Dec 11, 2021
Best Bets: TSN EDGE staff NFL best bets for Sunday
Bryon Pringle has emerged as Kansas City’s second-busiest wide receiver over the past three games, but oddsmakers haven’t fully adjusted to his increased exposure as his over/under for Sunday’s game is currently set at just 23.5 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the slumping New Orleans Saints just got some welcome news as Alvin Kamara is back and his return couldn’t come at a better time as they visit the New York Jets on Sunday.
![Byron Pringle, The Canadian Press Byron Pringle](/polopoly_fs/1.1704874.1633922326!/fileimage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_620/byron-pringle.jpg)
Week 13 was a clean one for the TSN EDGE staff, as we went 3-0 with our best bets for Sunday.
Chris Amberley and Luke Bellus had the Pittsburgh Steelers and the under, respectively, in their AFC North showdown with the Baltimore Ravens.
The Steelers won that game outright 20-19 as a 4.5-point underdog.
Meanwhile, yours truly continued to ride the Jonathan Taylor train with the over 105.5 rushing yards, and he rushed for 143 yards and two scores as the Indianapolis Colts cruised to a 31-0 win over the Houston Texans.
Taylor remains the consensus favourite to win AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year at +150.
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is the second choice at +200.
No other player is listed at shorter than 20-to-1 odds entering Sunday’s games.
The Colts are off this week, so you won’t see a bet on Taylor featured in this column.
Can the staff deliver another 3-0 performance this weekend?
Here are some of our best bets for Sunday’s games.
Domenic Padula: Byron Pringle Over 23.5 Receiving Yards
The Taylor train has pulled over to refuel for the final stretch with a bye this week, which had me searching for somebody reliable that I could count on to deliver as my best bet for Week 14.
I think Pringle can be that guy for me this week.
The Chiefs have won five straight entering Sunday’s showdown with the rival Las Vegas Raiders, who they just beat 41-14 three weeks ago.
Patrick Mahomes threw the ball 50 times in that game, and I think the Chiefs will go back to the air again in this one.
Five different options finished that win over Las Vegas with four or more targets: Travis Kelce (10), Tyreek Hill (10), Darrell Williams (9), Byron Pringle (5) and Demarcus Robinson (4).
While Kelce and Hill should be busy again, Pringle has emerged as Kansas City’s second-busiest wide receiver over the past three games, with 11 targets over that span.
That includes four catches for 46 yards and a touchdown on five targets in that win over the Raiders.
Fortunately for us, oddsmakers haven’t fully adjusted to Pringle’s increased exposure, as his over/under for Sunday’s game is currently set at just 23.5 receiving yards.
I think Pringle should be good for around 3 or 4 catches in this one, which should be enough for the over to cash on his receiving yards prop once again.
I’ll take Pringle to go over 23.5 receiving yards my best bet for Sunday.
Chris Amberley: New Orleans Saints -5.5 at New York Jets
2021 has been the year of the underdog in the NFL. ‘Dogs went 106-84-1 (55.2 per cent) against the spread through the first 13 weeks, a record that would be significantly better if you removed the New York Jets from the equation.
The J-E-T-S are a league-worst 3-9 against the spread this season, and have failed to cover in three straight home games. They’ll host the slumping New Orleans Saints on Sunday, which got some welcome news this week.
Alvin Kamara is back for this game, and his return couldn’t come at a better time. New Orleans has dropped five straight, and their offence has gone into the tank.
Without Kamara in the lineup, the Saints are 0-4 this season, and average just 18 points per contest. With Kamara in the lineup however, they’re 5-3 and average over 25 points per outing.
By the numbers, New Orleans is head and shoulders above New York. They rank 15 spots higher per overall DVOA, and are the league’s fifth best defence per DVOA, while the Jets rank 32nd.
New York is especially vulnerable against the run, grading out last per Pro Football Focus’ metrics, while the Saints rush the ball at a top-10 rate, and will be incentivized to run even more thanks to Kamara’s return.
On the other side of the ball, Zach Wilson is showing signs of improvement but we should temper expectations in this matchup. New Orleans grades out as the seventh best coverage unit per PFF, while Wilson still owns the third worst passing grade among 50 qualified quarterbacks.
Luke Bellus: Houston Texans +8.5 vs Seattle Seahawks
Nobody said picking winners would be easy.
And picking winners definitely doesn't have to be pretty.
Seattle travels to Houston on Sunday as a big favoruite and I simply can’t lay that many points with this Seahawks team.
Last week, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks picked up a massive 30-23 win over their divisional rivals.
We’ve seen it before, and we’ll see it again. Team’s coming off a big divisional win can be vulnerable to a letdown the next week.
A good example was Thursday night when we saw the Pittsburgh Steelers come out flat in the first half after an emotional last-second win over the Baltimore Ravens the week before.
I haven’t been a big believer in this Seahawks offence since Wilson came back from injury, and Pete Carroll’s track record tells you to fade Seattle this week.
The Seahawks have covered just 42.6 per cent of the time as a road favorite since Carroll took over as head coach in 2010 (only five teams have been worse over that time period).
Now they travel two time zones west-to-east for a 1:00 p.m. ET start against a team playing at home for the second straight week.
It’s not going to be pretty, but I’m riding with Davis Mills and the Texas +8.5 this week.