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TSN Raptors Reporter

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TORONTO -- As it turned out, Dwane Casey was right to be worried.

Fresh off a big comeback win over Atlanta, one of the Eastern Conference's toughest teams, Toronto's head coach was feeling uneasy ahead of Thursday's contest against the Denver Nuggets, losers of eight in a row.

He had seen his team play up or down to their competition before, most recently over the weekend when they stole a last-second victory in Washington — against the club that had embarrassed them in the playoffs — only to overlook the undermanned Phoenix Suns a night later. Now, with the undefeated Golden State Warriors on deck, this had all the makings of a trap game.

Written on the whiteboard in the Raptors' locker room, in all caps and punctuated with three exclamation marks, were the words "VERY CAPABLE!!!" followed by Denver's margin of defeat in each of their last five games.

Casey’s message was one that he's reiterated time and time again: don't take the Nuggets, or anybody else, lightly.

"I'm worried about the Denver Nuggets," Casey said an hour before tip-off. "I'm not even thinking about Golden State. We're not in a position to think about anybody else, we've got to think about next game."

"We just don't want to go win a game in Atlanta and get all happy on the farm and then here comes Denver, who is a very capable young team, who had Chicago on the ropes [Wednesday] night, comes in here and spanks you. So that's my message and for us as a program, we have to start thinking that way and not get overly excited because we win a game."

Casey's concern was justified. Three hours later the Raptors returned to their dressing room. They had lost, 106-105, and the culprit was a familiar one: yet another slow start.

For the fourth straight contest and ninth time in 20 games to begin this season, Toronto had failed to reach 20 points in the opening quarter. Some context: they've scored 19 or fewer nine times in the other three quarters combined.

No NBA team is scoring less (21.9) or shooting worse (36 per cent) in the opening frame and, on Thursday, their defence was just as bad. Down 29-19 after 12 minutes, the Raptors had already trailed by as many as 16 points — a deficit that would stretch to 18 before halftime. They had dug themselves out of a 17-point hole in Atlanta, but lightning did not strike two nights in a row. Despite another second-half push, they ran out of gas and ultimately came up short.

After the game Casey was in no mood for I-told-you-sos. Irked at the very mention of their next opponent, the Warriors, he insisted that looking ahead was a big part of the problem.

"Well again, that's what bothers me," he said. "Everybody's talking about Golden State when we had this team tonight. This team tonight, back's against the wall, you've got a wounded animal coming into your house and we didn't respond. Same with Phoenix the other night, they were wounded, they come in and out-worked us in our house and that's embarrassing for that to happen."

Overall, a record of 12-8 is nothing to be ashamed of, especially when you factor in Toronto's road-heavy early-season schedule, injuries to Jonas Valanciunas, DeMarre Carroll and Terrence Ross, as well as the new faces and new system they're working in. However, they've been plagued by a couple of concerning trends that continue to resurface.

Firstly, there's the consistency, or lack thereof. The Raptors are now 7-3 against winning clubs, having defeated half of the league's top-12 teams, but they're just 5-5 when facing sub-.500 competition.

Then there are the slow starts - a phenomenon that's seemingly impossible to explain. After all, their first unit - Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Carroll, Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo (Valanciunas' replacement) - is the same group that starts the third quarter, where they're the second-highest scoring team in the league.
Casey can't put his finger on what's causing the problem, neither can the players involved but, as they search for a solution, the head coach won't role out making a change to his rotation.

"We've got to get a level of play that we decide we're going to play at from the start of the game until the end of the game," Casey said. "We can't wait until we get our teeth kicked in before we start to play. That's been our M.O. Whether we change the starting unit or change whatever the rotation is just to get that jumpstart, we've got to do it because it's just too many games in a row now that we get out and dig ourselves a hole and then have to dig ourselves out of it. No matter who it is, it's just too hard in this league to do that."

The difficulty is there's no obvious switch to be made. Lowry, DeRozan and Carroll - the team's best players - are in no danger of losing their jobs, although all three have been part of the problem, each shooting below 40 per cent from the field in the quarter. That leaves the front-court tandem of Scola and Biyombo.

Scola, who won the starting gig over Patrick Patterson in training camp, actually leads Toronto in first-quarter shooting (47 per cent) and rebounding (2.4). As for Biyombo, his addition to the first group certainly hasn't helped offensively, but they weren't a whole lot better before his promotion, despite the fact that Valanciunas was their most effective player early in games.

If Casey does opt for change ahead of Saturday's game against the Warriors, the versatility of Carroll (who could shift over to the four) and DeRozan (who could shift over to the three) gives him some options.

Patterson, Cory Joseph, the slumping Terrence Ross and the sparingly used James Johnson all have experience starting games and could each be slotted in around Lowry, DeRozan and Carroll, depending on how small Casey is willing to play.

Even Lucas Nogueira, who has logged 32 minutes over the last two games, would seem to make some sense as a more offensively capable alternative to Biyombo at the centre position.

One thing they'd have to be mindful with any lineup change is maintaining balance between the two units. Currently, the Raptors rank 28th in bench scoring so starting either Joseph or Patterson - the team's most reliable reserves - may not be a viable solution.

"Teams are coming out aggressive and we're not matching their intensity," said Lowry, who doesn't believe a lineup change is necessary this early in the season. "We've got to figure out a way how to match other teams' intensity or come out with more intensity ourselves."

There's also the distinct possibility that Casey is bluffing, using the threat of change to light a fire under his starters. For the bulk of their careers, Lowry and DeRozan have been second-half players. More often than not and for whatever reason, they seem to come out of the halftime break with a sense of urgency they lack to begin the game. Combined, they're averaging 22.5 points on 46 per cent shooting in the second half this season after scoring 19.8 on just 38 per cent in the first half. Simply put, the Raptors need to get more from their best and most utilized players right out of the gate.

"We've got to come out with a sense of urgency and not wait until we get down to exert extra energy to get back into the game," DeRozan said. "I think we just have to have a conscious effort of that every single night, no matter who we're playing. Whether it's an early game, later game, if we're playing an okay team or if we're playing a great team, we've got to understand we've got to put our stamp on the game early and control it the way we need to control it instead of fighting back."

"If you are serious about being a playoff team you've got to make sure that you are consistent in your performance, in your approach, in your energy, in your focus, whatever it is," Casey said, challenging his team after Thursday's loss. "My word is going to be consistent. We've got to play for 48, or as close to 48 as we can, and we have not done that."