FanDuel NFL Best Bets: TSN staff picks for Week 15

Each week, members from our betting team will share their best bets from the slate of NFL games in hopes of building the ultimate 8-leg parlay on FanDuel.

This year, we will give you four best bets from our team while also the most popular prop bet, side and touchdown bet of the week.

This week, according to the traders at FanDuel those four props are the following:

Most Popular Prop: Josh Allen over 1.5 TD passes
Most Popular Anytime TD Prop: David Montgomery -160
Most Popular Side: Bengals -4.5 at Titans
Most Popular Total: Bills at Lions over 54.5

Let's see if we can cash another 170-1 parlay this year. 

Domenic Padula: +105 SGP: Addison 25+ receiving | Hockenson 25+ receiving | Vikings ML
 
Justin Jefferson was asked about how the Bears will defend the Vikings on Monday Night Football. He told reporters it “all depends on what do they rather. Do they rather me go off, or do they rather Jordan Addison, T.J., and A.J. to go off. I’m pretty sure they’re going to pick the second option. That’s what most people do.” I agree. Jefferson is an elite talent. Opposing defences can’t shut him down, they can only devote added resources to contain him and hope they don’t get burned. That hasn’t been the case in recent weeks, as Jordan Addison has averaged a team-high 5.8 receptions for 102.5 receiving yards over the last four weeks. When these teams met a couple of weeks ago in Chicago, Jefferson was held to two receptions for 27 yards on five targets. Addison went off for a team-high eight receptions, 162 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. Hockenson had seven catches for 114 yards on nine targets. Aaron Jones rushed for 106 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. In Friday’s Morning Coffee column, I gave out an SGP with Addison 40+ receiving and the Vikings to win outright at -110 odds. For this column, I’ll go with Addison 25+ receiving, Hockenson 25+ receiving, and the Vikings to win at +105. Good luck this weekend!  

Connor Ford: DeVonta Smith Under 4.5 Receptions (-146)

Squeaky wheel gets the grease. A.J. Brown caused a stir in Philadelphia this week when he made it clear to the media that he was unhappy with the Eagles passing attack. Something tells me he’ll see a heavy uptick in targets this week, making it tough to envision a high-volume game for DeVonta Smith.
Smith might be the most talented No. 2 wide receiver in the league, but there’s just not enough passing volume to go around in Philadelphia right now. Over the last four weeks, the Eagles rank dead last in pass rate (45.0%) and pass rate over expectation (-11.6%). Smith has recorded 5+ receptions just once in his last seven games.
The matchup against the Steelers this week is tough as well. Pittsburgh has allowed the 8th fewest receptions to wide receivers this season, so it’s highly unlikely that Smith erupts in this spot. With Brown potentially soaking up most of the targets this week, I’ll take Smith under 4.5 receptions as my best bet for Week 15. 

Drew Morrison: David Montgomery Over 54.5 Rushing Yards

After playing the last couple of games short-handed, the Lions are getting healthier ahead of their marquee matchup against the Bills at Ford Field - a potential preview of Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans.  Taylor Decker is expected back after missing the last two weeks and the Lions left tackle revealed a little bit about how Ben Johnson puts together the game plan.   The OC apparently asks his O-line about their favourite run plays and according to Decker, at least six of them will be in the first fifteen plays on the call sheet.  Decker’s admiration for his offensive coordinator is evident and so his enthusiasm for run blocking.  Look no further than the Lions 4th down conversion before kicking the game winning field goal against the Packers last week.  They needed one yard and got five, even though their quarterback tripped trying to hand the ball off.  Right tackle Penei Sewell was out in front and celebrated like he had the ball.  Not enough credit goes to Montgomery for lowering his pad level enough to take that handoff in stride from Goff going down.  It was a knockout blow from a unit that didn’t have as much success as they’ve been used to up until hat point of the game.  Detroit had 40 fewer rushing than they’ve averaged all season and frustration was evident even though they won by running it down their throats late.  With their left tackle back in the mix, it’s a perfect time to re-establish their identity.  The Bills are 19TH in the NFL against the run, allowing over 123 yards a game but the biggest reason to hand it off a whole lot is to keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands.   The Lions will look to sustain long drives to limit the MVP favourite’s time of possession.  

Luke Bellus: Texans-Dolphins Over 46.5 Points 

With Houston fresh off a bye and Miami’s offence rolling, this game feels like it could be the week's highest-scoring. 

The Dolphins' offence has looked great since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury. Miami scored at least 23 points in six of the seven games since he returned after failing to score more than 17 points in any of the four he missed. 

The only outlier since Tua returned came when the Dolphins played a chilly Thursday nighter at Lambeau Field, where the entire team simply looked cold, something we won’t have to worry about this week indoors at Houston. 

Meanwhile, the Texans are at home, which typically means good things for their young starting quarterback. 

In his career, C.J. Stroud has 25 touchdowns, a 65 per cent completion percentage and averages 299.0 yards per game in 14 starts at home. 

Compare that to 13 touchdowns, a 61.52 per cent completion percentage and 217.1 yards per game in 14 starts on the road, and you have another reason why I like this over. 

With Stroud at home and Nico Collins fully healthy, I expect this offence to move the ball against a Miami defence that just allowed the first 300-yard passing game out of Aaron Rodgers in three years.