U.S. Open: Alcaraz, Sabalenka favourites to win U.S. Open

The U.S. Open begins on Monday in New York City. 

While Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka enter the event as heavy favourites, there is never a bad time to throw a dart or two at the board and see if you can strike gold. 

So join me as I discuss who FanDuel has listed as the expected contenders this week and who I think might show up to spoil the party. 

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Alcaraz looking to make more history 

It’s no surprise to see Alcaraz as the favourite on the men's side of the draw. 

The 21-year-old is looking to win his third grand slam of the year, and is the defending U.S. Open champion. 

His win earlier this year at Wimbledon was historic for many reasons, the largest being his timeline. 

Carlos won his fourth grand slam three years before Novak Djokovic, two years before Roger Federer and he also beat out Rafael Nadal, who won his fourth when he was 22. 

If Alcaraz is going to add to his grand slam total at this U.S. Open, he’ll be creating another piece of history. No player on the men's side has gone back-to-back at this event since Federer won five straight times from 2004 to 2008. 

It’ll be tough for Alcaraz to even make it to the final this year, as he has ended up on the same side of the draw as world No. 1 Jannik Sinner and world No. 5 Daniil Medvedev. 

The other side of the bracket is headlined by Djokovic, who has won at least one grand slam every year since 2018 and only has one last chance to keep that streak alive at this event. 

Speaking of last chances, Djokovic made good on potentially his last chance to win a gold medal at the Olympics last month when he defeated Alcaraz on clay in straight sets. 

Longshot to consider 

Historically speaking, the U.S. Open has been the best chance for a men's to win his first grand slam. 

Three of the last four U.S. champions were first-time winners:

Dominic Thiem 2020

Medvedev 2021

Carlos 2022

Meanwhile, you have to go back to 2008 to add up the other three first-time grand slam winners in the other three events combined:

Sinner 2024 Australia

Stan Wawrinka 2014 Australia

Djokovic 2008 Australia 

So with that in mind, I’m targeting a player looking to break through and win his first grand slam, while also being on the opposite side of the draw from Alcaraz and Sinner. 

Enter Matteo Berrettini at 65-1. 

Many people have overlooked Berrettini’s 2024, but the Italian might be on the way back. 

In 2023, he was forced to withdraw from this event due to an ankle injury he suffered during the second round. The WD meant Berrettini was bowing out of the U.S. Open before the fourth round for the first time since 2018. 

After missing the first two grand slams of 2024, he returned for Wimbledon, only to run into Sinner in the second round. 

Sinner would handle his fellow countryman in four sets, but it was clear that Berrettini’s game was in good shape. 

Since then, Berrettini has won two tournaments, including the Swiss Open, where he defeated Félix Auger-Aliassime in the quarters and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semifinal. 

He is currently -8000 to win his first-round matchup, and if he can upset Taylor Fritz in the second round, I would expect him to make a deep run at this tournament. 

Can Sabalenka bounce back? 

After the opening set of the 2023 U.S. Open final, it looked like Sabalenka was finally going to break through at this tournament. 

After losing in the semifinals in 2021 and 2022, she held a 1-0 set lead over American Coco Gauff last year. 

However, Gauff came storming back to steal the spotlight and win her first grand slam, becoming the first American woman to win in New York since Sloane Stephens in 2017. 

Sabalenka has been dominant at grand slams in 2024, defending her 2023 Australian Open title and making the quarterfinals at the French Open. 

She was forced to skip Wimbledon due to a shoulder injury, but she has played three events since then, winning one and reaching the semis in another. 

If Sabalenka wins the U.S. Open, it’ll be a tall task based on history.

The last time a woman lost in a U.S. Open final and returned to win the event the following summer was Serena Williams in 2012 after dropping the 2011 final to Samantha Stosur. 

Williams and Justine Henin (2006-07) are the only women since Y2K to win a U.S. Open one year after losing in the final. However, Williams did it twice as she also won in 2002, beating her sister Venus after losing to her in the 2001 final.

Only five women have made a U.S. Open final and returned to that stage the following year since 2000. 

Longshot to consider 

When it comes to longshots, you have to get a little lucky and hope you end up on the right side of a coin flip. 

And that’s how I feel about this 80-1 bomb on Jeļena Ostapenko. 

The 2017 French Open champion has a brutal opponent in the opening round facing Naomi Osaka. 

Osaka, the two-time U.S. Open champion, has been working her way back into form in 2024, but the results haven’t been the same since before she stepped away from the game to have her first child. 

I love Osaka, I think she’s awesome, but she was also just beaten in qualifying for the Cincinnati Open, and I’m not sure if her game is ready for grand slam-level tennis. 

Ostapenko has been sloppy since her run to a quarterfinal at Wimbledon but I think an opening-round win over Osaka will give her the boost she needs to kick this event into high gear.