Bob Weeks Picks Six – The Open Championship

Last week: The Scottish Open

Although we didn’t have the feel-good story of Robert McIntyre winning his home-country open, we did pick two winners. First was Aaron Rai, who was in our top-10 selections. He not only ended up tied for fourth but also earned a spot in the Open Championship with his finish. Our other winning ticket was Tom Kim who garnered a top-20 at +160.

This week: The Open Championship

The year’s last major tees off at Royal Troon, one of the tougher tracks in the Open rota. It’s a case of six-six-six. Or if you prefer, six-six-sick. The first six holes are relatively straight-forward, moving out in the same direction, meaning the same wind. The next six twist and turn, forcing players to find the wind’s direction. The last six coming home are brutally tough and will tell the tale of who gets the Claret Jug. The weather is expected to be somewhat nasty with some strong winds. That means slow greens to prevent the balls from rolling off. It’s a tough mental battle if you’re on the course. It’s great to watch if you’re at home on the couch. Of course the biggest lesson for anyone in the Open is: stay out of the bunkers.

To win

Rory McIlroy +850

I know, I know, I’m picking Rory again. It’s just that he comes in playing such great golf and, yes, with some U.S. Open scar tissue. But he’s going to win another major sometime and this would seem to be a great opportunity. Despite missing two short putts that cost him the U.S. Open, he played well at Pinehurst. He also played well last week at the Scottish Open. As long as he’s mentally ready, he should be in contention.

Tommy Fleetwood +1800

Three top-10s in his last four Open Championship appearances tells you he knows how to get it around on these courses. Finished inside the top 26 in the other three majors this year. He drives the ball beautifully, finding the fairway at a rate of over 70 per cent. And he’s great at putting on these slower greens. It’s a bit of a long shot compared to other opportunities on the board but we think it may be Tommy’s time.

Top 10

Collin Morikawa +125

The 2021 champion comes in riding a hot wave. Since the Masters where he finished tied for third, he’s had six top 10s and nothing outside the top 23. He’s fifth in Strokes Gained: Total and second in driving accuracy. Tied for fourth last week at the Scottish.

Jon Rahm +190

With the hole in his foot now mended, Rahm could be a threat. In his last three years, the Spanish sensation has a second and a third on his resume. He hasn’t had the best of years in the first three majors but he’s been consistent on LIV, including a 10^th-place finish last week at the event in Andalucia.

Top 20

Cam Young +165

Still in search of that first win, Young has been riding a hot hand of late with top-10 finishes in his last two starts. He’s also fared well at the Open with a second and a tie for eighth in his only two appearances in the tournament.

Sahith Theegala +150

Posted a tie for fourth at the Scottish Open last week and showed he can handle the wet and windy conditions. His form has been solid all year, driving it well and putting even better. Getting smarter every start and even though the record doesn’t show it (MC, T34), he can handle the Open and links golf.