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I often like to sit and think about athletes and inevitability. 

Sometimes, you watch a sporting event, and something just feels inevitable. 

Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady in the fourth quarter. Inevitable. 

Rafael Nadal on clay, Serena Williams… on any surface. Inevitable. 

Michael Phelps in the pool. Usain Bolt on the track. Inevitable

Xander Scheffulle sniffing contention on a Sunday and ejecting. Inevitable. 

The more we watch, the more clear things can seem. 

This is why when Auston Matthews and the Toronto Maple Leafs dropped the puck in Arizona Wednesday night, it wasn’t a question for me whether Matthews would score. It was simply about how many. 

It just felt inevitable. 

The American would go on to score his 50th and 51st goals of the year last night, cashing his anytime goal prop at -135. At that price, Matthews went off as the 8th shortest price this season to score a goal. 

I guess the traders at FanDuel could sense the inevitable feeling as well. 

Let’s dive into how last night affected some NHL markets. 

By the way, if you’re wondering where Domenic Padula, the usual author of this column, is. Have no fear. Our fearless leader has taken a much-deserved vacation and will be back next week. 

For now, the slow cooker is rocking, there are a few beverages in the fridge, and Dom told me to make myself feel like I’m at home. His final instructions were, “Just don’t mortgage the house on any golf bets.” 

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday, Feb. 21.

 

Matthews’ a coin flip to score 70 

Things move fast in the world of sports betting. 

Just yesterday afternoon, I highlighted some special Matthews markets on FanDuel. 

Matthews 70+ goals (+170) and Matthews to score 60 goals in 60 games (100-1). 

Since then, Matthews scored twice against his home state, Arizona Coyotes, and those markets are moving. 

Matthews is now +110 to score 70 goals this season, giving an implied probability of 47.62 per cent, up 10 per cent from yesterday’s column. 

Meanwhile, after opening at 120-1 to score 60 in 60 games, that number quickly was adjusted to 100-1 and crept down to 80-1 in the afternoon before the market was pulled off the board. 

Matthews would still need nine goals in his next six games to reach the number, but I’m curious to see how FanDuel will price that prop again if it goes back to market. 

In the awards section, Matthews continues to make headway. Just six days ago, you could get the American at 14-1 to win this year's Hart Trophy, the annual award for the most valuable player in the National Hockey League. 

Today, he is +280 and now the third choice to win the award, leapfrogging Connor McDavid who now sits at +340 despite a two-point performance of his own last night against the Bruins. 

Matthews still trails the favourite Nathan McKinnon (+180) and Nikita Kucherov (+270), and will get a chance to go head-to-head with McKinnon Saturday night when the two meet in Colorado. 

And by the way, no player in this league has scored 75 goals since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny scored 76 goals in 1993. Matthews is now +750 to re-write that stat this season. The same odds that the Kansas City Chiefs opened up with to win Super Bowl LIX next year in New Orleans. 

 

"Ba ba ba ba ba basketball"

Finally, the NBA All-Star break is coming to an end. 

There are 24 teams in action Thursday night as teams gear up for a push to the playoffs. 

The Toronto Raptors are back in action this evening, hosting the Brooklyn Nets and are currently two-point favourites. Be sure to tune into the broadcast to catch Wesley Cheng’s Same Game Parlay for the night. 

 

Speaking of Wes, earlier this week, he put pen to paper on his latest edition of Setting the Pick. In the article, he highlighted three teams he is targeting out of the break after noticing a few trends leading into the break. 

Later tonight, the Golden State Warriors will host a Los Angeles Lakers team without LeBron James as both teams look to turn things around. 

Currently, the Lakers and Warriors are the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds in the Western Conference. 

The Lakers (30-26) are +102 to make the playoffs, while the Warriors (27-26) are +114. 

 

Spring Training baseball on TSN 

Basketball isn’t the only sport making it’s long-awaited return today. We have Spring Training baseball to talk about too. 

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are the only game on the slate today, with the Dodgers sitting at -118 to win their first game in the Shohei Ohtani era. 

While it remains to be seen what position players will suit up Thursday afternoon, we have a projected matchup on the mound of 25-year-old Gavin Stone for the Dodgers and former Toronto Blue Jays first-round pick Joe Musgrove for the Padres. 

The Dodgers, after spending a historic amount of money this winter, enter the season as favourites to win the World Series at +320. 

 

They are also the favourite to have the best record in the MLB at +165. 

The Atlanta Braves come in second to win the World Series at +450, while seven of the next eight teams on the list are from the American League. 

The Toronto Blue Jays come in at 20-1, tied with the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins. 

Toronto’s win total is 87.5 games, a number they have cleared in three straight seasons.