3rd and 1: Best Bets for Week 10 of the CFL Season

“Life’s this game of inches.  So is football.

Because in either game, life or football, the margin for error is so small. 

One-half a step too late or too early and you don’t quite make it…

The inches we need are everywhere around us.”

Any Given Sunday.  Flawed as the Oliver Stone film may have been, Al Pacino’s pregame speech at the end walks the right side of the line between corny and captivating.  It helps that I have heard hundreds of pregame speeches in my time, none as good as that one.  Any given Sunday / game day, anything can happen is the message.  With trust, toughness, and of course teamwork WE can overcome anything.  I believe it and this CFL season has demonstrated it several times over.  Calgary outscoring Toronto 21-0 in the 4^th quarter to cover the spread by a half point on Sunday in the most recent example.  Saturday saw one of the league’s best defences get shredded by a guy who wasn’t good enough to start for a winless team a couple weeks ago.

Then there was last Thursday night’s shutout.  A Bombers defence that was vulnerable to big plays embarrassed the Lions top ranked attack.  That was just last week.  No less than seven times has a team comeback from a 12-point deficit to win a game this season.  Underdogs are 22-and-14 against the spread.  Clichés coming:  Anything can happen.  It’s why they play the games.  Expect the unexpected entering week 10.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Ottawa Redblacks

The Riders have lost back-to-back games and they’ve blown fourth quarter leads in both of them.  The first was to Davis Alexander in his Alouettes debut, the second was to Tre Ford in his first start for the Elks.  Both losses ought to make them ornery for Thursday Night Football.

Meanwhile, Ottawa’s Dru Brown is the answer as long as he’s working with a clean pocket.  But under pressure?  Brown is last among qualifying QBs with a 34.4 efficiency rating, zero touchdowns and three interceptions.  Riders veteran D-lineman Micah Johnson is second in sacks with four this season, the team is tied for second with seventeen.  If they can get Brown on the move, The Riders D is likely to add to its league high takeaway total.  Of some concern is that they’ll be missing one of the league’s best linebackers in Jameer Thurman who was added to an already lengthy injured list this week.  The Redblacks are also coming off a bye, but that doesn’t always lead to being rested and prepared.  Look no further than the Lions shut out loss last week.  

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS +3.5

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes

“Either we heal now as a team, or we will die as individuals.  That’s football guys.  That’s all it is.” - Coach Tony D’Amato, Any Given Sunday.

The 2^nd half of a home and home goes Saturday in Montreal.  Hamilton already lost this matchup by seventeen at home, why would we pick them at +7.5 on the road?  Any Given game day.  Throw all the analysis out the window.  Hamilton has to have it and as long they’re willing to fight for inches, the fear of missing the playoffs before Labour Day should help them heal.

Despite their record, Bo Levi Mitchell is having a resurgence.  He now leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns and coming off his worst game of the season last week, look for the future hall of famer to at least keep it close.

THE PICK: TIGER-CATS +7.5

BC Lions at Edmonton Elks

All aboard!  The Tre Ford train has left the station.  He was electric, as advertised, in the Elks first win of the season last week.  Ford was 18-of-22 passing and the threat of his legs allowed Javon Leake to score three times as part a career day on the ground against the Riders last week.  Saskatchewan was actually leading that game heading into the 4^TH quarter when middle linebacker Jameer Thurman went down.  That was an obvious green light for the Elks ground attack.  Unless there’s something more seriously wrong in BC, the Lions should have a snarl after being shut out by the Bombers.  If the Lions defence can contain Edmonton’s ground game and force Ford to throw it, the strategy for how to hunt Elk will be set for the rest of the season.  

THE PICK: LIONS +1.5

CFL Fantasy Best Bet:  William Stanback ($ 11.7 K)

Hardly a bargain, but there shouldn’t be any budget trouble this week.  Big Willi Stanback should see plenty of action.  The first year Lion is used to being a workhorse out the backfield but he’s had a lighter workload than usual this season.  That was part of the deal when signing up to play with Vernon Adams in BC.  Now that it’s Jake Dolegala under centre, saddle up William Stanback.  Combined with wanting to keep the ball away from Tre Ford as much as possible, Stanback should see a season high in carries this week.