3rd and 1: Best Bets for Week 12 of the CFL Season

Rust is real. The orange trim of the black jersey didn’t hide it on Nathan Rourke in what was supposed to be a triumphant return from the NFL this past Sunday. In hindsight, it was unrealistic to expect the guy that lit up the league in 2022 then left to walk back into the Lions locker room and in less than a week, look like nothing had changed. Like an orchestra, offence is about rhythm and timing. Rehearsal is required. And in football they say nothing replicates game speed. With more big name quarterbacks making their returns in Week 12, it might be more realistic to expect a bit of rust.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Toronto Argonauts

Chad Kelly’s return will be a little less celebrated than Rourke’s. His Most Outstanding Player award last season was for his on-field game only. That’s where the Argos desperately need him. The boatmen were the league’s second highest scoring offence a year ago with Kelly at the helm. Without him this year they’re more than 40 yards a game behind the next worst team in terms of net offence. Credit Ryan Dinwiddie for coaching them to winning record halfway through their schedule. They’ve managed to bail water until Kelly is back, but it could be a rough ride at first if the sails don’t instantly catch wind. Saskatchewan is the storm ahead. Corey Mace’s defence picked off Cameron Dukes four times in Week 5. They’ve forced eight more turnovers than the next closest team. Not exactly a gentle breeze for Kelly to ease back into action. And as good as Kelly’s regular season was, he’s had 10 months to think about throwing four picks in a playoff game the last time he took the field. The Riders have had their own issues moving the ball but if rust is the rule, Trevor Harris was the exception in his return from injury last week. He completed almost 80 per cent of his passes for 355 yards and two touchdowns, zero picks. Against anyone except Montreal it would have been enough to win, something they haven’t done since Week 7. I say Sask snaps that streak but I’ll take the points, please and thank you.

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS +1.5

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Pardon me while I finish chewing on my words. One word in particular that I used to describe the Bombers earlier this season is stuck to the roof of my mouth. I called them old. Oops. As if 3rd and 1 was posted on the bulletin board in the Bombers locker room, they’ve since stuck it to anyone who suggested their era may have been over. I apologize. Last week Zach Collaros was sandwiched in the first quarter - his helmet hit from front and back as he clutched the ball and went down for a sack. I held my breath but Zach popped up and threw a strike to Nic Demski in the endzone on the very next play. The Bombers defence has been especially dominant. Led by the youthful experience of Adam Bighill and Willie Jefferson, they haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game since Week 6. Bighill is now on the six-game injured list and it’s a big spread but, at the risk of making another meal of my words, the Ticats have no claws. Hamilton’s defence is a mess and nothing about Chris Jones’ record in Edmonton would suggest he can fix it in couple of days.

THE PICK: BLUE BOMBERS -9.5

BC Lions at Ottawa Redblacks

From the burnt orange hue that was evident from under-use, I think we’ll see a metallic sheen to Nathan Rourke in Ottawa this week. Mix in an attitude after a disappointing debut and the Redblacks undefeated home record could be in jeopardy. Dru Brown is back after missing last week with a foot injury. Hardly enough time to develop any rust but if he’s missing any mobility, already average at best, it could be an issue Saturday night. Nobody’s allowed more sacks than the Redblacks this season and they’re facing a Lions defence that has the second most sacks in the league. BC’s lost four straight but I expect to see the Maple Messiah don a cape in the nation’s capital. 

THE PICK: LIONS -1.5

CFL Fantasy Best Bet: JUSTIN RANKIN ($2.5K)

Sticking with this week’s theme, I would lean toward the Elks to cover in Montreal if it weren’t for how good the Als have been regardless of who’s been their quarterback. Cody Fajardo could be rusty in his return. The Elks have won three straight and any success they’ve had on offence has come from running the ball. Since making his CFL debut three weeks ago, Justin Rankin has four touchdowns. He’s also had six catches, one of which was for a score. The Elks are likely to ride the hot hand at running back but it doesn’t get any hotter than his 108 yard, three touchdown performance last week in Hamilton. With Javon Leake limited at practice, Rankin should have the edge.