Morning Coffee: Bengals concerns warranted after Week 1 loss

The Kansas City Chiefs are the class of the NFL.

Not only do the two-time defending Super Bowl champs have a chance to do something that’s never been done in NFL history this season, but it’s also expected of them.

The Chiefs are the Super Bowl favourite at FanDuel.

After a narrow Week 1 win over the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC Championship Game rematch, Patrick Mahomes and company will turn their attention to another projected playoff contender in the Cincinnati Bengals.

It wasn’t very long ago that football fans thought Joe Burrow and the Bengals would consistently challenge Mahomes and the Chiefs for AFC supremacy.

After a season-ending injury to their star QB resulted in Cincinnati narrowly missing the postseason in 2023, the expectation was that Burrow would return healthy this year and guide the Bengals back to the playoffs.

Of course, things didn’t exactly go as planned for Cincinnati in a Week 1 loss to the New England Patriots.

The Bengals have consistently struggled out of the gates in recent years, but a home loss as the biggest favourite on the board against an opponent that entered the season as the top choice to finish with the league’s worst record certainly feels like cause for concern for a variety of reasons.

Perhaps it was nothing more than a false start – a stumble out of the gates in a long season that ends with Cincinnati back in the playoffs.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

The road to the postseason isn’t an easy one in the loaded AFC, and now Burrow and the Bengals will need to beat the two-time defending Super Bowl champion and current favourite to win it all in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL to avoid an 0-2 start.

Sometimes the night gets darkest just before the dawn.

All you need to do is look at the NFL Week 2 lines at FanDuel to realize that things might get worse before they get better for Cincinnati.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday September 11^th, 2024.

Bengals Concerns Warranted After Week 1 Loss

The Bengals could be found at -240 to make the playoffs at FanDuel in the summer.

Following a Week 1 loss to the Patriots, Cincinnati is -150 to get back to the postseason.

The Bengals’ odds to win the Super Bowl have climbed to +2000 from +1500 at FanDuel.

Of course, one of the biggest themes that we keep hitting on this week is Week 1 overreactions.

On the one hand, it’s just one loss by a team that has earned its reputation as a slow starter with a combined 1-8 record in the first two weeks of the season since drafting Burrow back in 2020.

On the other hand, there are several underlying concerns that have the potential to disrupt Cincinnati’s potential path to the postseason.

The biggest concern is the health of Joe Burrow.

The fifth-year starter went 21-of-29 for 164 yards and was sacked three times in the loss to New England.

Burrow averaged just 5.3 air yards per attempt.

It’s just the sixth time in his career that Burrow has averaged 5.5 air yards or fewer per attempt.

Cincinnati has gone 1-5 in those six games.

Ja’Marr Chase finished with six catches for 62 yards.

Only one of Burrow’s six throws to Chase travelled more than four yards through the air.

Burrow’s ability to make big plays downfield was one of the biggest reasons for the Bengals’ success when they made a run to the AFC Championship Game in 2022.

In the season opener, he only threw eight passes that travelled more than five yards past the line of scrimmage.

The broadcast also cut to several images of Burrow flexing his throwing hand / wrist / arm throughout the game.

At one point, he put a glove on to test it out and then took it off again.

Burrow is reportedly still experiencing regular stiffness and swelling in his surgically repaired right wrist.

The fact that he’s already dealing with a problem this early in the year must be a concern.

The Bengals are currently a 5.5-point underdog for Sunday’s game in Kansas City.

Burrow is 3-1 straight up against the Chiefs.

Each of the previous three times that he’s been an underdog of 5.5 points or more, he’s led Cincinnati to outright wins.

This time around he might very well be dealing with a nagging wrist issue after struggling in his first NFL start in nearly a full calendar year.

His No. 1 receiver Chase will have to deal with star cornerback Trent McDuffie lined up in the slot.

Tee Higgins isn’t expected to play due to a hamstring injury. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had an extra few days to prepare for Sunday’s game after beating the Ravens in their opener on Thursday night in Week 1.

Mahomes is 75-22 as a starter in the league.

He’s the favourite to win NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel and I’m positive that he’s heard all the noise that’s come with this rivalry in recent years.

Perhaps the concern about the Bengals is an overreaction and they ultimately succeed in getting back to the playoffs this season.

I’m just not willing to bet on it.

I’ll buy on Cincinnati to miss the playoffs at +122.

I’ll also lock in Chiefs -5.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 2 of the NFL season.

Have a great day, everyone!