FanDuel NFL Best Bets: TSN staff picks for Week 16

After hitting the ultimate parlay at 169-1 odds last week, we're back with another slate of best bets from the TSN Betting staff. 

You can ride the parlay or play the picks on their own, but we made sure to leave an empty space in the box for you to join in and add your biggest lock for the week! Just save the image below and add your own pick to the middle square if you want in on the action.

Here’s what we’re rolling with for Week 16 of the NFL season.

WEEK 16

Domenic Padula: SGP: Chigoziem Okonkwo 3+ receptions + Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2+ receptions (-148)

In Monday night’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles, Seahawks rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba stepped up with a 29-yard touchdown reception for the game-winning score.

While he has yet to produce more than 63 receiving yards in any game this season, Smith-Njigba has registered at least two catches and 25 or more receiving yards in 10 straight games.

Regardless of who starts at quarterback for Seattle, I’m counting on the rookie to extend his streak with at least two receptions against a Tennessee defence that ranks 29th in the NFL in average pass EPA allowed.

The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention, but Mike Vrabel’s side will be motivated to play spoiler.

Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has registered three or more catches in four straight games and seven of his previous eight games overall.

Okonkwo has seen four or more targets in seven of his previous nine games.

That trend should continue against a Seahawks’ defence that ranks 25th in the NFL in yards per target versus tight ends this season.

An SGP with Okonkwo 3+ receptions and Smith-Njigba 2+ receptions can be found on the FanDuel app at -148.

If you don’t love the juice, consider Okonkwo 3+ receptions and Smith-Njigba 3+ receptions at even-money.

Eric Cohen: James Cook to score a touchdown (-125)

To anyone who has watched the Buffalo Bills since Ken Dorsey got fired this one seems like a must play. The Bills have become a run first team and James Cook has emerged as one of the most dominant running backs in football. Most dominant running back are closer to -200 or higher to score so this one seems like a bargain.

We know you can't just handicap based on what you just saw but Cook is coming off a game where he had over 200 all-purpose yards and 2 touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys. Cook has four touchdowns in his last four games. The Bills are a double-digit favourite against the Los Angeles Chargers which means they are likely to be running the ball in the second half with a big lead.

While the Chargers are likely not going to give up nine touchdowns like they did last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, they are definitely going to give up a lot of points to a red-hot Bills team. Look for James to continue to "Cook" and find the end zone once again on Saturday night.

Evan Render: Dallas Cowboys Moneyline (-102)

Please enlighten me, what’s the Miami Dolphins' best win this season? Denver? The Chargers? They simply don’t win these games against good teams.

One of my strategies over the years especially in the NFL is always backing good teams after bad losses. The market typically overlooks them the following week and the team is more prepared and focused after suffering a humiliating defeat.

The Dallas Cowboys have fared well in cozy conditions this season, AKA at home at Jerry World. This isn’t that, but it’s the next best thing. A road game that will feel like home-field advantage plus a controlled climate that won’t emulate what we saw in Buffalo last week.

I think Dak Prescott and company get going offensively and the Dolphins won’t be able to keep up without Tyreek Hill at 100%.

I’ll take the better team at a short underdog price as the Cowboys get the big bounce-back win.

Chris Brieda: Buffalo Bills -12.5 (-115)

These Buffalo Bills might just bully the Los Angeles Chargers all night on Saturday.

Since Joe Brady took over as the Bills OC, they're 3-1 and averaging 29.25 points per game.

The Chargers have flat-out given up on the season. They're tanking. Brandon Staley has been fired, injuries are piling up, and star players are being shut down for the season to rest. Do the Chargers even want to win this game?

On the flip side, there's no room for error for the Bills. They've got to keep winning to maintain pace in the AFC. 

Buffalo is getting its swagger back, and this is a squad that knocks you down early and doesn't look back. I expect a vintage Josh Allen to lead the Bills to victory by 20+ points.

Give me Josh Allen & co. to outscore Easton Stick by 12.5 points. 

Simple enough, right?

Connor Ford: Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions (-130) 

Let’s take a moment to appreciate Mike Evans. Two weeks ago, he became the first receiver in NFL history to begin a career with 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons. This week, he’ll go up against the Jaguars - a matchup I expect him to dominate. 

It’s clear that Jacksonville’s defence is starting to regress. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed the fourth-most receptions to the wide receiver position. They’ve also allowed 27.3 points per game during that stretch. Now they’re up against a Buccaneers team that just put up 452 yards of offence against the Packers.

Evans only has five catches over his last two games. However, he’s back at home this week, where he’s recorded at least five receptions in all but one game this season. He’s seen double-digit targets in four of his last five games in Tampa, so expect him to be Baker Mayfield’s favourite target on Sunday. 

I’ll lock in Evans over 4.5 receptions as my FanDuel best bet this week. 

Christian Marin: Justin Fields 50+ rushing yards (-148) 

Justin Fields has totaled 50 or more rushing yards in three of the four games he has played since returning to the lineup after missing four games, and up next is a juicy matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. 

The Cardinals have given up the second-most rushing yards in the NFL this season, and they've allowed 100 or more yards on the ground in nine consecutive games and 12 of their 14 games this season. 

On top of that, at least one opposing player has rushed for 50 or more yards against the Cardinals in five consecutive weeks and 13 of 14 games this season.

There's a chance we see Fields hit double-digit carries this weekend, and he has totaled 50 or more rushing yards in four of the five games where he ran the ball 10 or more times. The only time he fell short was in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs when he ran the ball 11 times for 47 yards. 

Let's lock in Justin Fields 50+ rushing yards. 

Drew Morrison: San Fransisco 49ers -5.5 (-115) 

‘If you’re going to San Francisco, you’re gonna meet some gentle people there.’

That may have been true in 1967 when Scott McKenzie wrote his hippie anthem ‘San Francisco (be sure to wear flowers in your hair)’, but it could feel like false advertising to the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas.

Billed as a potential Super Bowl preview because of their identical 11-and-3 records, the similarities end there.  Baltimore could be wearing giant jingle bell bottoms and it won’t distract from the 49ers dominance.

Since a few key injuries led to a minor midseason slump, San Francisco has stomped on its opponents like the Hells Angels at Altamont.  The Niners haven’t won by fewer than 12 points during their 6-game win streak.  They have pro bowlers at almost every position and their quarterback, who’s making the league minimum, is the overwhelming favourite for MVP.  The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson is second to Brock Purdy in that market, but to make up ground he’ll have to deliver more than Santa Claus on Monday.

Jackson has the game breaking ability to do it, but the Ravens injuries won’t make it easy for him, especially since the ‘gentle people’ left San Francisco a long time ago.  What remains is a snarling 49ers football team, and a mean stench.

Luke Bellus: Pittsburgh Steelers ML (+128) 

We all know the rules with betting the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

Fade them as favourites on the road, back them as home underdogs. 

Under Mike Tomlin Pittsburgh is a league-best 17-6-3 against the spread as a home underdog. 

And they're 4th worst in the league with a record of 30-40-3 ATS as a favourite on the road.

This week feels like the perfect spot to buy in on Pittsburgh as they host the Cincinnati Bengals without Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. 

I know betting on Mason Rudolph doesn't seem ideal, but we've seen plenty of backup quarterbacks this year come in and hold their own for a few weeks. 

Also, Rudolph has made six starts at Heinz Field in his career, sporting a 4-1-1 record and is just 1-3 on the road. 

The odds on this 8-leg parlay are +12846* and $10 would pay $1284.62 on FanDuel Canada.

*Odds subject to change.