Canadian MLB players to watch in 2023

In the World Baseball Classic earlier this month, Canada nearly advanced past the group stage for the first time in the tournament’s history.

The team opened with a wild win over Great Britain and then shut out Colombia two games later, heading into the round-robin finale needing a win against Mexico to move on.

That didn’t happen as Tampa Bay Rays star Randy Arozarena drove in five runs en route to a 10-3 thumping, bouncing Canada from the tournament.

Still, manager Ernie Whitt took pride in the job his team did.

"I think we have some really good young players that are coming. I think inexperience showed a little bit today," he said.

"But I'm proud of every guy in that room. They played the game the way it was supposed to be played. They played with pride and passion. What more can you ask for?"

Canada had some of its biggest stars sit out like many other countries in the WBC. But there is talent in the pipeline, especially the big league level.

With the start of a new baseball season two days away, TSN.ca looks at some of Canada’s biggest stars to see where they’re at heading into 2023.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Hometown: Montreal

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was decent in 2022. He led the Blue Jays in home runs with 32, RBI with 97 and in OPS at .818 while winning the Gold Glove Award as the American League’s best defensive first baseman.

So how is that only decent?

According to FanGraphs, Guerrero’s fWAR – how many wins a player adds to a team in place of a freely available minor league player – of 2.8 ranked 119th in MLB and fifth on the Blue Jays in 2022. Mark Canha (2.8), Jonah Heim (2.8) and Ke’Bryan Hayes (3.0) all had fWARs equal to or greater than Guerrero while teammate Danny Jansen’s total (2.6) was just a touch below Guerrero’s despite playing in only 72 games.

Of course, there are caveats to these comparisons. None of those players had anywhere close to the level of offensive production as Guerrero and also received boosts in their overall value for playing positions where offence is harder to come by than first base. But Guerrero is a superstar, and superstars are expected to pull a bit more weight than Vladdy did in 2022.

Chasing pitches outside of the strike zone explains a lot of his offensive drop-off from 2021. Two years ago, Guerrero was in the 69th percentile in chase rate, meaning he was better than about two thirds of big league hitters when it came to laying off bad pitches. Couple that with a high walk rate, low strikeout numbers and an ability to hit the ball as hard as he did and you’ve got a near MVP, an award he would have won if not for Shohei Ohtani having one of the most impressive seasons in baseball history.

In 2022, however, Guerrero was in the 39th percentile in chasing pitches and his walk rate plummeted from 12.3 per cent to 8.2 per cent. This resulted in a 62-point drop in on-base percentage and made pitchers more confident they could get him out with balls instead of strikes.

He was still hitting the ball as hard as ever last season and showed an ability to hit to all fields, so if he can be a little more selective this season, Guerrero’s numbers should return to where we all expected them to be after 2021.

Joey Votto

Hometown: Toronto

Cincinnati Reds

It happened in 2022 – Joey Votto finally had a bad season.

After a resurgent 2021 that saw him hit 36 homers and drive in 99, Votto struggled in his age-38 campaign to the tune of a .205/.319/.370 slash line – all career lows – in 98 games before he had surgery on a torn rotator cuff and biceps on Aug. 19, ending his year early.

Now 39, Votto said he’s as motivated as ever going into 2023.

“There’s no non-dramatic way to say it, but I have to perform well or I’m not going to be in a good place in terms of my career,” he told MLB.com.

Votto’s rehab stretched into spring training and how much he’ll be able to play once the season starts is up in the air. And potentially his future in Cincinnati, too?

Votto is entering the final season of his 10-year, $225 million contract he signed with the Reds in 2012. General manager Nick Krall told The Athletic last week that while he hopes Votto will end his career as a Red, if he asked to be dealt to his hometown Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline, Cincinnati would consider it. Of course, the Reds would need to be well back in the standings, Votto would need to be healthy enough to be traded and the two teams would need to work out a deal, and that’s only if Votto approached management about a move. We’re a long, long way from any of that.

But, on the other hand, seeing Votto wind down his career north of the border is a fun thought.  

Michael Soroka

Hometown: Calgary

Mike Soroka Atlanta Braves

Michael Soroka has not thrown a pitch in a MLB game since Aug. 3, 2020.

That was the first time he tore his Achilles. The following summer, he tore it again, ending his chance of returning at all in 2021 and delaying his 2022 season, which was eventually ended because of elbow soreness.

With two and a half years of rehab behind him, Soroka came to spring training last month only to find out he had a hamstring strain, delaying his much-anticipated return to the mound.

“He’s been through a lot,” Braves manager Brian Snitker told MLB.com. “I was hoping he’d come to camp and just be a normal guy. Eventually, he’s going to get to that. He’ll be there sooner than later and be able to go.”

Now 25, Soroka was an All-Star as a rookie in 2019, going 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts while finishing sixth in National League Cy Young voting. When Soroka might be stretched out enough to re-join the Braves’ rotation is unclear, but after all this time, getting back on the field is a huge step in the right direction.

The Braves optioned him to triple-A Gwinnett after his spring debut last week where he will continue building toward a big league return.

Cal Quantrill

Hometown: Port Hope, Ont.

Cal Quantrill Cleveland Guardians

Cal Quantrill began the 2021 season in a bullpen role and earned a spot in the starting rotation, finishing the year with a 2.89 ERA in 40 appearances, 22 of them starts.

He picked up right where he left off in 2022 and helped anchor one of the most consistent starting units in the American League last season alongside Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie. Only seven AL pitchers threw more innings than Quantrill’s 186.1. Of those seven, five had a lower ERA and just two had more wins.

The 28-year-old isn’t your typical modern starter. He relies on a sinker that clocks in at around 93.5 mph and a cutter that sits between 88 and 89 mph. Considering his 6-foot-3, 200-pound frame, that’s a touch slower than you might expect. But Quantrill has always been about inducing weak contact as opposed to overpowering opposing hitters.

He ranks in the bottom 10 per cent in strikeout percentage and the bottom five per cent in whiff rate. And yet, Quantrill is able to keep hard contact at a minimum and doesn’t give up a ton of home runs or walks. Especially at home.

Quantrill finished the 2022 regular season unbeaten at Progressive Field and improved to 14-0 there in his career when the Cleveland Guardians defeated the Kansas City Royals on Oct. 4. That matched the most wins without a loss by any pitcher at any ballpark since Vic Raschi went 14-0 at Comiskey Park in Chicago from 1947 to 1955.

The New York Yankees got to Quantrill two weeks later in the postseason, ending his unbeaten streak in Game 4 of the American League Division Series. Quantrill made two starts in that series, allowing three earned runs in five innings in each outing.

Jordan Romano

Hometown: Markham, Ont.

Jordan Romano Toronto Blue Jays

Jordan Romano checks all the boxes of an elite big league closer.

He routinely runs it up to triple-digits on the radar gun. He piles up strikeouts. He’s nearly impossible to square up. He’s tall. And he’s got some flare, be it his now-abandoned pre-pitch squat routine or his brand new septum piercing. But most importantly, he consistently shuts down games for his hometown Toronto Blue Jays.

Romano took over as closer in 2021 and became one of the best relievers in MLB last season, finishing tied for fourth with 36 saves.

Relying almost exclusively on a four-seam/slider combo, the 29-year-old ranked in the 92nd percentile in fastball velocity and yielded a miniscule .163 batting average on his heater.

Romano was recognized for his contribution in 2022, making the AL All-Star Team for the first time in his career and also taking home the Tip O’Neill Award as the top Canadian in MLB in 2022.

“This is really special to win this award,” he said in a statement. “I’ve followed the award over the years and I have a lot of respect for the previous winners. It will be great to have my name on the trophy alongside their names.”

Romano beat out Guerrero and Quantrill for the award.

Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor

Hometown: Mississauga, Ont.

Josh Naylor Bo Naylor Cleveland Guardians

Brothers Josh and Bo Naylor grew up together in Mississauga. They each went to the same high school, represented Team Canada in multiple international tournaments and were drafted in the first round of the MLB Draft.

And on Oct. 1 of last year, they played in a big league game together for the first time.

Older by two years, Josh Naylor began his career with the San Diego Padres and was traded to the Guardians in a package for right-hander Mike Clevinger at the 2020 trade deadline.

His first full season with Cleveland in 2021 abruptly ended after he suffered a serious leg injury in a collision with a teammate while chasing after a shallow fly ball. This sidelined him into the following April, but Naylor proved to be a key piece for the Guardians in 2022 once he got healthy, tallying 20 homers and 79 RBI and showing the potential that saw him go No. 12 overall in 2015.

After a strong season in the minors, Bo made his big league debut at the beginning of October and got into five games down the stretch of the season. The younger Naylor will start the season in the minors but will certainly factor heavily into the Guardians’ plans going forward, ranked fourth on their top prospects list according to MLB.com.

“This is so surreal,” the Naylors’ mom Jenice said to MLB.com of her sons playing in a big league game together. “Like honestly, it’s so hard to describe. It brings tears to my eyes. It’s just amazing.”

Believe it or not, there’s a third Naylor brother. Seventeen-year-old Myles is a 6-foot-2 infielder who has committed to Texas Tech, the same program Josh committed to out of high school.

James Paxton

Hometown: Ladner, B.C.

James Paxton Boston Red Sox

James Paxton has always been solid when healthy. But that hasn’t been often, especially lately.

‘Big Maple’ strung together four reasonably durable seasons from 2016 to 2019, pitching to a 3.60 ERA while going 44-24 in 101 starts.

But Paxton’s injuries returned in 2020 and persisted each of the following two seasons, limiting Paxton to just six total starts over that span.

Paxton had Tommy John surgery two Aprils ago and hits the comeback trail in 2023 with the Boston Red Sox, who signed him to a modified two-year contract last year. Making just $4 million this season, Paxton could end up being a massive bargain for a Red Sox team in need of some starting pitching.

Early in spring training, manager Alex Cora told reporters that Paxton was back to being a ballplayer again instead of being sidelined and Paxton said he couldn’t be happier with the designation.

“It feels great to hear, because that’s what I want to be,” he told NBC. “I just want to be a ballplayer again and be back out there competing with my teammates and trying to win ballgames.”

If only that lasted.

Soon after, Paxton left his first competitive game in nearly two years with a hamstring strain. According to Chad Jennings of The Athletic, Paxton faced live hitters in batting practice over the weekend and the plan is for him to pitch two innings in a backfield game on Wednesday. When he’ll be activated is anyone’s guess, but Jennings notes the Red Sox will build him up one inning at a time.

Tyler O’Neill

Hometown: Maple Ridge, B.C.

Tyler O’Neill St. Louis Cardinals

Those who followed Tyler O’Neill early in his career knew he had the tools to be a star at the MLB level. He had power, he had speed and he had good defensive instincts in the outfield.

But for years, O’Neill struggled to put it all together. Until 2021 that is, when he broke out with 34 home runs and a .912 OPS while nearly cracking the top 10 in National League MVP voting.

Entering his age 27 season, the St. Louis Cardinals had high hopes for O’Neill going into 2022. Except progress is rarely linear at the big league level.

O’Neill battled all kinds of injuries last season, spending time on the shelf with a wonky shoulder and two separate hamstring injuries. All in all, O’Neill slashed .228/.308/.392 in 96 games while striking out in nearly a third of his at-bats.

According to MLB.com, O’Neill remained in St. Louis for much of the off-season to better prepare his body for 2023. Manager Oliver Marmol seemed delighted with the decision and appears optimistic O’Neill could return to his form from two seasons ago.

“I am highly, highly impressed with how he came in physically and with his swing, but more impressed with the mentality. I think we’re going to see a different player than last year,” Marmol said.

Nick Pivetta

Hometown: Victoria, B.C.

Nick Pivetta Boston Red Sox

Nick Pivetta struggled in his first three-plus seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, but a change of scenery seems to have done him some good.

In 92 outings with the Phils from 2017 to 2020, Pivetta was a largely unimpressive 19-30 with a 5.50 ERA. Needing bullpen help down the stretch of the 2020 season, Philadelphia shipped him to Boston in exchange for two relievers. And it proved to be a smart piece of business for the Red Sox.

In two seasons and change, Pivetta shaved more than a run off his ERA with Boston (4.47) and has stopped giving up the home run ball, an impressive feat considering things can often go the other way with pitchers moving to Fenway Park.

Pivetta has always had elite strikeout stuff despite average fastball velocity. His 6-foot-5 frame helps him get extension toward home plate and his spin rates on both his fastball (68th percentile) and curveball (80th percentile) certainly help.

One area Pivetta needs to improve on is limiting hard contact. The 30-year-old ranked near the bottom in average exit velocity and hard hit percentage last season. Nearly 46 per cent of balls put in play against Pivetta had exit velocities of 95mph or higher, well up from the MLB average of 38.6. He also walked too many hitters, grading in the bottom quarter of the league in free passes.

Nobody has made more starts for the Red Sox the past two years and some minor improvements should help him build on a promising few seasons.