Bob Weeks Picks Six – Texas Children’s Houston Open

Last week: We had three winning cards last week at the Valspar, two of them from Corey Conners. We had him for a top-10 finish at +290 and then again as the top Canadian for +130. We also selected Lucas Glover for a top-20 finish at +200.

This week: The Texas Children’s Houston Open returns to Memorial Park, a municipal course that charges a green fee of just $30 during the week for locals. Despite welcoming the residents of Houston who play here the other 51 weeks of the year, when the Tour comes to town, the course has some significant bite. It ranked as the 12th hardest course on the PGA Tour last year with a scoring average just above 70. Past champs here include Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak and Carlos Ortiz. All of them had tremendous putting weeks, which seems to be a key to lower scoring on this layout.

To win

Rory McIlroy +700

McIlroy won for the second time this season at the Players with that not-so-dramatic playoff. It’s the first time he’s won twice on the PGA Tour before the Masters and he could easily win three times after this week. His putting has been very strong and he sits 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting, a marked improvement over last year when he finished the year in 59th spot. If the driver stays on target he should have a good chance to add a third pre-Masters win.

Aaron Rai +2800

From tee to green Rai is exceptional and when his putter is joining in, his finishes look great. He tied for 14th last week at the Players, which followed a tie for 11th at the Arnold Palmer and a tie for fourth in Mexico. He tied for seventh at this tournament each of the last two years. Looking to pass Tommy Gainey for the title of most wins by a player wearing two gloves.

Top 10

Scottie Scheffler -200

There’s not a ton of value on this bet but we figured we better put Scheffler on the board here somewhere. The big question mark remains his putter, which can be hot, cold or lukewarm. The hot part hasn’t been seen as much as it was last season around this time but with the rest of his game in good shape – especially tee to green where he is ranked second – it’s easy to see a big week looming.

Michael Kim +330

After five consecutive finishes inside the top 12, Kim finally cooled off with a missed cut at the Players and T28 at Valspar. Even with those recent finishes, he remains attractive due to an all-around solid game. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Around the Green he sits in 11th spot. Although he is middle of the pack in SG: Putting, he’s been on the positive side of that marker in six of his last seven starts.  

Top 20

Taylor Pendrith +190

Tee to green, Pendrith has enjoyed a typical solid season so far, but his putter has been stone cold. That’s strange for a guy who ended last season in fifth spot in Strokes Gained: Putting. At the Players, however, there was some reason for optimism as the Richmond Hill, Ont., golfer had his best putting tournament of the year. If that holds this week in Houston, he could be a factor.

Tony Finau +150

His last two visits to Houston have produced a win and a runner-up performance. That’s reason enough to give him the nod. He’s had a mixed season so far with a tie for fifth at the Genesis and then a missed cut at the Players. We’re hoping he’ll feel comfortable at Memorial Park and show some form.

Props

Top German

Stephan Jaeger +115

Won last year and was T9 the year prior.

Top Canadian

Mackenzie Hughes +350

Some good numbers for a guy who has played well here in the past.

First-round Leader

Rory McIlroy +2000

It’s attractive at that number