By the numbers: Struggling offence holding Jays back

Toronto Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman called on his team to have more urgency as they continued to sit outside the playoff picture after Wednesday’s loss.

A loss that was all too familiar.

Gausman kept things tidy over six innings, allowing two earned runs with eight strikeouts. But the Blue Jays couldn’t score, managing just five hits in a 7-0 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, who started Dean Kremer on short notice in place of an injured Jack Flaherty.

"We’re just waiting for that big stretch. We’ve kind of been waiting for it all year. Is it going to happen? I don’t know," Gausman said after the loss. "I hope it does. I hope it starts tomorrow, but we can’t keep [waiting]. We’ve got to go now, and we need a little bit more sense of urgency."

Facing the division-leading Orioles for the final time during the regular season Thursday, Kyle Gibson held the Jays’ offence at bay again as he went eight strong innings in a 5-3 win.

Toronto now trails both the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros by one and a half games for the remaining two American League wild-card spots.  

Thursday was the third time Gibson – who took a 4.97 ERA into the outing – has dominated the Blue Jays this season. The 35-year-old righty turned in seven innings of one-run ball in a 6-2 victory back in May and held the Jays in check over six innings with one earned run conceded in a 4-2 Orioles win on July 31.

The Jays have struggled to hit most of the season, which wasn’t something many predicted.

Heading into 2023, many felt Toronto’s rotation was the biggest question mark – namely the backend of the starting five with Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios posting ERAs well into the 5.00s in 2022. But even after Opening Day starter Alek Manoah’s surprising drop-off, Toronto’s rotation has been one of the best in baseball.

Maybe even the best.

The Blue Jays rank third in rotation ERA (3.79), second in strikeouts (728) and currently have five starters with an ERA under 4.00 on the season. As a team, the Blue Jays lead MLB with a 3.68 ERA.

While the Blue Jays have been elite at preventing runs from scoring all season, they have not been able to plate many themselves.

The Jays rank below league average in a number of important offensive categories, including runs scored (569), runs per game (4.45), RBI (541) and home runs (148). In their conventional starting nine, only two players – Bo Bichette and Brandon Belt – have an on-base plus slugging above .800.

The Blue Jays have left the second most players stranded on base (927) and have been a disaster with runners in scoring position. They rank 25th in OPS with RISP (.704) and 21st in average (.248), which goes a long way in explaining their struggling offence.

Another factor has been the play of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

After an MVP-calibre 2021 and a 32-homer campaign last year, Toronto’s All-Star first baseman is slashing .268/.344/.433 with 18 homers and 73 RBI in 124 games.

While both his HR and RBI totals are tops on the team, his .777 OPS leaves much to be desired. According to Fangraphs, Guerrero has been worth 0.5 wins above replacement this season. To put that in perspective, Davis Schneider’s fWAR sits at 0.6 despite playing just nine MLB games.

If the Blue Jays are going to make the postseason in 2023, they will have to make up some serious ground in the next two weeks.

Luckily for them, the schedule looks favourable.

The Blue Jays’ next five opponents until Sept. 10 have records under .500.  Toronto begins a series at home Friday with the Cleveland Guardians (60-68) and then play the Washington Nationals (59-69), Colorado Rockies (48-79), Oakland Athletics (37-91) and Kansas City Royals (41-88), the latter three making up the three worst records in MLB.

"You want to be in this spot with a month left with an opportunity to punch a ticket and control your own destiny," Gausman said Wednesday. "We haven’t necessarily played great baseball all year, but we’re in a situation now where we’re right there and we’ve just got to keep going.”

With just over a month left in the 2023 season, there’s still time. But Toronto needs to get going. Manager John Schneider said as much after Thursday’s loss.

“There’s no time to wait at all. We got to do it right f---ing now.”