3rd and 1: Best Bets for Week 8 of the CFL Season

“Much of what we consider valuable in our world arises out of these kinds of lopsided conflicts, because the act of facing overwhelming odds produces greatness and beauty.” – Malcolm Gladwell.

Underdogs are 19-9 against the spread this season in the CFL.  And, like David versus Goliath, those that are overlooked often produce the best results.  Sometimes, because they believe it’s their only chance to succeed.  Sometimes, it’s because the starting quarterback they’re facing is forced to leave the game.  Either way, the record is irrefutable.  The Winnipeg Blue Bombers certainly have something to do with it.  They entered the season with the shortest odds to win the Grey Cup. They’ve been favoured in every game so far, going 1-6 against the spread, and 2-5 straight up.  This week finally marks the first time that the Blue and Gold will be an underdog all season.  Will it bring out that dog in them?  While it may have four legs, I’m not lining up to pet it. In other words, I’ll wait and see with Winnipeg while turning my eye to some other dogs barking for attention.  Greatness and beauty await.

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes

Two one-loss first-placed teams kick off Thursday Night Football. However, neither will have their No. 1 quarterback.  Cody Fajardo facing his former team as a Grey Cup champ for the first time would have been a nice storyline.  Instead, it’s Caleb Evans who was just 12-of-22 with two picks after Fajardo’s exit against the Argos two weeks ago.  Meanwhile, Shea Patterson has been steady, not spectacular for Saskatchewan winning two of his three starts.  Making things a little more difficult against the defending champs is that he’ll be without both A.J. Ouellette and Kian Schaffer-Baker.  But offence isn’t the strength of this Riders team.  New head coach Corey Mace has already established an identity on defence.  They allow the fewest rush yards, the fewest yards on first down, the fewest yards per play, and they’ve given up the fewest touchdowns.  The Riders do allow yards through the air, but it’s only a matter of time before they take it away.  Sask has forced a league-high 19 turnovers – five more than the Als in second.  Jameer Thurman punching the ball out of NIc Demki’s hands after a big play in the 4th quarter of last week’s win exemplifies this defence.  It was a game-defining play from a unit that’s made a lot of them this season.  Getting points with this pack against a backup quarterback feels like man’s best friend is rubbing my belly.

THE PICK: ROUGHRIDERS +3.5

Calgary Stampeders at Ottawa Redblacks

“Nobody, and I mean nobody, comes into our house and pushes us around.” I'm not sure if the real Dan Devine said this or if it’s just a line from the movie Rudy – one of the best underdog stories ever.  In his pregame speech ahead of the final home game of the 1975 season, after which Rudy Ruettiger would become folklore, the Head Notre Dame Football Coach says what almost every coach has said at one time or another.  Was it a cliché at the time?  Or has it become one because of overuse?  If it was an original line, there’s a reason it has been repeated so many times.  Home teams are 19-9 this season.  The Redblacks are a perfect 3-0 at TD place, including two wins as the underdog.  I like Ottawa’s offence.  Stacked injuries in their secondary could be a concern but Calgary is winless away from its home crowd.

THE PICK: REDBLACKS +1.5

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Edmonton Elks

The two teams with the longest odds to win the Grey Cup will be on the field at Commonwealth Stadium on Sunday.  They have just one win between them, so let’s focus on the positive.  Hamilton’s home win over the Argos last week showed an inspired defensive performance from a unit that was anything but until that game.  Bo Levi Mitchell continues to turn back time.  He’s second in CFL passing yards and has twice as many touchdowns as interceptions for the first time since 2018.  As for the Elks, they played arguably their worst game of the season after firing head coach Chris Jones.  There still seems to be interest within the organization to see what Tre Ford can become, and while that seems like a worthy endeavour, it doesn’t bode well for their record in the short-term, especially if they’re asked to win by more than a field goal.  

THE PICK: TIGER-CATS +3.5

CFL Fantasy Best Bet: KALIL PIMPLETON ($ 4.0 K)

Kalil Pimpleton is poppin!… My apologies.  Over his first two CFL games, the Redblacks wide receiver has 14 targets, a team high 209 yards and a touchdown.  Adding to an offence with plenty of weapons, Pimpleton’s role only increased last week even if his production dipped from his debut in week 6.  With the Lions long list of high priced talent taking a much needed bye week, you may not need to go as low as $4.0 k to fill out your roster, but having a reliable receiver at this price point unlocks all of the top tier talent at other positions.