3rd and 1: Best Bets for Week 7 of the CFL Season

“Success is not final.  Failure is not fatal.  It is the courage to continue that counts.”

If this is a quote from Winston Churchill, it was probably meant to inspire confidence and strengthen the resolve of those who entered battle with little else, at a time when the future path of humanity teetered on the precipice.  But, if the quote is falsely attributed to Churchill, then it might as well be about my 3rd and 1 record entering week 7.  Failure is not fatal, but the accompanying fear can be debilitating.  And, after back-to-back 1-2, courage doesn’t come easy.

Too soon for war metaphors? 12-6 on the season and hoping to avoid being stung by another quarterback injury. Welcome to week seven, and with a bit of luck, the start of a new streak.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Saskatchewan Roughriders

They’ve put the ‘win’ back in Winnipeg, at least for now.  Back-to-back victories for the Bombers with a trip to Saskatchewan on deck.  Winnipeg has been a favourite in every game so far, but they’ve covered the spread just once – thanks in part to a headshot delivered to Dru Brown in the second quarter of their win over the Ottawa Redblacks two weeks ago.  Meanwhile, the Riders are coming home after their first loss of the season.  Blue giveth, green taketh away.  Therein lies the key to this game.  Saskatchewan’s D forced another two turnovers last week, bringing their season total to 16 - with 11 interceptions, and they’ve scored a league-high 57 points off other team’s mistakes.  On the flip side, The Bombers are tied for the league lead with 11 giveaways.  Zach Collaros has a CFL-high six picks so far.  With the Riders, I get the best home crowd in the game, an opportunistic defence, plus three-and-a-half points?  Yes please.

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS +3.5

Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger-Cats

If you told me six weeks ago that Bo Levi Mitchell would be on pace for over 6,000 passing yards but the Tiger-Cats would be 0-5, I would inquire about your intoxicant of choice.  In this case, reality is stranger than anything an altered state could cook up.  As good as Bo Levi has been this season, the defence has struggled that badly.  They’re at or near the bottom of the league in all defensive categories.  Even in front of an adoring Hamilton crowd, they’ve allowed an average of 38.5 points in two games at the Donut Box this season.  With the exception of one game, Argos quarterback Cameron Dukes has looked solid for the most part.  But most impressive goes to Wynton McManis on defence.  He leads the league with 9 defensive stops and should keep running back James Butler in check.  With the spread under a field goal, I’ll take the better team.

THE PICK: ARGONAUTS -2.5

BC Lions at Calgary Stampeders

Vernon Adams threw for a season-low 277 yards and completed just 58 percent of his passes in week 2’s win over the Stamps.  The Lions still won that game by nine points.  At his current pace, Adams would finish 10 yards shy of Doug Flutie’s all-time single-season passing yards record.  His top two receivers have each been on pace to break the record for yards in a season at different times.  Point being: the Lions can move the ball a bit.  While Adams and the offence aren’t going to sneak up on anyone, the Lions' defence is going underrated.  Since Week 1’s loss in Toronto, BC has allowed an average of 22 points a game, which would be a league low.  It’s no surprise the Lions are Grey Cup favourites at this point in the season, so why aren’t they a bigger favourite on Sunday against the Stamps?

THE PICK: LIONS -4.5

CFL Fantasy Best Bet: SHEMAR BRIDGES ($6.0 K) / ONTARIA WILSON ($5.0K)

CFL Fantasy settings aren’t impressed by a single performance.  It takes a string of solid statistical showings to gain stud status.  Shhh. Until the secret is out, I’ll keep shouting.

Ti-Cats rookie receiver Shemar Bridges is 5th in CFL receiving yards.  He’s 4th in catches ahead of teammate Tim White despite having fewer targets.  And, while White has struggled to find chemistry with his quarterback, Bridges appears to be on field buddies with Bo.  If Hamilton continues to play from behind, expect Bridges to get a lot of balls.