Bellus’ Betting Breakdown: Scottie By Five
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Winning almost felt impossible for Scottie Scheffler before the 2022 WM Phoenix Open.
And then the floodgates opened.
Scheffler won in Phoenix and, three weeks later, stole a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando. Following those victories, he picked up two dominating wins at the Match Play event in Texas and then at the Masters on April 10th of last year.
Scheffler’s 2022 campaign was one of the better years we’ve seen from a PGA Tour player in quite some time.
And he’s somehow been even better in 2023.
Despite only winning twice this year, Scottie has been better so far in 2023 than he was last year in almost every aspect of the game: Off the tee, on approach, and around the greens.
The 26-year-old Scheffler might have six wins under his belt this year if not for his putter, with his most recent example coming during the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in his last outing earlier this month.
Scheffler lost over eight strokes to the field putting – the second-worst putting week of his career.
According to RickRunGood.com, since 2008 there have been 162 instances of a golfer losing 8+ strokes putting and making the cut.
The previous best finish was T26 – John Rollins at the 2011 Zurich Classic.
Scheffler lost 8.42 strokes and finished third.
The American’s ball striking is on another level, and it has been for a long time.
Scottie By Five
Let’s address the headline – it’s aggressive, I know. But that’s the game, baby.
And I’m not saying Scottie is going to win the U.S. Open by five this week, but I’m not, not saying it.
His win at the Match Play event in 2022 was never in doubt as he took down the Kevin Kisner buzzsaw 4&3, and then went on to win the Masters by three shots, despite four-putting the final green.
Scheffler’s next ‘when’ came this year in Phoenix, when he stood on the 72nd hole with a three-shot lead.
And this year at TPC Sawgrass, he made for a boring Sunday when his 54-hole two-shot lead quickly ballooned en route to a five-shot win.
I was on Scottie that week, but I’ve been good at laying off him as well.
I didn’t outright bet him at the Masters, and I didn’t outright him at the PGA.
At the PGA, I made a nice investment on him to top 10, and it cashed.
The same way a Scheffler top 10 has cashed in four straight events and 10 times since the start of 2023.
But this week, I’m plugging my nose and taking the +700 to win outright.
Here’s the way I look at it.
Most weeks, I think you can make a case for almost any top golfer to beat another top golfer.
Who can you confidently say will be better than Scheffler this week? Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, maybe?
It’s a short list.
Scheffler has finished inside the top 10 in seven of the last nine majors and is -135 to do so again this week at the Los Angeles Country Club.
The number is bad, and I hate it. I normally don’t play golfers at a price like this. But when it comes to major championship golf, the cream rises to the top.
It’s hard for me to imagine a world where Scottie Scheffler doesn’t pick off a major this year, and it’s very tough not to see him in one of the final two groups on Sunday.
The 7-1 number isn’t great, but when he has a five-shot lead coming down 18 Sunday night, I’ll be perfectly fine.