Morning Coffee: Nix named Broncos QB, boosting number of Rookie Week 1 starters

From the moment that he was selected first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, we knew Caleb Williams would be the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears this season.

It’s the same story for Jayden Daniels as the second overall pick to the Washington Commanders.

There was a lot less certainty after the top two selections.

Turning back the clock, over 4.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round was my FanDuel Best Bet for the 2024 NFL Draft.

That bet cashed within the first 10 picks and ultimately six different quarterbacks went in the first round.

At the time, FanDuel set the over/under for the number of NFL Week 1 rookie starting QBs at 4.5.

This time, I jumped on the under.

Williams and Daniels were always locks to start for their respective teams if healthy.

Beyond those top two picks, I believed only one other rookie QB would potentially be a good fit to start Week 1.

As it turns out, I’m on track to be right on both accounts.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday, August 22^nd, 2024.

Nix Named Broncos QB, Boosting Number of NFL Rookie Week 1 Starters

Bo Nix was named the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos on Wednesday.

Although head coach Sean Payton insisted that there was a QB battle between Nix and veteran Jarrett Stidham, Nix clearly separated himself with a strong performance this pre-season, and it was enough to earn the starting job.

Nix will become the first rookie QB to start for the Broncos since John Elway.

While there will be a ton of pressure on Nix from the outset, I always thought he was the most likely rookie QB beyond Williams and Daniels to start Week 1 for a couple of reasons.

First, Nix is clearly the most talented passer in Denver’s QB room, which also features Stidham and New York Jets’ cast-off Zach Wilson.

Second, Nix is 24-years-old.

Nix is three years older than last year’s first overall pick Bryce Young was when he debuted for the Carolina Panthers.

Considering everything that is put on the plate of these rookie QBs, a three-year age difference matters.

Third, Payton was paid a lot of money by Denver as a highly-regarded, veteran offensive-minded head coach.

Payton was brought in to turn the Broncos around, and if he believes that Nix is ready to start in the NFL, he’s certainly qualified to make that call.

I don’t believe Denver’s early-season schedule is ideal for starting a rookie QB, but it’s better than some.

More on that in just a moment.

The Broncos are a 4.5-point underdog for their opener at the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1.

They’re a +680 longshot to make the playoffs – the longest odds of any AFC West team.

Denver won’t be favoured in many games this season.

Still, Nix is down from +2000 to +1100 as the fourth choice to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at FanDuel.

Only Williams (+120), Daniels (+600), and Arizona Cardinals rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (+650) have shorter odds to win that award.

It will be interesting to see if Nix can exceed expectations in his first year and put himself in the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation in a very deep rookie class.

Obviously, Payton believes Nix is their best option in both the short and the long term.

Speaking of a deep rookie class, it’s important to keep in mind that Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy was a top-10 choice to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year before suffering a season-ending injury.

The Vikings might have gone with veteran Sam Darnold as their Week 1 starter, regardless of McCarthy’s status.

Still, there is a good chance that McCarthy would have played at some point this season if he was healthy.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Falcons rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. was always expected to sit behind veteran Kirk Cousins as a rookie this season.

With McCarthy sidelined and Penix backing up Cousins, that leaves one more question mark when it comes to potential rookie QB Week 1 starters.

New England Patriots first-year head coach Jerod Mayo made it clear earlier in the offseason that veteran Jacoby Brissett is the teams’ No. 1 QB.

However, when asked if Maye could start Week 1 earlier this week, Mayo had the following to say:

Mayo clarified his comments about his starting QB situation on Wednesday, but he also left the door open for Maye to be his Week 1 starter.

Unlike Nix in Denver, I did not pencil in Maye as a Week 1 starter for New England for a couple of reasons.

First, at 21-years-old, Maye is three years younger than the 24-year-old Nix.

Second, Maye is working under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, who is installing an entirely new offence in New England.

It will take time for the other players to learn the offence and gel together, and it would make a lot of sense for them to do it with a veteran quarterback in Brissett.

Third, on paper the Patriots have one of the worst groups of pass catchers in the entire NFL, lacking the type of dominant No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers that can make it easier on a rookie QB as he transitions to the NFL.

Finally, New England’s early-season schedule is brutal.

The Patriots open the season on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals.

After their home opener against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2, they’ll visit the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers in back-to-back road games in Weeks 3 and 4.

After returning home to face the Miami Dolphins in Week 5, New England will host the Houston Texans in Week 6.

There’s a good possibility that the Patriots start 0-6.

They’re a +270 favourite to finish with the NFL’s worst regular season record at FanDuel.

No other team has shorter than +750 odds in that market.

My preference would be for Brissett to start against the Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins, and Texans as many expected.

At the very least, Maye would get a few weeks to watch and learn while the veterans on the roster sorted out any early-season issues under Van Pelt.

Ironically, Patriots legend Tom Brady talked about the problem with rookie quarterbacks being thrown into the fire too early and the negative impact that has on their careers.

Maybe Maye is ready to start for New England in Week 1.

Regardless, I believe that Patriots are better off waiting, which matches Brady’s sentiment of giving a young QB the opportunity to watch and learn.

Williams, Daniels, and Nix are all set to start in Week 1.

Nobody will be surprised if Maye starts for the Patriots sooner rather than later, even if he doesn’t get the nod for Week 1 in Cincinnati.

Hopefully for the Patriots, it doesn’t turn out to be a tragedy.