3rd And 1: Best Bets for CFL Week 14

In honour of those who work for a living, let’s not labour too much over this week’s picks. There is still some summer to enjoy before school starts, and the spectacle of four down football floods across the border.

The long weekend kicks off with a potential Grey Cup preview. I wrote last week that the Als were in a class of their own, before they were brought down by the Bombers. Winnipeg scored 44 points in the victory, nine more than any other team has managed against Montreal. It snapped a seven-game win streak and was just Davis Alexander’s second career regular-season loss as a starter. Meanwhile, the Lions have won five in a row after dismantling the Redblacks on the road last Sunday. Zander Horvath to have 50 yards and a touchdown was my player prop pick for week 13, and it wasn’t much of a sweat. He finished with 164 yards and four scores. It will be harder for either team to pad their stats in Montreal, making this matchup a no pick. Though I still plan to enjoy it thoroughly, with an eye on at least one prop.

PLAYER PROP: TRAVIS THEIS UNDER 85.5 RUSHING YARDS

Theis is third in CFL rushing yards and he’s gone over this number five times in the last seven games. He’s had three games with at least 100 yards in that span. But in last week’s loss, he finished with just 31 yards. His only other game with under 80 yards since week 8 was the Als’ only one score game during that span. Without a secure second half lead, Theis’ carries will be harder to come by. Even if the Als are in control, BC’s run defence is the best in the league. They’re allowing under 60 yards per game on the ground, over 13 yards fewer than any other team.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders

Two weeks ago in Edmonton, the Bombers looked rejuvenated while jumping out to a double-digit first-half lead, only to squander it in the second half. It was a deflating loss; one I wasn’t sure they could rebound from easily. Only a week later, they put together a full 60 minutes and beat up on the best team in the league. I’m back on the Bombers bandwagon.

The defence is getting it done since their Week 10 bye, allowing an average of 23 points in their last three games; two of those were against the Elks and Als. Willie Jefferson is still one of the best at what he does. Brady Oliveira leads the league in rushing yards with over 100 yards in four of his last five games. The lone exception is a partial rest night against the lowly Redblacks.

The Riders are still reeling from injuries. They may be scouting the stands for a few watermelon helmets to fill in on special teams.

THE PICK: BLUE BOMBERS +4.5

Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Chad Kelly is on pace to break the Argos single-season passing yards record, which would put him ahead of names like Doug Flutie and Ricky Ray. He’s tied for the most touchdown passes in the league with 24. The obvious outlier is his 17 interceptions in 11 starts. He’s thrown eight picks in his last four outings. Ouch. Remarkably, the Argos still managed two wins over that stretch, including a game in which Kelly had four turnovers to his name. If he can limit his mistakes to two or fewer, the Argos should be the better team.

THE PICK: ARGONAUTS -3.5

Edmonton Elks at Calgary Stampeders

The West-leading Elks got a week off to prepare for the Battle of Alberta. They have the league’s second-best record at 8-3. Their only losses are to the Alouettes, Roughriders, and Lions. But they’ve also beaten all three of those teams this season. The Elks are a legitimate contender to come out of the West. Even if Vernon Adams were healthy, this spread is too small for the current gap between the provincial capital and its largest city to the South.

THE PICK: ELKS -1.5