In hockey betting, few feelings are more demoralizing than watching your investment outplay the other team, but lose because of shoddy goaltending.

One connective tissue for this week’s raft of bets is exceptional play between the pipes.  

Los Angeles Kings at Arizona Coyotes

Saturday, Feb. 20 – 7 PM ET

One would assume that after playing the St. Louis Blues seven straight times, the Arizona Coyotes would find a contest against a new opponent galvanizing. Nope. The first 20 minutes in Thursday’s game were dominated by the Los Angeles Kings, who created five high-danger chances to the Coyotes’ zero.

The Coyotes did eke out a point even though their opponent doubled them in expected goals. With the Kings showing their strategic hand in the first affair, a duplicate effort seems unlikely since they are one of the NHL’s worst teams. 

The Kings’ defence has been a problem this season. Through 15 games, Los Angeles ranks fourth worst in expected goal against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and sixth worst in high-danger chances per hour. But that isn’t just a reflection of a dismal January; the Kings have awful metrics this month as well. At least this was true until they faced Arizona and came prepared.

The Kings stayed lower on the near side when the Coyotes forechecked, and dismantled their cycle by overloading on the puck. The Coyotes did force turnovers, but they struggled to get between the dots. Meanwhile, the top half of the offensive zone was mostly abandoned. On Saturday night, I expect a rebalancing of the offensive zone by yanking the third forward high as Arizona attempts to spread out a combustible Kings’ defence.

Arizona’s Conor Garland line tallied one goal on Thursday. The strike came off a rush chance where Garland was left alone in the high slot, but five Kings skaters were milling around below the circles. The line ferried the puck deep before kicking it back high. This sequence should be the template on Saturday.

The Garland line had been white hot against the Blues. It outshot St. Louis 49-31 and more than doubled them in high-danger chances. But the Kings’ defensive pair of Drew Doughty and Mikey Anderson proved nettlesome for the dynamic triumvirate. Considering the Coyotes have the last change, coach Rick Tocchet may want to consider moving his top line away from the Kings’ top defensive pairing and pitting it against their vulnerable second and third pairings.

The most shocking aspect of the first game in this mini-series was the Kings’ potency in transition. In the second and third periods, the Kings’ forecheck mostly stalled, but by utilizing the stretch pass and capitalizing on three Coyotes forwards caught deep, they were able to feed their off-the-puck, cutting forward.

Coyotes goaltender Darcy Kuemper continues to be one of the best in the league at his craft. Kuemper gives his team the opportunity to win even when they are playing poorly. And if the Coyotes can avoid the penalty box, they should be able to provide sufficient run support to edge out the Kings.

Pick: Coyotes -157

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins

Saturday, Feb. 20 – 7 PM ET

It was a Trotzian fever dream. Poor puck management. Failure to box out or stick-check. Capitulating the neutral zone so that the Penguins could sprint through it with speed. The game of details that the New York Islanders thrive on was inconsistent on Thursday night, and the Pittsburgh Penguins feasted on a bevy of New York miscues, with a 4-1 result in favour of the Black and Yellow.

But one uneven performance should not overshadow the fact that the Islanders have been playing better hockey of late. In the month of February, they have the sixth-best expected goals against per 60 minutes of any team at 5-on-5. Also, the Islanders’ offence has proved formidable, ranking seventh in high-danger chances per hour.

If you can undermine an opponent’s biggest weapon, it puts you in good stead and, in three games, we have seen New York’s Mathew Barzal line square off with the Pens’ Sidney Crosby line and come out favourably. The Islanders’ top forwards duo of Barzal and Anders Lee are generating more shots and have the advantage in expected goals in over 20 minutes of head-to-head time against Crosby and Jake Guentzel.

While New York’s forwards and defencemen have improved their play, a successful February has also been boosted by goaltender Semyon Varlamov, who ranks just outside the top five in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). The Islanders are besting their adversaries in quality chances, and they are generally at an advantage when it comes down to goaltending.

On a macro level, the Islanders need to clog the neutral zone and compel the Penguins to forecheck. A more focused Islanders squad will clamp down on the Penguins’ cycle and squeeze Pittsburgh to the perimeter.

Offensively, the Islanders should engage their defencemen more and try to use indirect passes in the neutral zone to create foot races between their forwards and the Penguins’ defencemen. The Islanders lost five in a row to end January, but since then, they have more closely resembled the team that made the conference finals last season. As underdogs, the Islanders are a savvy wager.

Pick: Islanders +100

Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes

Saturday, Feb. 20 – 7 PM ET

Since the Carolina Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the NHL at controlling the puck, and they have a very deep, fast roster, I rarely fade them. Unless, of course, they are facing a Tampa Bay Lightning team that has lost two of its last three, and the Hurricanes are playing the second game of a back-to-back with their starting goaltender hurt.

Hopefully past performances presage future ones on Saturday. Right now, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is second in the NHL in GSAx. If Vasilevskiy can see it, he stops it. And then there are Carolina’s options in net. Goaltenders Alex Nedeljkovic and James Reimer are both in the negatives in GSAx.

While the Hurricanes shut out the Lightning in their first meeting, Tampa Bay generated 16 high-danger chances at 5-on-5. The problem was they were stymied by Petr Mrazek. With Mrazek injured, the Lightning should fling everything on net.

The Lightning’s just concluded series with the Florida Panthers should provide meat on the bone for enemies of the Stanley Cup champs to pick at. Florida scored 11 goals in its two wins against Tampa Bay. What did the Panthers identify?

The Lightning defencemen are extremely aggressive on their pinches, and in the games the Panthers won, Florida produced clever indirect passes into space, which separated the Lightning defencemen from their forwards.

The Lightning want to forecheck and cycle while keeping their opponent chasing the puck or trying to break out. But Florida had players leaking out of the zone and getting behind Tampa Bay defencemen, a brilliant ploy to manufacture offence considering the Lightning are extremely difficult to score on when in their defensive posture. Still, having played 24 hours earlier, will the Hurricanes have enough juice to stretch the capabilities of the weaker Lightning defencemen?

The Bolts’ second loss to the Panthers must have been frustrating because it was partially a byproduct of poor goaltending by Curtis McElhinney. In that game, Steven Stamkos returned and scored, and the Lightning received two goals from their fourth line and posted four goals in all—and still lost. We are more likely to see the comet Hale-Bopp return than see that scenario result in a Lightning defeat again.

The Lightning have the skill, speed and depth to match the Hurricanes. They also have far superior goaltending. At this close to a pick’em, the Lightning are a steal.

Pick: Lightning -114