3rd and 1: Best Bets for CFL East & West Semi-Finals

Pumped for Playoffs!  First, time to take stock of the regular season.  We’re 35-23 with this column’s picks which is a solid 60 percent success rate.  But it’s been a roller coaster ride.  We started 10-1 over the first four weeks.  Then went on a stomach churning 8-16 stretch during the summer.  Rebounding with a 15-2 record since week 16.  Not bad but horn tooting time is over.  After the warmest Halloween in recent history, the weather in the East is turning in time for CFL semis. 

Ottawa Redblacks at Toronto Argonauts

Here we go again.  Same teams, same venue as two weeks ago when the Argos won by seven at home to ensure that the East Semi would be at BMO Field.  But the score doesn’t tell the story.  Toronto was up 38-6 entering the 4th quarter when Ottawa put up 25 unanswered points to turn what was a blowout into an intriguing playoff preview.  While it would be easy to dismiss Dru Brown’s 400 passing yards and four touchdowns for coming in ‘garbage time,’ it’s important to note that that was his first game action in four weeks.  He followed up that performance with 445 passing yards and three touchdowns in last Friday’s regular season finale against the Ti-Cats.  Brown has not one, but two of the league’s best receivers in Justin Hardy who finished second in yards this season, and Kalil Pimpleton who averaged almost 90 yards per game – best in the league.  His third option, Dominique Rhymes, finished second in CFL receiving yards two years ago.  Ottawa’s offence has what it takes to keep pace.  Can the O-line keep the league’s best pass rush at bay? Without much threat of a run game, that’s my biggest concern for the Redblacks.  On the other side, Chad Kelly can make it look easy at times but it’s hard to forget that his only playoff start was a battle from the beginning.  It was less than a year ago that he threw four picks to the eventual Grey Cup champions and looked more like a lost puppy instead of the MOP.  

THE PICK: REDBLACKS +6.5

BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders

The Riders won by thirty when they played the Lions three ago.  But that was with Nathan Rourke at quarterback.  BC is Vernon Adams’ team now.  It was hard to imagine that adding the 2022 Most Outstanding Canadian, returning from the NFL midseason, would disrupt the Den as badly as it did.  Though it appears that order has been restored in the nick of time.  The result speak for themselves when Adams is healthy and playing.  All signs are pointing in the right direction for the Lions.  Coach Rick Campbell said this is the first time all season that everyone has been available to practice.  I’m not discounting what the Riders have done this season.  Trevor Harris is elite and the defence can cause fits.  But with Adams under centre, the difference between these teams feels like a field goal or less.

THE PICK: LIONS +3.5

Player Props Best Bet: DRU BROWN OVER 308.5 PASSING YARDS

I can’t decide between Kalil Pimpleton and Justin Hardy.  They’ve both been great and have the potential to have big games against the Argos but what if Toronto decides to take away one of them?  Which one will it be?  No matter how the story unfolds, I don’t see Dru Brown being shut down.  He threw for 349 against the Argos in a week 16 win.  He threw for 400 yards coming from behind in the loss two weeks ago.  I already alluded to the fact that they don’t have much of a ground game, so the offence will have to go through the air.