Bellus’ Betting Breakdown: Arnold Palmer Invitational First Click

The Florida Swing continues this week on the PGA Tour with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Golf Course.

PGA Tour winners this season have fallen into one of two categories. In non-Signature Events, the trend has been longshots, with the last three winners in those tournaments all claiming their first career Tour victories. Thomas Detry kicked off this run at the WM Phoenix Open, followed by Brian Campbell and Joe Highsmith.

But this week marks the fourth Signature Event of the season, and the winners of the first three have been big names near the top of the odds board

Join me as I highlight some key stats and trends to help you make your picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, along with sharing my first click of the week.

Bay Hill Golf Course history

The two best players in the world, according to the Official World Golf Rankings and Data Golf, rank No. 1 and No. 2 in course history this week.

In four starts at this event, Scottie Scheffler’s worst finish is a T15 in 2020 – his debut at the tournament. Since then, he’s won the event twice and tied for fourth in 2023. The 28-year-old has played in three events this year since returning from a hand injury over the holidays, notching two Top-10 finishes (T9, T3) and a T25 in Phoenix.

Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy has teed it up here 10 times and finished inside the Top 20 in eight of those starts. He won the event in 2018 and nearly did so again with a T2 in 2023. In his last five worldwide starts, McIlroy has racked up two wins, two other top-five finishes, and his worst result was a T17 at The Genesis Invitational.

Finally, Corey Conners has been a fixture on API leaderboards in recent years. The Canadian missed the cut in his first two tries at this event but has since turned it around, finishing third in 2021 and adding two other Top-20 finishes. After a T5 in his first start of the year, Conners has struggled, failing to crack the Top 20 in four straight events. In 2024, he went eight straight tournaments outside the Top 20 before a T18 at this event.

BEST IN 2025

We’re only two months into the season, so let’s not overreact to some of these numbers, but Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas appear ready to get back to their winning ways.

Morikawa’s last win came at the 2023 ZOZO Championship and he’s won just twice since winning his second major at the 2021 Open Championship.

Morikawa has finished inside the top 20 in all three starts this year and finished solo second in the opening tournament of the year.

Known most for his elite iron play, Morikawa has very quietly become one of the better short-game players in the world, ranking inside the top 10 in 3-putt avoidance, one-putt percentage, putts per round, scrambling and strokes gained around the green in 2024.

As for Thomas, the 31-year-old hasn’t won a tournament since the 2022 PGA Championship.

This year in five starts on tour he has three finishes inside the top 10, something he has failed to do in three trips to the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  

MODEL MONDAY  

It’s just another Model Monday.  

Trying to cash on Sunday  

‘Cause that’s my fun day.  

My sit on the couch and watch golf day.  

It’s just another Model Monday.

I broke down the model process earlier this year in my preview for The Sentry. Click here and scroll to that section of the article to learn more.

This week, six players hit my threshold of 80 or higher. They are:

Rory McIlroy: 90.9

Scottie Scheffler: 86.74

Joe Highsmith: 85.9

Tommy Fleetwood: 83.75

Xander Schauffele: 80.56

Justin Thomas: 80.42

After topping my model and winning at 120-1 last week, Joe Highsmith finds himself in elite company this week, trailing only McIlroy and Scheffler. This will be his first time playing this event, and he’s sitting at 200-1 to win.

As for Tommy Fleetwood, the Euro has teed it up here eight times but has only cracked the Top 10 twice.

Xander Schauffele returns to action this week after missing two months with a rib injury. In three starts at this course, he’s yet to finish inside the Top 20.

First Click

This is only our second "First Click" column of the year, and you might’ve forgotten we kicked things off with a winner in Week 1 at The Sentry, where Ludvig Åberg landed a Top 10 at plus-money. This week, I’m swinging for the fences with an outright bet.

The odds board is not exactly inspiring this week. If I’m being honest, I’ll probably attack the board for Puerto Rico harder than Bay Hill. Still, Will Zalatoris caught my eye, and I clicked him this morning at 50-1 on FanDuel as my first outright of the week.

Zalatoris’ best finish in an event this year is a tie for 12th at the American Express and he hasn’t won a tournament since the FedEx St. Jude in 2022.

Zalatoris’ best finish this year is a T12 at the American Express, and he hasn’t won a tournament since the FedEx St. Jude in 2022. That said, the 28-year-old’s stat profile excites me for this week. He’s gained strokes tee-to-green in three of his four starts this year but hasn’t yet had a breakout week with the putter.

He’s played Bay Hill four times and notched a T4 last year, where he gained just over one stroke on the greens.

With all the attention and criticism last week about PGA National playing easier than expected, I’m betting we see a tougher test at Bay Hill this time around—something that should play right into Zalatoris’ wheelhouse.

Some guys thrive at birdie fests, but that’s not Will Z. Five of his six best career finishes have come in majors or on courses where par is your friend. This week, I expect par to be a solid score on every hole, with birdies few and far between.