Can Ohtani or Judge win a triple crown in 2024?

The triple crown conversation is typically saved for horse racing.

Usually in the days after the Kentucky Derby, you’re sitting around wondering if *insert horse name here* is going to become the latest horse to make history.

It’s only happened 13 times, with Sir Barton doing it first in 1919, and Justify being the most recent in 2015.

Triple Crowns weren’t *that* unique in the 1930s and 40s. Seven different horses became a part of history over the two decades.

In the 74 years since only five horses have done the same.

Enter Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.

The two have dominated MLB pitching all season and suddenly have entered their own triple crown conversation.

And I know what you’re thinking…

“How did he win the triple crown if he’s not a horse? That makes no sense, Mike.”

It’s one of the best clips from Mike Francesa you’ll ever see, and I chuckle every time I hear about a baseball player chasing a triple crown.

Enough about horses, let’s get to the topic at hand.

Judge and Ohtani have separated themselves from the league, they’re both shoo-ins to win American League and National League MVP, respectively.

But FanDuel wants to know if you think they’ll make history this year. So, let’s dive into their chances of winning the triple crown.

WHAT IS THE TRIPLE CROWN?

For hitters in Major League Baseball, winning the triple crown is pretty simple.

You need to lead your league in three offensive categories: batting average, runs batted in and home runs

Miguel Cabrera in 2012 is the only hitter since 1970 to achieve the feat.

While it won’t happen this year, a pitcher winning the triple crown (ERA, wins, strikeouts) has been much more common than a hitter in the modern era.

Six pitchers have won a triple crown since 2000, with Shane Bieber the most recent in 2020.

WILL OHTANI OR JUDGE WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN IN 2024?

Considering only one hitter has won a triple crown over the last 50+ years it’s pretty remarkable this is even a conversation for not one but two hitters this season.

With Judge and Ohtani in different leagues we could - in theory - see two players win the triple crown this year. The odds suggest Ohtani is more likely than Judge, and I agree with those numbers.

The Dodgers slugger leads the national league with a .314 batting average and 32 home runs, currently he is second behind Marcell Ozuna in RBI trailing the Braves by seven.

Ohtani is currently +870 to be the first national league hitter to win the triple crown since Joe Medwick in 1937.

That number has an implied probability of 10.31 per cent.

Meanwhile in the American League, Judge leads with 39 home runs, and 99 runs batted in. his lead is both categories is quite large with a 9 home run gap over Anthony Santander in second and 14 more runs batted in than Jose Ramirez. 

The Yankees’ outfielder has his work cut out for him though in the batting average category, currently he is third in the AL in batting average (.315) but is .32 points behind Bobby Witt in Kansas City. 

It’ll be a tall task for Judge to surpass Witt which explains the +1100 odds tied to his triple crown odds. 

That number carries an implied probability of 8.33 per cent. 

A TAKE YOU DIDN’T ASK FOR 

Here are my thoughts. 

Judge has almost no shot of doing this. Witt has been on fire since the all-star break and a gap over .30 points in batting average is far too much for me to play. 

However, Ohtani at +870 is interesting. Hitting in this Dodgers lineup has provided Ohtani with some protection and has forced teams to challenge him more. That’s led to the 29-year-old currently having the best batting average of any MLB season he has played. 

With Ohtani hitting well-above his career average and the Dodgers being fourth in league scoring I expect plenty of opportunities for him to catch and pass Ozuna in RBIs as the season continues. 

At +870 the price is just juicy enough for me to bite. And plus, if Ohtani is going to be an all-time great (which we all expect him to be), why not be the first guy in the NL to win the triple crown since the Slinky was invented (1943).