Bob Weeks Picks Six – Arnold Palmer Invitational
Published
Last week: We only cashed one ticket, but we were oh-so-close in a few other categories. However, as the old saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes and drive-in movies. Our winner was Shane Lowry for low UK&I golfer which we had at +160.
This week: It’s another signature event and this week is when the build-up to the Masters begins. It’s the Arnold Palmer Invitational which is played on a very challenging Bay Hill course which was the 10th hardest layout played on last year’s PGA Tour schedule.
Last year, the average score was 72.33 which is the easiest it has played since 2019. The weather this year won’t make things easier as there are windy conditions and rain in the forecast for all four days. Look for players who have a lot of patience to play well.
To win:
Rory McIlroy +750
McIlroy is a past winner at Arnie’s course and in the last eight years, he’s been inside the top 21 all eight times. In addition to the win, he has five other top 10s. So you get the idea; he likes the course. Has a win already this year and we have our fingers crossed that he has the putter figured out after an anguishing week at the Genesis.
Justin Thomas +2500
These odds on FanDuel seem attractive for Thomas who was tied for 12th here last year. He’s seventh in Strokes Gained: Total and second in Putting Average. His only weak spot now seems to be off the tee. He arrives in Orlando having finished inside the top 10 in three of his last four starts.
Top 10
Tommy Fleetwood +190
After starting with a 75, Fleetwood played three solid rounds at the Genesis to end up tied for fifth. Hasn’t played a ton on either the PGA or DP tours, but from what we’ve seen, he looks good from tee to green and leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. Has two top 10s and a tie for third at this tournament.
Keegan Bradley +290
Good odds on a player who has played solid if not spectacular golf so far this year. In his past four starts at Bay Hill, the Ryder Cup captain has three finishes inside the top 11. Has always been a solid player off the tee, a much-needed commodity at this course.
Top 20
Nick Taylor +220
We jumped all over these juicy odds as Taylor comes in with a win under his belt and a top 10 at Genesis in his last start. He finished tied for 12th here last year. He’s 13th in Driving Accuracy and sixth in Greens In Regulation so far this season.
Ben Griffin +150
Tied for fourth in both of his last two starts so we like his form. Played here once before and ended up tied for 14th. A very respectable 39th in Strokes Gained: Total.
Props
Top European
Ludvig Aberg +450
Rory is the favourite but Aberg has played well here in his last two starts.
Top Canadian
Nick Taylor +360
More juicy odds for Taylor
Holes 1-3 winner, Rd 1
Justin Thomas over Xander Schauffele -125
Schauffele hasn’t played in two months