Olney: Down to Blue Jays ownership to make Guerrero Jr. deal happen

The Toronto Blue Jays get their 2025 season underway on March 27, and despite the intentions of everyone involved, one storyline is likely to hang over the entire season like a dark cloud.

Superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is set to become a free agent at the end of the year, and told reporters in February that he would not continue to negotiate a contract extension beyond the opening of Spring Training camp so as to avoid causing a distraction.

His deadline passed, the team and player did not come to an agreement, and now the story has reared its head on multiple occasions - including on Monday, when MLB reporter Hector Gomez wrote on X that the Blue Jays are planning to increase their offer to between $550 million - $600 million in total value.

ESPN's Buster Olney joined First Up on TSN1050 on Tuesday to discuss the Guerrero situation, talk about the potential deciding factor in a potential deal and how injuries have started to influence Toronto's roster before the season begins.

"I checked on these rumours yesterday and what I got back was there's been no official contact between the two sides," Olney said of Gomez's report. 

"There are people out there who are saying the Blue Jays are going to reconnect with Vladdy. I think there's only one way that happens. That would be that the ownership of the Blue Jays basically talks down to the Blue Jays' front office and tells them to get it done."

After the two sides initially failed to come to an agreement, reports surfaced not long after of the potential gap in negotiations.

Olney thinks that Blue Jays team president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins have essentially set their price and that the management team will not waver from their stance.

"The front office has a lot of experience dealing with these things. When they told everybody that they gave their best offer, back in mid-February, I think that's the stance of the front office," Olney said. "There have been situations in baseball and other sports too where the owner can step in and say 'You know what guys? Get it done.'"

Earlier in March, it was rumoured that the two sides were $50 million apart in total contract value. That number left Olney stunned.

"When you really think about it, the fact that they would be split over $3.5 million a year over the length of the contract is kind of nuts," Olney said. "You can understand the front office questioning the value and whether or not it's worth it - but if you're an owner, big picture, 30,000 feet, are you kidding me?"

"They absolutely should step in, but I don't have any indication that that's happened," said Olney.

Guerrero has been the most successful homegrown hitter in the tenure of Shapiro and Atkins. Since taking their respective positions in the franchise after the 2015 season, only three batters drafted or signed as international free agents have gone on to become All-Stars - Guerrero (four times), shortstop Bo Bichette (twice) and catcher Alejandro Kirk (once).

Olney thinks that there is a matter of franchise identity at stake, given that the team has not retained a homegrown superstar in a generation.

"When you really think about the difference of $50 million, what is the value of having Vladdy just go out the door for draft pick compensation," Olney said.

"The perception of the franchise as you move forward, there are a thousand different reasons where if you're the Blue Jays you can say it would be worthwhile to get this deal done and in some ways." 

A similar situation has unfolded with a few different franchises over the past decade or so. The Los Angeles Angels were unable to come to an agreement on an extension for multi-time MVP Shohei Ohtani before he became a free agent after the 2023 season, and the team let him walk for nothing.

On the other hand, the New York Yankees could not come to an agreement with outfielder and MVP Aaron Judge before he tested free agency - but he came back to New York on a $360 million deal.

The Boston Red Sox could not come to an agreement on a deal for MVP outfielder Mookie Betts before trading him to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pennies on the dollar as his contract ended following the 2018 season. 

"Remember when the Red Sox traded Betts? When they finished a deal with Rafael Devers a few years ago for $312 million, part of the reason why they went that high was the Mookie Betts tax. Because they didn't sign Mookie, they had to do some other things, a matter of good faith with their fan base," Olney said.

"I think that's kind of where the Blue Jays are. If they need to justify paying extra they can say 'We screwed up this negotiation, this situation for years, and this is just the extra cost of that mistake. Let's just dive in and do it.' Because the perception of the franchise will be so different if they sign him."

Is Scherzer's thumb problem going to be a serious concern?

Olney also reported that, while veteran pitcher Max Scherzer has overcome some serious afflictions in his career, the righty may not be ready to start the season.

"At this stage, my guess will be no (he will not be ready for the start of the season)," Olney said. 

“My thumb hurts. It hurts to grip the ball," Scherzer said on Monday. "The critical thing I’ve learned over the years here is that your thumb is absolutely critical to your arm health. Unfortunately, this is what I’ve been dealing with since 2023."

"I remember in the 2019 World Series, Scherzer couldn't make a start in that series and what you heard was he could barely move, then he winds up starting the last game," Olney said on First Up. "So he's someone who is a medical miracle at times with how quickly he is able to recover, but let's face it: when you're getting Scherzer, you're hoping for the Hall of Fame calibre pitcher, because when he pitches he's pretty good, but you're also understanding he's someone who's dealt with a ton of injuries the last four or five years."

Scherzer, 40, pitched in just nine games with the Texas Rangers a season ago. The eight-time All-Star and three-time Cy Young award winner has made more than 23 starts in a season just twice in the last five seasons.

"We're still in March, and now's not the time to go to the whip with these sort of injuries," Olney said. "My guess is he will be slowed at the beginning of the season as he tries to figure out how to  deal with this."