Morning Coffee: Vikings could reshape NFC playoff picture with upset win in Week 18

The Minnesota Vikings entered Week 1 with a regular season win total set at 6.5 at FanDuel.

18 weeks later, the Vikings are 14-2 with a chance to clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a win over the rival Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football.

No team in recent NFL history has been a bigger surprise.

The Vikings have already tied the modern record with the most wins over a team’s pre-season win total over the last 35 seasons.

It’s been 20 years since the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Los Angeles Chargers both cleared their respective win totals by 7.5 in 2004.

Minnesota is already 7.5 wins clear of its pre-season win total with a chance to add to that number in this weekend’s highly anticipated NFL regular season finale.

The Vikings have consistently been the most disrespected team in the league dating back to the pre-season.

That hasn’t changed this week as Minnesota remains an underdog for Sunday’s game in Detroit and a longshot to win the NFC Championship at FanDuel.

Will Sam Darnold and company continue to defy the odds with an upset win on Sunday Night Football?

The stage is set for an epic finish to the regular season.

If the Vikings pull off the upset, it could dramatically reshape the NFC playoff picture.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday January 3rd, 2024.

Vikings Could Reshape NFC Playoff Picture With Upset Win In Week 18

The 2024 NFC North has a legitimate claim as the best division in NFL history.

It’s the first division since realignment to feature three teams that reached nine wins before Week 14.

The Vikings, Lions, and Green Bay Packers all rank among the top six teams in the NFL in terms of overall record.

All three of those teams are among the top seven choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel this morning.

We could see one more significant adjustment to the Super Bowl odds for two of those NFC North teams after the final game of the regular season this weekend.

On December 15th, Minnesota was +600 to win its division at FanDuel.

Two weeks later, the Vikings are +128 to upset Detroit, clinch the division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday Night Football.

Minnesota was +8000 to win the Super Bowl in Week 1.

The Vikings are down to +800 to win it all this morning.

How much further could that number move if they upset the Lions to lock up a first-round bye and home-field advantage for the postseason?

The Lions are currently +200 to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Minnesota is +360 to win the NFC Championship.

At the very least, anybody who believes we could see an upset on Sunday Night Football should consider a play on the Vikings to win the NFC at +360.

That number will be a lot shorter if Minnesota wins.

The Vikings have defied the odds all season as one of the biggest surprises in the modern history of the league.

Minnesota is 12-4 against the spread – tied with the Chargers for the best ATS record in the NFL.

If the Vikings beat the Lions on Sunday Night Football, they will match the 2022 New York Giants and the 2021 Dallas Cowboys for the league’s best ATS record over the last eight seasons.

More importantly, they’ll compete the most remarkable turnaround in recent league history, going from 7-10 and missing the playoffs a year ago to the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Nobody is writing off the Lions and their NFC-best 14-2 record atop the best division in football.

At the same time, it doesn’t make sense to write off the Vikings as a team that could reshape the NFC playoff picture with a win in Detroit on Sunday Night Football.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with Justin Jefferson 70+ receiving yards, T.J. Hockenson 25+ receiving yards, and the Minnesota alt team total over 20.5 points at +105 odds.

Jefferson has registered 70+ yards in five straight games.

He had seven catches for 81 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between these teams.

That was after he averaged 166.5 receiving yards and a touchdown in two meetings against the Lions last season.

Detroit has allowed a league-worst 190.0 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season.

In a must-win game, Jefferson should shine.

Meanwhile, Hockenson has registered at least 25 receiving yards in six straight games.

He had four catches for 58 yards against his former team when he played them last season.

After watching Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle combine for 253 yards and a touchdown on 16 receptions for the San Francisco 49ers in a loss to Detroit, I’m confident Jefferson and Hockenson will step up on Sunday night.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have scored 23 or more points in seven straight games.

The Lions have allowed 31 or more points in three of their previous four games, with the lone exception being a 34-17 win over the Chicago Bears in Week 16.

I jumped on several player props for Sunday Night Football as soon as they popped up at FanDuel earlier this week.

These teams combined for 60 points in their first meeting and with the total for Sunday Night Football sitting at 57.5, I trust the Vikings to score at least 21 points against the Lions.

I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Jefferson 70+ receiving yards, Hockenson 25+ receiving yards, and Minnesota to score more than 20.5 points on the alt team total in a Same Game Parlay at +105 odds as a FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday Night Football.

I’ll also play Hockenson 25+ receiving yards and the Vikings alt team total over 26.5 at +100 odds.

Hopefully, we can kick off the year with a pair of winners.

Have a great day, everyone!