Bob Weeks Picks Six – Valero Texas Open

Last Week: We punched three winning tickets for our first stop in Texas. A top 10 from Scottie Scheffler (-200), a top 20 from Taylor Pendrith (+190) and the low German golfer by Stephan Jaeger (+115).

This Week: The last stop before head to Augusta, Ga., is the Valero Texas Open, a tournament where the course is groomed somewhat similar to what golfers will see a week from now. The field is decent with 16 of the top 50 in the world teeing it up, all hoping to earn the famous cowboy boots awarded to the winner. Last year, the field had to deal with strong winds that sent the scores rising and making it a challenge to stay under par. Wind or not, TPC San Antonio is never an easy course and whoever manages to get the win will have definitely earned it.

To Win:

Ludvig Aberg +1200

Hard to believe that a player so young and without a lot of experience is ranked fifth in the world, but that’s where Aberg finds himself. He missed the cut in his last start at the Players  but still has that win at the Genesis to cherish. Made one appearance at this tournament as a professional and tied for 14th.

Corey Conners +1600

Conners has two career wins on the PGA Tour and both of them came here. He comes in riding a wave of great play with three top-10s in his last three starts. A lot of the credit for his recent hot streak goes to his putting, which is starting to match up with the rest of his impeccable ball-striking.

Top 10

Akshay Bhatia +220

The defending champion arrives with three top-10 finishes in his last four starts. That includes a tie for third at the Players. His putting has been exceptionally strong this year and he sits ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting

Gary Woodland +410

Not many dry eyes last week after Woodland finished in a tie for second in Houston. That’s his best finish since he won the U.S. Open 2019. Of course he’s battling back after brain surgery, which makes the performance more than a little remarkable. Two top 10s in his last two starts here.

Top 20

Sam Stevens +180

Stevens tied for 18th last week after closing with a Sunday 65. He finished second here two years ago and was tied for 14th last year. He drives the ball well, which should help him around TPC San Antonio.

Keith Mitchell +160

Had a top-20 finish last week in Houston and has top-20 finishes in his last two starts at this tournament including a tie for 14th a year ago. Always good off the tee, he sits fifth in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.

Props

Top Englishman

Tommy Fleetwood +140

Might be the place for his first PGA Tour victory

Top South American

Alejandro Tosti +175

Playing with a chip on his shoulder after slow play remarks

Finishing Positions

Any 2 of Fleetwood, Conners, Matsuyama finish in top 10  +185