3rd and 1: Best Bets for Week 20 of the CFL Season

There’s little left to decide as the 2024 regular season runs out.  So, let’s pad our personal stats and stay sharp for the approaching playoffs.  It’s been a nice little run for 3rd and 1.  We were 3-for-3 with last week’s picks. We’re 8-and-1 in the last 3 weeks and 10-and-2 since mid-September.  And, if you turn this column’s fantasy plays into prop bets, well, the stats speak for themselves.  OK, that’s enough. Any more dancing and I could draw a flag.  Let’s lock in for week 20.

Calgary Stampeders at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

It’s been a minute since there was a reason to back the Stamps.  But Matt Shiltz is making the start against his former team.  It seems like a long time ago, but he started a playoff game for Hamilton last season, over Bo Levi Mitchell.  And there goes any motivational advantage that Shiltz might have in his return to Hamilton, because Bo is out to prove that he’s still among the best quarterbacks in the league.  He’s also facing his former team and the two time MOP is currently leading the CFL in passing yards, something he’s never done over the course of an entire season in his career.

THE PICK: TIGER-CATS -3.5

Ottawa Redblacks at Toronto Argonauts

This is the one game on the slate with any playoff implications.  We already know these teams will meet in the EAST semi-final, the only thing left to decide is the venue.  That’s no small detail considering how good these teams are at home, and how average they’ve been on the road.  That’s especially true for the Redblacks who have the league’s very best home record, and its second worst road record.  But, Ottawa is getting healthier.  Dru Brown back under centre will be a boost.  Justin Hardy could also be back.  Coach Bob Dyce didn’t like the suggestion from a reporter last week that they’re limping into the playoffs. Perhaps a date with the Argos, an opponent they put up a season-high 41 points against in week 14, is just what the doctor ordered.

THE PICK: REDBLACKS +4.5

Montreal Alouettes at BC Lions  

I had just sat down next to Davis Sanchez to prep for what was an ugly Thursday Night Football game when I said to no one in particular: “the Als are underdogs.”

Chez piped in and told me that they probably won’t play anybody.  Then I turned to him and said what I think has been an under the radar storyline for the league’s best team:

“But Davis Alexander is good.” 

“YA he is!” says Chez.

It’s why the Als are only a slight underdog with the expectation that they’ll be resting most of their starters.  For the Lions, Vernon Adams was definitely a good QB at the start of the season.  Against an Als team with nothing to play for, it sets up nicely for him to re-acquaint himself with the offence ahead of the West Semi.  Forget the points.  I want to believe he can orchestrate a win in what will be BC’s final home game of the season.  Unless of course they can make it all the way to the 111th Grey Cup.

THE PICK: LIONS ML (-130) 

CFL Fantasy Best Bet: GREG BELL ($ 6.5 K)

CFL Running backs must have the Stamps circled on their schedules.  Calgary is allowing a league-high 127.3 rushing yards a game this season.  Bell slots back into the starting lineup just in time to take advantage.  His rushing yards prop has gone from 70.5 to 78.5 and I think the over is still the right side.  But for fantasy purposes Bell is also involved in the pass game, averaging over four catches per start, with six total touchdowns in six games.