I was asked during spring training if the Toronto Blue Jays should consider putting Joe Biagini in the rotation over Francisco Liriano. And I went with Biagini after just a moment’s thought.

I know Liriano has a successful history of starting and I know much of that recent history involves pitching to Russell Martin. I also knew then what we all know now: Martin is declining and his health could be a continuing issue. He takes a lot of abuse behind the dish and Liriano’s style of pitching – slippery, in the dirt, with a lot of off-the-chest sliders – takes a toll.

In my humble opinion, Biagini was and is the better, more consistent option for a team that will rely on pitching to stay in the hunt.

Sure, there are some concerns. There were questions about Biagini’s ability to cover a starter’s load when all of his work at the MLB level had been done from the pen. But Biagini is young, and could be stretched out. In fact, the injuries and short starts by replacement pitchers like Mat Latos, Casey Lawrence, and incumbents like Liriano have supplied ample opportunities for the Toronto bullpen to pick up innings, with Biagini getting much of that action.

Then there was the concern that Biagini would struggle since he’s a nearly pure 50/50 pitcher – 50 per cent four-seam fastballs and 50 per cent off-speed stuff, composed of his slider, curve, and change. I think that’s a non-issue. To prove it, one only need look at Marco Estrada’s success as a pitcher who throws 50 per cent fastballs and 50 per cent off-speed pitches (mostly the changeup).

Then there is the concern of predictability. Allow me to explain:

A pitcher can throw heaps of off-speed or breaking pitches from the pen because, chances are, the lineup is only going to see him once. If the pitcher has to get through the order three or four times in a game, hitters get more looks at their stuff. More looks means more potential for damage off of said stuff.

Increased exposure to hitters leads to higher prediction rates. Biagini is a bit of a novelty as a starter right now. Hitters are still adjusting to his approach. In truth, Biagini is still adjusting to the role.

Most guys are in the pen because they have one or two great pitches they can spam a hitter with, in the same location, until the hitter goes down. Some bullpen arms throw so hard they simply need to throw strikes for an inning or two because hitters can’t adjust quickly enough to hurt them.

Being a starting pitcher at the highest level isn’t so much how hard you throw or how great one of your pitches is, it’s about your ability to mix and surprise. Pitchers making the transition from the bullpen often succeed with the mix part –they have enough good pitches to warrant starting – but they fail to surprise, relying on formulaic approaches of execution that could mimic IF-THEN statements in computer code:

{IF: count = 0.2 THEN: Slider; Down Away}

When hitters spot your tendencies, they begin to hunt a key pitch in a certain location. They know they’ll get a certain pitch from you, so they discard any that aren’t the one they want until they get that pitch.

You may hear commentators say that a pitcher is showing too much, too early, or being “exposed.” That’s their way of saying a pitcher is showing all their pitches too soon to hitters who will make adjustments.

This could happen to Biagini as his sample size grows, but this eschews the concept of contrast in a rotation.

For example, if Aaron Sanchez pitches the night after R.A. Dickey, Sanchez looks like he’s throwing a million miles an hour by comparison, and, theoretically, Sanchez should benefit from how Dickey’s knuckleball can screw up the timing of the hitters he just faced.

A more common example of rotation contrast would be how managers set up in the order of righty, lefty, righty, lefty – at least for those rotations that have the proper supply of arms.

The Blue Jays have two predictable styles of pitcher in the rotation that benefit Biagini, and vice versa. Marcus Stroman and Sanchez both specialize in the sinking fastball; in fact, last year Stroman and Sanchez threw more sinking fastballs and rolled more ground balls that any other pitchers in the AL East by a sizeable margin.

Biagini throws far fewer fastballs, and the ones he does throw are four-seamers that catch hitters above the hands. This approach contrasts nicely with the sinkers at the ankles Stroman and Sanchez are known for. Biagini’s consistency in the zone is a major plus. That fact that he can pound the strike zone puts the hitter on the defensive.

Conversely, the lack of strikes and dependency on Martin is what makes Liriano so volatile. Liriano is left-handed, which adds to his rotational fit, but without Martin to guide him, his stuff downgrades from nasty and slippery to wild and inconsistent.

Martin has helped Liriano find dominance with the Pirates and the Blue Jays, mostly by setting up Liriano to be Liriano: a pitcher who needs a batter in swing mode.

Liriano is most successful when he dumps his sinker/slider combo right on the middle of the plate and lets the hitter deal with it. He’s at his least successful when he tries to pick spots and rely on command. He’s a punishment pitcher who has great stuff, but isn’t certain where it’s going. An experienced catcher like Martin knows he must let Liriano pitch with his slider until he gets in a groove, then he can expand.

Most young catchers do the opposite. They establish the fastball and then mix in the off-speed stuff to put a hitter away. It’s the formula that shows the least versatile, most deceptive pitches, and maximizes the most controllable setup pitches. Too bad that’s not how Liriano works. When he’s on his game – usually with Martin behind the dish – he’s unpredictable and nearly unhittable. But when he’s off, Liriano is his own worst enemy.

When J.A. Happ gets healthy, I’d push Liriano back to the bullpen and bring him out in situations where he can spam his slider and rely on hitter aggression to play into his style.

I’d keep Biagini in the rotation, trusting in his ability to adapt as his sample size grows, and making the most out of the consistency and synergy he brings.