Bob Weeks Picks Six – Valspar Championship

Last Week: Winner, winner, chicken dinner. We had a good week at the Players picking Rory McIlroy as a winner (+1100) and Corey Conners and Shane Lowry for top-10 finishes (+220 and +180 respectively).

This Week: One of the more difficult courses on the PGA Tour schedule, the Copperhead Course welcomes 18 of the top 50 players in the world ranking and a slew of past champions including Adam Hadwin. To play well here, the statistics indicate accuracy is better than power. The last few winners have generally been good at hitting fairways and greens. The scoring average last year was 71.41, making it one of the top-10 most difficult tracks played in 2024.

To Win

Tommy Fleetwood +1100

Tied for third here in his last visit back in 2023 and was tied for 16th the year prior to that. Fleetwood has been steady so far this year on the PGA Tour with four finishes all inside the top 22. That includes a tie for 14th at the Players. An accurate player, he’s second in SG: Approach the Green and fourth in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.

Sepp Straka +1800

His past record here isn’t all that great – missed cut last year and a tie for 46th in 2019 – but we’re basing this on his present form. He has a win and three top 10s this year and is coming off a tie for 14th at the Players. Again, sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Driving Accuracy say he should play well here this week.

Top 10

Corey Conners +290

Any good Canadian fan knows that Conners is accurate off the tee and into the greens. Lately, he’s also found some mojo with his putting. A new putter that he put into the bag at the Arnold Palmer has shined for him and given him plenty of confidence on the greens. Hasn’t played here since 2021 when he finished tied for 21st

Sam Burns +200

Burns had two wins and a sixth-place finish in the three years prior to 2024 when he missed the cut. We’ll go out on a limb and say he likes the place. He is coming in off a missed cut at the Players and his season has been average but we’re thinking he’ll find the magic at Copperhead.

Top 20

Lucas Glover +200

Glover played this tournament for the first time in 2004 and hasn’t missed one since. His best 

finish was a tie for fourth and he was 11th last year. A very solid tie for third last week at the Players, he was also third at Pebble Beach.

Jake Knapp +270

Last four starts this season have all produced finishes inside the top 25. A long hitter and a great putter, he might not fit the perfect skill-set for Copperhead but we like his current form. Playing here for the first time.

Props

Top African

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +105

Tied for ninth here a year ago.

Top Canadian

Corey Conners +130

His putter is hot so look out.

First-round Match-up -- Burns vs Schauffele

Burns+110

He’s a two-time winner here.