FanDuel NFL Futures: Hunting for value in league leader markets

The 2024 NFL season kicks off Thursday on TSN, with the Baltimore Ravens taking on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. 

With the season rapidly approaching, we’ll be diving into some interesting markets on FanDuel Canada that have caught the eye of our staff, led by TSN’s Sr. Sports Betting Analyst Domenic Padula.  

Earlier this week, Dom and myself gave you three teams to consider being the final undefeated squad this year, while Chris Brieda and I took a closer look at two teams that could win their division this season after finishing last in it last year. 

Today, I have enlisted Dom's services again, and 3rd and 1 author Drew Morrison has put down his CFL winners for the day to find some winners in the NFL. We also have also added TSN’s Connor Ford to the mix to discuss a few longshots.

The beautiful thing about this time of year is awards and accolades are anyones to win, so the four of us have found four players we think could lead the league in a certain category. 

With 19 weeks of regular season football ahead of us, we have some pretty tasty prices in this market, so let’s just get right to the picks. 

Domenic Padula: Most Receiving Yards: CeeDee Lamb +800

In my Morning Coffee column, I made the case for Lamb as the Offensive Player of the Year at +1100.

Lamb’s case for the OPOY will certainly look a lot better if he leads the NFL in receiving yards.

In 2023, Lamb ranked second in the NFL with 1,749 yards on a league-high 135 receptions.

He also led the NFL with 181 targets, accounting for a 30 per cent target share in Dallas.

After agreeing to a four-year, $136 million contract that will pay him the second-largest annual salary given to a non-quarterback in NFL history, Lamb is primed for his best performance ever as a 25-year-old in his fifth NFL season.

The Cowboys didn’t do anything to upgrade their offence in the offseason.

Lamb is once again set to be Dak Prescott’s No. 1 target, and if a rushing attack that features Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook stagnates, Dallas will need to lean even more on its passing game.

If everything breaks right, Lamb will certainly be a lot shorter than +800 to lead the league in receiving yards once January rolls around.  

Connor Ford: Patrick Mahomes Most Regular Season Passing Yards (+800)

It’s time to lock in my first 2024 NFL futures bet, so let’s not overthink this one. You’re telling me I can get the best quarterback in the world to lead the league in passing yards at 8-1 odds? Don’t have to ask me twice.

Surely, it isn’t a hot take to say that Mahomes is more than capable of reaching this milestone. The three-time Super Bowl champion already has two five-thousand yard passing seasons under his belt. The arm talent and ability is undeniable. However, Mahomes averaged a career-low 261.4 passing yards per game last season – which isn’t up to par with his usual standards.

Although last season was a constant struggle for the Chiefs passing game, they still ranked first in the league with a 7.4% PROE (Pass Rate Over Expectation). Long time NFL fans know that head coach Andy Reid has never been shy about passing the football.

With the additions of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and first-round pick Xavier Worthy to the receiver room, I expect to see the explosive plays that we became accustomed to with this Chiefs offence earlier in Mahomes’ career.

FanDuel has C.J. Stroud as the favourite in this market and I can’t say I blame them.

The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year is set up to have a massive season with an outstanding group of skill players. Nevertheless, don’t forget about who’s still sitting on the throne. 

Drew Morrison: Myles Garrett +650 to lead the league in sacks

Freak.  Monster.  Beast.  Out of context, these words could be insulting but used to describe Myles Garrett, they couldn’t be more complimentary. 

The league sends a mobile lab to his location anytime he’s photographed with his shirt off.  He’s terrifying, in a good way. 

He doesn’t just look the part, Garrett is the reigning defensive player of the year despite finishing tied for seventh with fourteen sacks last season.

TJ Watt is the favourite to lead the league in sacks for the fourth time in five years, something that’s nobody’s done since Deacon Jones in the 1960s. 

But Garrett can ruin that game plan, just like he’s done to opposing offences most of his career, especially last season.

He was getting to the quarterback at a career high rate with thirteen sacks in his first 10 games until the end of November when he re-injured his shoulder. 

He played through it but only managed one sack in his final six games.  He was also drawing extra attention but when healthy, Garrett will haunt however many people are in his path to the quarterback.

Luke Bellus: Will Levis +1500 to lead the league in interceptions 

Since 2019, eight quarterbacks have either led the league or been tied for the lead in interceptions with an average age of 26. 

Enter 25-year-old Will Levis.

 Levis enters the second year of his tenure with the Tennessee Titans as the franchise quarterback after being selected by them in the second round of the 2023 draft and sitting for two months to start his career. 

If he stays healthy this year, there is no reason to think Levis won’t start 17 games, as Mason Rudolph is his current backup, providing no threat of stealing playing time. 

Levis had four interceptions in nine starts last year and turned the ball over in nearly half of the games he started. 

This year, as the Titans transition into a new head coach for the first time since 2017, I expect some growing pains and anticipate this team trailing most of the time. 

The more they trail, the more Levis will need to let it fly and the more likely he is to turn the ball over.