Betting Breakdown: Spot in final up for grabs on last day of 4 Nations pool play

Blink, and you’ll miss it, hockey fans. 

After months of build-up and anticipation, it’s time for two teams to see their run at the 4 Nations come to an end on Monday. 

As we enter the final day of pool play, the American squad is the only team safe. The other three have a chance, but they all need wins for a chance to make the final. 

Some find the path to the final more straightforward while others will need some help. However, given the odds and how a tiebreaker could shake out, Canada holds the upper hand. 

Entering today, a final between the USA and Canada is priced at -320 on FanDuel. That number represents an implied probability of 76.19 per cent. 

Meanwhile, a final between USA and Finland comes in at +340 (22.73 per cent) and Sweden is +1600 (5.88 per cent) to advance. 

Just as we did before the big Canada-USA game, join me as I highlight a few storylines to watch today before handing it off to Domenic Padula, TSN’s Sr. Sports Betting Analyst, for his thoughts and a few bets on the action. 

Canada vs. Finland 

Despite Connor McDavid opening the scoring and the team outshooting the USA Saturday night, Team Canada lost for the first time in best-on-best international play since 2010. The loss also snapped Sidney Crosby's 26-game win streak while playing for Canada in all international competitions since 2010. 

Canada last lost in best-on-best action in the preliminary stages of the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, and we all know how that ended. 

Now, Canada turns its attention to a must-win game against Finland. 

Canada has won the last three meetings between the two nations at the World Championships, the most recent being a 5-3 win in 2024. Brandon Hagel scored the game-winning goal, and Jordan Binnington made 29 saves. 

Hagel, who has yet to score in the first two games, is +410 to score Monday afternoon. 

With Canada such a heavy favourite to win, it’s no surprise to see the first seven names listed to score a goal all come from the Canadian side. 

Mikko Rantanen, Patrik Laine, Sebastian Aho and Aleksander Barkov are the only players on Team Finland listed at shorter than +500 to score, while Canada has 11 players that can say the same. 

The last time these two nations met in best-on-best action was the 2014 Olympic Games with Canada emerging victorious in a 2-1 overtime thriller with Drew Doughty netting the winner. 

Doughty had both goals for Canada that day and is +950 to score against Finland again today. 

A win in regulation would guarantee Canada’s spot in the final. They are -260 on FanDuel to win the 60-minute moneyline. 

USA vs. Sweden 

As the action shifts from Montreal to Boston it’s been nothing but smooth sailing and Free Bird for Team USA. 

The Americans went 2-0 in Montreal, outscoring Canada and Finland by a combined score of 9-2. 

Goalie Connor Hellebuyck has made 45 saves in the two wins and is the favourite to win tournament MVP at +240 after entering the event at 10-1. 

Team USA is now a -155 favourite to win the tournament. They are seeking their first best-on-best event win since the 1996 World Cup. 

With Matthew Tkachuk’s status still in question, and the fact they have secured a spot in the final, it feels safe to assume we could see some lineup tweaks for the Americans in the final game of pool play. 

However, I wouldn’t expect any letdown from the group, especially after hearing what forward Kyle Connor had to say, “I don’t think it changes the way we approach it,” Connor said. “You never want to let off the gas in any sense. It gives us a chance to work on the game knowing our schedule going forward.” 

As for Sweden, they’ll need some help in the early game as they cannot advance if the Canada-Finland game ends in regulation, regardless of the winner. 

However, if the first game played today reaches overtime, it’ll open the door to a Sweden path to the final via a regulation win. 

That’s their only option. 

If the early game ends in regulation, that team will advance, and Sweden will be left playing just for pride,. 

“Regardless of what we’re playing for, if we’re playing for a spot in the championship game or if we’re playing for the pride of our country and the crowns on our chest, that’s our mindset right now,” forward Rickard Rakell said. “There’s still a chance we could be playing to win this thing, but obviously it’s not up to us anymore.

Padula's 4 Nations Face-Off Day 4 bets

Less than 48 hours after Saturday night's thrilling showdown between Canada and USA, Canadians get the opportunity to turn the page and cheer for their home team in a highly-anticipated must-win game versus Finland.

Who steps up for Canada? My money is on Nathan MacKinnon.

The perennial Hart Trophy candidate stepped up with the opening goal of the tournament versus Sweden and finished that game with a total of six shots on goal.

After he was limited to one shot on goal and a minus-one rating in a disappointing loss to Team USA, I expect him to bounce back with a much better performance in a more favourable match-up this afternoon.

I've already locked in three FanDuel Best Bets in my Morning Coffee column, including a builder SGP focused on MacKinnon.

In terms of anytime goal scorer props at FanDuel, I'll roll the dice with MacKinnon +145, Connor McDavid +155, and Mark Stone at +240.

I'll also add a trio of FanDuel Best Bets with Mark Stone to record 1+ point and Canada to win as a builder Same Game Parlay at -110 odds, Brayden Point to record 1+ point at -104, and Anton Lundell over 1.5 shots on goal at +140.

Hopefully, Canada's best step up in a dominant win to set up a rematch with Team USA in the final for the 4 Nations Face-Off. Enjoy the game, everyone!