3rd and 1: Best Bets for CFL East & West Finals

And then there were four.  And wouldn’t you know it?  They’re the four teams I expected to still be playing for a chance to go to the 111th Grey Cup.  One would think that’s a good thing for someone who makes picks, but therein lies the danger of betting underdogs against the spread. 

Now the question becomes:  Would I be foolish to do it again?  Or wise to not let the past cloud the future?  Be it smart or stubborn, the dogs are still barking. 

Toronto Argonauts at Montreal Alouettes

The Argos are underdogs for the Eastern Final, but I’d still take Toronto if the line were flipped.  Say what you want about Chad Kelly, but his team has arguably been the best in the CFL since he returned from suspension at the end of August.  The Argos are 4-and-oh in Kelly’s last four starts.  Makai Polk has been the best deep threat in the league over that span, averaging well over 100 yards per game.  If Damonte Coxie is back, it’s just another weapon for a team that scored more points than any other this season despite not having their MOP quarterback available until week 12.  The Argos also have the edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  They finished with 48 sacks this season, nine more than any other team.  Let’s not forget that five weeks ago, the Argos won by six with Kelly and Cody Fajardo on the field.  We think Fajardo is healthy, but he hasn’t been the same since returning from a hamstring injury against the Argos at the beginning of July.  The Als limped into the playoffs with a 2-4-1 record since Labour Day Weekend.  Short of a Déjà Vu experience in which Kelly turns it over multiple times, I think the Argos are going to the Grey Cup.

THE PICK: ARGONAUTS +1.5

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Threading the needle for the Western Final.  I think the Bombers are headed to their fifth straight Grey Cup.  No team has done that since Edmonton went to six in a row from 1977 through 1982.  Not to take away from Winnipeg’s success, but that team not only appeared in six straight, they won five consecutive titles with Warren Moon under centre.  A Grey Cup win this year and we could comfortably call the Bombers a dynasty.  However, the Riders will be tough to beat.  I’ve written about how opportunistic their defence has been all season.  They forced 49 turnovers, ten more than any other unit.  They had a +26 turnover ratio, 16 better than the next closest team.  They added three interceptions last week against BC.  Trevor Harris has been elite despite dealing with a ton of injuries to his offensive weapons.  AJ Ouellette returned to put up 70 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s West Semi.  The offence is balanced.  The defence is dangerous.  I think it will be close.

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS +3.5

Player Prop Best Bet: KIAN SCHAFFER-BAKER OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (-138)

Canadian Kian Schaffer-Baker had a modest four catches for 39 yards in last week’s playoff win over the Lions.  He’s the 3rd option in this passing attack most weeks but against the Bombers?  Schaffer-Baker has had at least four catches and 60 yards in all three meetings with Winnipeg this season.  He had six catches for a season-high 120 yards in their last meeting in the Banjo Bowl.  Against the league’s best pass defence, quick passes to the sure-handed big body could be Harris’ bread and butter.

GREY CUP Best Bet: ARGONAUTS +290

As I alluded to earlier, I think the Argos have been arguably the best team in the league for two months.  The big game will be played indoors at BC Place, meaning Chad Kelly’s deep ball will be unaffected by the elements.  They’re currently the third choice to win the Grey Cup with nearly 3-to-1 odds.  That’s too good to pass up with only a week to wait.