By The Numbers: MLB CY Young Race

The baseball world is about to be completely overrun with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado free agency talk – if it isn’t already – but, for today at least, the Cy Young race takes centre stage. With both the American and National League Cy Young set to be unveiled Wednesday at 6 p.m. ET as voted on by the Baseball Writers Association of America, TSN.ca takes a look at the case for each candidate.

American League

Blake Snell – Tampa Bay Rays

After an impressive rookie season in 2016, Blake Snell took a bit of a step back two seasons ago with an earned-run average north of 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.33. But things were a lot different last season, and it might just be enough to give the Rays their first Cy Young winner since David Price in 2012.

From a numbers standpoint, Snell was the best pitcher in the American League and it wasn’t all that close. He led the AL in both wins (21) and ERA (1.89) while striking out a whopping 221 hitters in 180.2 innings. If it were a discussion of pure numbers, Snell would likely win by a landslide. He was baseball’s first 20-game winner since 2016 and he did it pitching in the highly-competitive AL East.

But his innings total could hold him back. It’s the lowest mark ever for a 20-game winner ever and the number is dwarfed by fellow nominees Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber. But he has a good excuse. Snell had two stints on the disabled list and the Rays as an organization generally avoid keeping starters in late in the game, preferring to give hitters a different look. So he might not have the quantity, but he definitely has the quality.

Which is more important to voters will be clear later today.

Justin Verlander – Houston Astros

It’s almost routine – another year, another Cy Young conversation involving Justin Verlander.

Verlander is as sure to be a Hall of Famer as any active player and his consistency for well over a decade is a big reason why.

As crazy as it sounds, Verlander might have had his best season ever in 2018.  His 2.52 ERA is the second best mark of his career and lowest since 2011. He struck out a league-high 290 hitters in 214.0 innings, giving him the highest strikeouts per nine innings number of his career (12.2).

He led the AL with 34 starts and gave up just 156 hits, which was by far the fewest of his career in a full season as a starter.

He was also the clear No. 1 on a Houston Astros team that ran away with the AL West, which could hold water as Snell’s Rays were left out of the playoff picture.

Corey Kluber – Cleveland Indians

Corey Kluber won the Cy Young last year and has a legitimate shot to do it again.

He might not have had a career-year like Snell or Verlander – his campaign from 2017 is nearly impossible to top – but he did join Snell as baseball’s only 20-game winner. It’s the first time in his career he’s reached the now-exclusive plateau.

Pitching through a knee injury for much of the season, Kluber led the AL in innings (215.0) and had the league’s lowest walk rate per nine innings at 1.4.

Like Verlander, consistency has been a theme. The 32-year-old became the first pitcher in Indians’ history to record at least 200 innings and 200 strikeouts in five straight years.

His ERA isn’t as impressive as Snell’s and his punch out totals don’t come close to Verlander’s, but it’s enough to get him in the conversation. Whether he wins the award or not, there will be significant interest in the right-hander if the Indians do decide to deal him as has been speculated throughout the off-season.

National League

Jacob deGrom

As good as Blake Snell and the rest of the Cy Young candidates were in 2018, Jacob deGrom was probably baseball’s best pitcher.

The only thing that got a bigger cut than deGrom’s hair this season was his ERA. In 217.0 innings, deGrom’s ERA was 1.70. That’s the sixth lowest among qualifying starting pitchers since the league lowered the mound in 1969.

If the Mets didn’t have laughably low run-support numbers in his starts, he would likely be in the 20-win club with Snell and Kluber. Instead, he won just 10 games, a number CY Young winners usually exceed by a landslide.

But wins aren’t valued the way they used to be, so it’s tough to quantify how much that might factor in.

The only other thing working against deGrom is the fact that all his success came for a New York Mets team that was never really in playoff contention, but a player’s statistical greatness weighed against a team’s success is more of a factor in an MVP debate than a CY Young race.

Aaron Nola

Twenty-five-year-old Aaron Nola has taken major steps forward since coming into the league four seasons ago. If he gets any better going forward, baseball is going to have a real problem on its hands. They probably already do.

Nola went 17-6 while emerging as the clear ace for an up-and-coming Philadelphia Phillies team.

He ranked second to deGrom in ERA (2.37) and held opponents to a .197 batting average. According to Baseball Reference, Nola’s 10.5 pitching WAR was the 18th best in baseball’s past 100 seasons.

Naturally, he earned his first-career All-Star nod and walked just 2.5 batters per nine innings.

While they faded considerably down the stretch of the season, the Phillies took a step forward to finish at 80-82. It might not sound like much, but it was their best win total since they went 81-81 in 2012. If Nola continues to take strides forward in the years to come, so could the Phillies.

Max Scherzer

It was quite the year for starters in the NL East – all three nominees come from the same division.

Max Scherzer has already won three Cy Young awards, tying him with Clayton Kershaw for the most among active pitchers.

He posted an ERA under 3.00 (2.53) in at least 200 innings (220.2) for the fourth straight season. He led the NL in a number of categories, including strikeouts per nine, WHIP and total strikeouts. He fanned exactly 300 batters for the first time in his career, becoming the fifth pitcher since 2001 to reach that mark. Strikeouts across baseball are trending upward, but that’s a lot, even for Scherzer.

A CY Young winner in back-to-back years, Scherzer might have his work cut out for him with deGrom’s dominance, but once again, he gave opposing hitters fits.

Massive free-agent deals worth hundreds of millions haven’t panned out in the last few years, but Scherzer’s has to be an exception. He still has three years left on the deal at well over $30 million a season. But with what he’s given the Nats in the first four, it’s hard to look at his deal as anything other than a bargain.