It feels like just yesterday that we were gearing up for the 2022 Players Championship, the first of golf’s five major tournaments in the span of five months on the men’s side of the game.

Now, we head to the Old Course at St Andrews in Scotland on Thursday for the final major of the 2022 season.

What a ride it has been, and what a tournament we have in store to put a bow on men’s major championship golf for 2022.

For the first time since 2015, we return to St Andrews for the Open Championship.

Zach Johnson (15-under par) beat out Marc Leishman and Louis Oosthuizen in a playoff that year to claim the Claret Jug.

Oosthuizen was the winner here in 2010 with a score of 16 under.

A few trends to keep in mind before getting things started, via Andy Lack:

  • Nine of the last 10 winners had at least one prior Top-10 in an Open. 
  • Nine of the last 10 Open Championship winners have ranked Top-40 in the OWGR.
  • Eight of the past 10 Open winners have posted a Top-20 in one of their previous two majors, and every single one of the past 10 winners have posted a win or a runner-up at a major at some point in their career.
  • Eight of the last 10 Open Championship winners had posted a Top-10 in at least one of their previous three starts.

Before we dive into these picks, it’s important to note, as of Tuesday morning, the weather for the first two rounds seems quite reasonable.

With a course as open and exposed as St Andrews, wind is one of (if not the biggest) defences the Old Course can have.

Often at Open Championships which side of the draw you end up on can play a big factor. Just last week at the Scottish Open, for example, we saw the morning side of the draw get the favourable weather conditions which led to easier scoring.

But with no clear advantage, we’re going to move forward assuming everyone is on a level playing field.

I strongly suggest keeping an eye on the weather over the next few days before placing your final bets.

OUTRIGHT WINNERS

Xander Schauffele +1400, Top 20 after Round 1 +185

If there is someone playing better golf at the moment than Xander Schauffele, I’d like to meet him.

That person clearly hasn’t been in the field at any of the last three events Schauffele has teed it up in.

The American grabbed a much-needed win at the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago, and hasn’t taken his foot off the gas since.

Schauffele followed it up with a win at the JP McManus Pro-Am, and came back a few days later to win the Scottish Open.

For Schauffele, the three wins come after years of wondering why he wasn’t stacking up any victories.

Now, he arrives at St Andrews as one of the favourites, and for good reason.

Schauffele has picked up at least eight strokes gained: total, in five of his last six events.

His putting could be a huge factor for success this week as St Andrews will provide a tricky test on the greens due to their above average size.

If you watched the Scottish Open you would’ve seen Schauffele hit a number of tremendous lag-putts on Sunday, while under pressure coming down the stretch.

If he’s able to carry that game to the Old Course, I like his chances to be in the mix again Sunday afternoon, and think he’ll get off to a hot start on Thursday.

Jordan Spieth +1500, Top 10 +175 

Jordan Spieth and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good 14th Hole at the Scottish Open that Probably Cost him the Tournament.

My oh my, that was a mouthful!

A pulled tee shot on the 140-yard par 3 14th virtually ended Spieth’s chances of winning last weekend as he’d go on to make double bogey and fall several shots off the lead.

The weird thing for Speith is that he didn’t seem to play that well, and still was a massive gainer across the board in strokes gained.

Spieth has made a habit of being a big gainer recently as he’s gained at least five strokes on the field in six of his last eight tournaments, which includes a win at the RBC Heritage after missing the cut at The Masters.

Spieth returns to St Andrews with unfinished business.

In 2015 he missed out on a playoff by one shot, the same day a four-putt on the eighth led to a double bogey.

Now, he’s back and looking to get in the mix at a major for the first time this year.

It’s been a disappointing major season for Spieth this year, and I expect him to seize the opportunity of playing in another Open Championship at the historic St Andrews.

It appears Spieth has figured something out on the greens as well.

Since being just brutal with the flatstick at the PGA Championship, Spieth has rolled the rock just fine.

In the five events since, he’s gained on the green in four of those and was a very small loser in the fifth.

His tee-to-green numbers haven’t looked this good since 2017, and when you add in his experience at this course, I love his chances to be in the mix on Sunday.

Will Zalatoris +2700, Top 20 +135

I contemplated just going back to my U.S. Open preview and reposting my writeup on Zalatoris for this tournament, because not much has changed.

Going into the U.S. Open, everything about Zalatoris’ profile projects a future star, and No. 1 golfer.

Coming off another near-miss at a major, the 25-year-old has five Top 5’s in the last seven majors.

We’ve yet to see Zalatoris contend at an Open Championship as there was no tournament in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and he withdrew with an injury in 2021.

Still, the lack of track record won’t scare me away here as the Old Course should fit his game well. Despite missing the cut last week at the Scottish Open, he gained over two strokes on the field tee-to-green, and gave all of those back on the putting greens.

Despite putting struggles being a big talking point for Zalatoris, it’s something that hasn’t plagued him at all in majors.

This year, he was a massive gainer on the greens at Augusta (5.59), Southern Hills (4.66) and at the U.S. Open when he popped for a career-best 7.21 strokes gained putting.

Long story less long, when the lights shine bright, you want Will Zalatoris in your corner.

Collin Morikawa +2800, Top 20 +145 

Last year’s Open Championship winner had all of us fooled at the U.S. Open when he showed up and talked about the state of his game.

At his press conference prior to the event, Morikawa talked about how much he was struggling with his golf swing, and how he had lost his ability to hit a cut on command.

When one of the best approach players on the planet tells you he’s lost his signature shot, alarm bells start to go off.

And yet, there was Morikawa finishing fifth at one of the game’s biggest tests of your golf swing.

He enters this week on the heels of missing the cut at the Scottish Open, a tournament he’s yet to have success at, but his numbers on the putting greens have me encouraged.

Morikawa has gained nearly three strokes on the greens in back-to-back events, and if he’s able to do the same this week, I trust him to take advantage of these massive fairways and give himself opportunities to score with his stellar approach game.

SLEEPERS

Below are some quick hits on a few guys that I think could end up in the winner’s circle on Sunday if they play well and get a few bounces.

Louis Oosthuizen +4000, Top 20 +230

After a win here in 2010 and a tie for second in 2015, it seems obvious that Oosthuizen loves this course.

While it’s been a weird season for the South African, his form hasn’t seemed to matter the two times he played St Andrews in Open Championships.

He had missed five consecutive cuts before winning here in 2010, and finished T73 and missed the cut in the two tournaments prior to his T2 here in 2015.

Let’s see if he’s got any magic left in him this time around.

Max Homa +4500, Top 30 +130 

Enjoying easily the best season on his PGA Tour career, Homa enters this week looking to improve on his debut performance in this event when he came in 40th in 2021.

Since February, only six golfers rank higher in the ball-striking category than Homa, something that if he does well at St Andrews will give him a lot of chances to score.

One reason I like Homa this week is his numbers inside of 125 yards.

Homa ranks fifth overall on approach shots from 50-125 yards, something he’ll have a chance to do a lot of this week at the Old Course.

Seamus Power +8000, Top 30 +155

According to CBS’ Kyle Porter, only 13 players have made the cut in all three majors this season. And while Will Zalatoris leads the way with an aggregate score of -13, Seamus Power finds himself sixth on the list with a combined score of +4.

Power enters this week in fine forum as well, gaining at least 3.8 strokes total in five of his last six events.

At 80-1 I think he’s priced fairly, but I like the number on him to crack the top 30 at +155, something he has done at all three majors this season.

Kevin Kisner +16000, Top 30 +410 

There are plenty of golf tournaments Kevin Kisner shows up at where he just doesn’t have a chance.

As one of the shorter players on Tour, Kisner is often put at a disadvantage on longer courses due to his inability to keep up with longer hitters.

But with St Andrews being as short as it is, and with the course expected to be fully baked and fast, Kisner can use the ground to his advantage and keep up with most players.

Kisner has three top 6 finishes this season, and enters this week on the heels of a T6 at the Travelers where he gained over 10 strokes in his short game.

He already has a runner-up finish in this tournament on his resume, and made his Open Championship debut on this course in 2015.

This week, I think this Georgia Bulldog might have some extra bite to go with his bark.

FIRST-ROUND LEADERS

As if betting on the winners wasn’t enough, let’s see if we can figure out who’s going to be leading this thing after 18 holes.

Rory McIlroy +1400

I needed some exposure to Rory this week and while I don’t love the 10-1 number in the outright market I’m a fan of him here at +1400.

Nobody, and I mean literally nobody, has been better in the first round of tournaments since January 1 than Rory.

McIlroy is averaging 3.73 strokes gained: Total in the first round of tournaments this year, including when he gained 5.77 in the first round of the U.S. Open and 7.83 at the PGA Championship.

Shane Lowry +2900

According to the strokes gained data, only one golfer has been better than Shane Lowry since the start of the calendar year, and it’s Rory McIlroy.

I’ll happily roll the dice on Lowry to get off to a hot start at a championship he has had a lot of success at in recent years.

Sam Burns +4100

The ability to go low and get hot with the putter is all I need to get behind Sam Burns at 41-1 to be the first-round leader.

Burns struggled mightily around the greens last week in the Scottish Open, and if he tightens up on Thursday he might find himself sleeping on the 18-hole lead.

Kevin Kisner +10000

I really like Kisner this week, can you tell?