel moved to the Vegas Golden Knights for draft picks and a pair of forwards in Peyton Krebs and Alex Tuch?

We weren’t entirely sure how this trade would pan out, and to some degree, we still aren’t. At the time, Eichel, Tuch, and Krebs were all coming off significant injuries, with Eichel’s neck surgery the most concerning by far. On Buffalo’s side, the franchise was mired in a seemingly endless run of on-ice futility. Why would we expect this deal to pan out when so many had not?

That brings me to this season. If you have yet to catch either team in action, you have missed out. The Golden Knights have shaken off a two-season slump and are 5-2-0 (second in the NHL) to open October. The Sabres have been just as good, opening their season with a 4-1-0 record (seventh in the NHL). And who is driving the bus? Eichel in Vegas and Tuch in Buffalo.

Let’s start with Eichel. He was the big prize of the deal, and it was his playmaking ability that was supposed to ignite a routinely snakebitten Vegas attack. He has seven points (three goals, four assists) in seven games, so the individual production has been there in spades. But his line – which has mostly featured Reilly Smith and Phil Kessel, though we have seen him with Mark Stone a bit as well – has been electric.

We had reasonable suspicion that, when healthy, Eichel would be able to drive meaningful offence. He’s a wondrous playmaker and distributor, and on a Vegas team that owns the puck better than most, there would be ample opportunity. What’s interesting is that his defensive numbers are being bolstered, thanks in no small part to playing on a puck-dominant team (HockeyViz):

Now let’s look at Tuch. He has always been a reliable middle-six scorers, but the Syracuse, N.Y. native has upped his game since the trade. Tuch is averaging 1.1 goals per 60 minutes played since the trade, which (amongst qualified skaters) puts him inside of the NHL’s top 100, and on par with St. Louis’ Brandon Saad and Anaheim’s Trevor Zegras.

Tuch has been a man on a mission so far this season, scoring six goals (seven points total) in the opening five games. He’s playing with similar linemates as last season, with Tage Thompson as his centre and Jeff Skinner on the other side.

Much like the Eichel line in Vegas, this trio is making music:

Expected goals trail off a bit more aggressively than real goals, but there is context behind that. Chief among them: Buffalo is not a puck-dominant team and has played with leads an awful lot this season, which tends to lend itself to generating less total shooting volume on the offensive end.

What’s critically important for this still-rebuilding Sabres team is that expected goals are well above break-even – indicative of outperformance and the type of territorial play that, over stretches, can drive lofty goal differentials. And yes, this line is nearly three goals better than their opponents in real goals every 60 minutes played.

It will take many more months and years for us to have a true winner and loser established from this deal. But one of hockey’s biggest trades in recent history is, at least so far, yielding big results for two teams on the upswing this October.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey