3rd and 1: Best Bets for Week 2 of the CFL Season

Let’s begin with some self-reflection. Two for three with my week 1 picks is a strong start to the season, but it also leaves room for improvement.  For those of you who decided to take a wait-and-see approach to the CFL season (scared that week 1 bets are for suckers), week 2 can present a whole new set of problems.  

Beware of recency bias!

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Ottawa Redblacks
This is an obvious spot to ignore recency bias and trust the Grey Cup favourites to bounce back, right?  Not so fast.  There are warning signs in Winnipeg.  The Bombers were blown out last week at home. They lost star receiver Kenny Lawler to a broken hand, and star running back Brady Oliveira is OUT on Thursday night.  The offensive line looked leaky in big moments, and the defence is missing some difference-makers from years past.  Zach Collaros has 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his last 2 games, both losses.  His former backup, Dru Brown, will be starting for the Redblacks, and he has weapons.  Dominique Rhymes returned from BC, Bralon Addison is healthy for now, and Justin Hardy had over a thousand yards last year.  On top of all that, Jaelon Acklin is still in his prime.  I’d prefer if the spread was still over 7, but I’ll still be fading the Bombers until further notice.

THE PICK: REDBLACKS +6.5

Calgary Stampeders at BC Lions

And you should love it way more than you hate it
[buddy] you mad? I thought that you’d be happy I made it (Woo)

Wooooo!  50 Cent will be ‘in da club’ on Saturday night for the Lions home opener in front of about ‘fiddy’ thousand fans at BC Place.  It’s going to be electric.  And it should give the Lions a taste of what playing in the 111th Grey Cup game could feel like in November.  

After a stumble to begin the season last week in Toronto, the huge crowd and celebrity guest should be motivating rather than distracting for a group with big game aspirations.

THE PICK: LIONS -7.5 vs Stampeders

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats
A tale of two ageing gunslingers.  Someone should write a country song about this Sunday night matchup.  While Trevor Harris has been repeatedly written off despite continuing to win, Bo Levi Mitchell seems to get more benefit of the doubt.  He entered the season as the 6th choice to be the league’s Most Outstanding Player, but since the Covid-cancelled season in 2021, Bo has more interceptions than touchdowns.  On the other hand, Harris just put together his 24th career game-winning drive in week 1, moving him into a tie for the 10th most in league history. The Ti-Cats are favourites for the 2nd week in a row, they should get a boost from their home crowd at the Donut Box, but I think the Riders are the better team.

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS (+1.5) at Tiger-Cats

CFL Fantasy Best Bet: NIC DEMSKI ($8.9 K)
I made a strong case to beware the Bombers, but I believe in Nic Demski this week.  We know he’s capable of huge games. The problem has been predicting when they’re going to happen, until now!  Here’s why: 1) No Kenny Lawler leaves a lot of opportunity in the passing game.  2) No Brady Oliveira leaves a lot of opportunity in the rushing/short yardage game. Demski can do it all.  3) After a bad turnover last week, he will have some extra motivation in Ottawa.  Mixed with some added opportunity?  The recipe is right for Demski to deliver.