Bellus’ Betting Breakdown: We were one year early

I made the worst prediction of all time last year. 

On this site, I made the case for the Kansas City Chiefs to miss the playoffs. 

Here’s how that went. 

Patrick Mahomes won MVP 

Kansas City won the Super Bowl 

Not great, Bob. 

But the great thing about being wrong is that you’re never completely wrong.

I wasn’t wrong when I said the Chiefs would miss the playoffs last year, I was just one year early. 

See how that works? 

Yes, I’m writing this article again. And yes, I believe there is a case to be made for Kansas City missing the playoffs this year. 

 Am I doing it with the same glee and optimism as September of 2022, when I wrote the “Chiefs are going to miss the playoffs” article? But that’s life, baby.

Before we get to this year, let’s take a stroll down memory lane of the worst predictions in the history of predictions. 
 

TOUGH SCHEDULE, HARD DIVISION 

LOSING TYREEK HILL / AN AGING KELCE 

WHAT WILL THE DEFENCE LOOK LIKE? 

“Hard Divison” 

Nope.  

The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos handed the Chiefs four wins, and Kansas City swept the division.  

More about the schedule later... I'm stepping on that rake again this year. 

“Losing Tyreek Hill / An Aging Kelce” 

The Chiefs led the league in points, yards and first downs in 2022. 

And Travis Kelce had one of the best years of his career, despite turning 33 during the season. 

 Turns out Patrick Mahomes isn’t just the sum of his parts. His play in 2022 was a reminder of why he’s the best quarterback in the league. 

“What will the defence look like?” 

It didn’t matter. The offence was light years better than we thought and a league-average defence was more than enough. 

 —

Okay, now that we’ve revisited last year, can we move forward to 2023? 

Let’s do that. 

 Let’s get to the reasons I’m writing this thing again. 

 

The schedule will *actually* be tough this year 

Last season, the Chiefs were projected to play one of the hardest schedules in the league.

But according to Warren Sharp, only five teams the Chiefs played last season went over their win total. And Kansas City ended up playing the fourth-easiest schedule. 

This season, based on win totals, they are projected to play the fifth-most difficult schedule. 

Another factor this season adding to a tough schedule is the Rest Advantage.

After having the fifth-best rest advantage (+9) in 2021 and the six-best (+7) in 2022 the Chiefs are on the wrong side of the rest advantage in 2023 coming in at -13.

Every game they play from Week 12 through 17 will come against an opponent with more rest than them. And their net rest over that stretch is -20.

 

Kelce isn’t getting any younger 

Last year I wrote about Kelce and his age. He turned 33 in October of 2022, and I had him on the wrong side of history.  

I went and looked at a lot of tight ends, and I couldn’t find many good seasons for them once they hit the age of 33. 

Kelce proceeded to have the best season any tight end age 33 has ever had with 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

So I guess I’m here to double down on the age thing. 

Aside from Pete Retzlaff with the 1965 Philadelphia Eagles, no tight end has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in a season after turning 34. 

All of the greats slow down at some point. And if Max Kellerman can stand his ground with the Tom Brady cliff thing, so can I with Kelce. 

Kelce has already suffered a knee injury before the start of the 2023 season. His health, and availability, have been huge for this team. After all, Kelce has missed just three games since 2015. 

Last season, he led the team in basically every receiving stat and it wasn’t close. If he is forced to miss any long periods of time, Mahomes could have a hard time finding gamebreakers to win with this receiving corps.

According to ESPN, Mahomes has made 2,956 dropbacks with Kelce on the field and only 343 drop backs in his career without his star tight end in the field.

In those 343 drop backs, his yards per attempt drops by one yard, his total QB drops from 79 to 65 and his air yards per attempt falls from 8.0 to 6.1.

 

Eric Bieniemy

The Chiefs have a lot of brilliant minds in their offensive meetings, but they lost one of their best this off-season. 

Eric Bieniemy signed with the Washington Commanders this summer as their assistant head coach and offensive coordinator. He had been with the Chiefs since Andy Reid hired him in 2013, and was the team’s offensive coordinator since 2018. 

In 2021, after Bieniemy had once again been passed over as a head coach by teams, Mahomes joined Dan Patrick on the radio. 

”It amazes me, honestly," Mahomes said on the Dan Patrick Show. "If you look at his track record and the way he's able to coach us, the way he's able to lead men. ... It's a special talent.

"It's a loss for everybody else in the NFL and a gain for us. Hopefully he gets his chance, because he'll succeed at wherever he is. But if he doesn't, we're glad enough to have him back again."

And while I’m not questioning if Mahomes and Reid can figure out ways to score points, I’m just wondering if losing a “special talent” like Bieniemy can limit the ceiling by just a tad. 

… so there you have it. 

I can’t wait to talk about the time we predicted the Chiefs to miss the playoffs just one year early. 

See you next year when I justify why we were probably just *two* years too early.