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Bob Weeks Picks Six – The Genesis Scottish Open
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Last week: For the first time in more than two months, we struck out with our picks, going 0-fer. We’ve had quite a run of late and are hoping to re-start the winning ways this week.
This week: The Genesis Scottish Open is a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, and also a great warm-up for next week when the season’s last major, the Open, is played. A year ago, Rory McIlroy hit a brilliant two-iron into a gale to set up a winning shot on the final hole. He’s back again, playing for the first time since the U.S. Open debacle and trying to become the first golfer to go back-to-back at the Scottish tournament. The course hosting the tournament is the Renaissance Club, which has been the home for the event for the last six years. The Tom Doak-designed course opened in 1997 and features something unusual for top Scotties courses – trees! Although they don’t play a huge part in play on the course, they are ever-present. The elements will likely be the biggest factor to what a player shoots, with the weather not expected to get above 14 degrees and some strong winds and rain heading in for the weekend.
To Win
Rory McIlroy +650
His first start back since his stumble at the U.S. Open, McIlroy comes in as the defending champion. Despite his loss at Pinehurst, McIlroy has not been outside the top 15 in his last six starts and sits in third spot in Strokes Gained: Total, a good indicator of all-around solid play. He finished 15 under here last year and will likely need that or even a bit more to get the job done this time.
Tommy Fleetwood +2000
The Englishman has been inside the top 26 in his last six starts, including a 15th-place finish at the Travelers where he shot 66-65 on the weekend. In his last four appearances at this tournament, he’s posted a tie for sixth, a tie for fourth and a runner-up finish. He’s good value at this price.
Top 10
Xander Schauffele +125
The winner of this tournament two years ago, Schauffele also has a top 10 on his resume. Has not been outside the top 25 in his last 12 starts. In majors this year he’s been eighth (Masters), winner (PGA) and tied for seventh (U.S. Open). He’s second on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total.
Aaron Rai +400
Rai won this tournament back in 2020, but has missed the cut in his past two appearances. Still, his play of late has been good. He’s been inside the top 20 in each of his last four starts, including a tie for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a tie for seventh at last week’s John Deere Classic. He sits seventh in Driving Accuracy and third in Greens in Regulation, a solid combination that leads to low scores.
Top 20
Min Woo Lee +150
A winner here back in 2021 Lee has been inside the top 26 in his last six starts including a tie for second at the Rocket Mortgage. He’s second in Total Driving on the PGA Tour and sits 10th in three-putt avoidance.
Tom Kim +160
In his last five starts, Kim has had a tie for fourth (RBC Canadian Open) and a playoff second (Travelers), although his most recent performance was a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage. That came on his ninth consecutive week on tour so we’ll give him a pass. His play at this event has been solid with a tie for sixth and a third in his last two visits.