Tigers' Skubal latest award favourite to face innings limit in MLB

Detroit Tigers ace lefty Tarik Skubal may have delivered his signature start under the spotlight against the New York Yankees at the Little League Classic on Sunday.

The 27 year old allowed three hits and one run in six innings against Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and the rest of the Bronx Bombers in a game the Tigers won 3-2.

“He’s the best pitcher in the game right now ... It’s not fun facing a guy like that, but it’s fun competing against the best,” said Judge, the AL MVP favourite, after the loss against Skubal.

However, in continuing a trend seen around the majors this year, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said after the game that it may be Skubal's final start on regular rest this season.

"It’s important for us to be very aware, which we are, and it’s also important for us to watch what he’s doing," said Hinch. 

"We’re controlling the things we can control. He continues to go out and dominate, continues to put in good effort between starts. We’re giving him extra rest ... But he’s done the work."

The start pushed Skubal to a new career high in innings pitched in a season (155.1) and he has an American League-leading 2.49 earned runs average with 185 strikeouts and a 14-4 record.

Per FanDuel, Skubal is now a heavy favourite to take home his first Cy Young award.

Skubal is also strongly in contention to take home the first pitching triple crown - leading the league in wins, strikeouts and ERA - since Shane Bieber in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.

The innings limit, or extended rest, could cause some difficulty in both the wins and strikeouts categories though. He is tied with Kansas City's Seth Lugo at 14 wins, and leads Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox by 12 strikeouts.

Crochet, meanwhile, is already playing with a heavy innings limit for Chicago since the beginning of July. 

The 25-year-old pitched out of the bullpen since being called up in 2020, and is getting his first taste in a starter's role this year. He has not pitched more than four innings in a start since June 30 against the Colorado Rockies, and his 124.2 innings this year are more than double his previous season-high of 54.1 in 2021.

Crochet's AL Cy Young odds had gotten as high as +1000 on FanDuel on July 21, but have plummeted to +20,000 after a bumpy August.

In the National League, rookie pitcher Paul Skenes, who started the All-Star Game, is also potentially facing an innings limit down the stretch for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are falling further out of playoff contention by the week.

Per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, the Pirates have no plans to shut down Skenes down the stretch, but they are considering adding an innings limit similar to Crochet's.

Skenes holds an ERA of 2.30 with 121 strikeouts in 98.0 innings this season, and is currently the favourite on FanDuel to take home the NL Rookie of the Year award.

The 22-year-old phenom who routinely touches 100mph with his fastball has thrown 125.1 innings between Triple-A and the majors this year, and Pittsburgh could opt to play it safe with their prized pitcher.

Pitchers facing innings limits in their early years has become more of a regular occurrence in the last 15 years - but the results have varied widely from case to case.

Stephen Strasburg, who had Tommy John surgery in 2010 one year after being selected first overall by the Washington Nationals, was shut down at a pre-determined 160 innings limit in 2012 in the midst of a potential Cy Young season. 

The lanky righty pitched seven more seasons in Washington, earning World Series MVP in 2019, but pitched just eight more games after that over the next four seasons due to various injuries before calling it a career earlier this year.

Matt Harvey reportedly faced a similar innings limit in 2015, which he did not strictly adhere to as the New York Mets made a trip to the World Series that postseason.

The righty had had Tommy John surgery the previous season, and was reportedly warned about putting to much stress on his arm.

"You know, I think that this always should be a doctor's decision because this is about the well-being of the patient. And any club that chooses to defy a surgeon, a medical expert, you know, they are obviously putting the player in peril," said Harvey's agent Scott Boras after that season.

He pitched another six years in the majors, but exceeded 100 innings in only two of those years, and never held an ERA below 4.86 after carrying an ERA below 3.00 in his first three seasons.

It will be a 'wait-and-see' situation for these three pitchers' careers, but for the 2024 campaign, innings limits will significantly alter the race for some of MLB's key awards.