Morning Coffee: A FanDuel best bet for Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final
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The best team in any professional sports league doesn’t always go on to win the championship.
It’s undeniable that the NBA championship went to the best team this season.
The Boston Celtics opened as the favourite to win the NBA title at +480 at FanDuel and never got longer than +500 to win it all any point this season.
Jaylen Brown and company finished with the best record in the NBA at 64-18 during the regular season – the fourth-best win total in franchise history.
They recorded 10 wins by 30 or more points – tied with the 1971-72 Milwaukee Bucks for the most in a season in NBA history.
After a dominant regular season, the Celtics took it to another level in the playoffs by winning every series in five games or fewer.
They joined the 2017 Golden State Warriors as the second championship team to finish with three losses or fewer in an entire postseason since the first round expanded in 2003.
Boston’s 80-21 record in the regular season and playoffs combined is the second-best mark in franchise history.
Despite their overall dominance, it’s interesting to note that just 10 per cent of the NBA Finals bets were on the Celtics to win the title at FanDuel.
That’s a remarkable number when you consider how thoroughly Boston dominated the Dallas Mavericks on the game’s biggest stage.
Turning the page this morning, the focus shifts to Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final with all of Oilers Nation hoping that the Edmonton Oilers can extend the series tonight.
As was the case in the NBA Finals, most of the bets were on the underdog Oilers to win the Stanley Cup Final at FanDuel.
As was the case in the NBA Finals, the more popular bet to win the series at FanDuel trailed 3-0 before rallying with a statement win in Game 4 in front of their home fans.
Oilers Nation will be thrilled if the parallels between the NBA Finals and the Stanley Cup Final end there.
This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday, June 18th, 2024.
A FanDuel Best Bet For Game 5 Of The Stanley Cup Final
The Oilers are the ninth team in NHL history to force a Game 5 after trailing 3-0 in the Stanley Cup Final.
Only three of the previous eight forced a Game 6.
Unlike Edmonton, each of those previous three winners had the benefit of home-ice advantage for Game 5.
Looking back at the previous eight teams to force a Game 5 after falling behind 3-0 in the Stanley Cup Final, five of the eight went on lose in five.
One team lost in six.
One team lost in seven.
One team – the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs – won the Stanley Cup after trailing 3-0 in the championship series.
After being held to four goals combined through the first three games, the Oilers exploded for eight goals in a dominant win over the Florida Panthers in Game 4.
Was that an aberration or a sign of things to come?
Edmonton is currently +114 to win Game 5 on the road and +720 to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel.
Meanwhile, the Panthers are currently -137 to clinch the Stanley Cup on home ice tonight and -1200 to win it all in five, six, or seven games.
Per the FanDuel traders, 83 percent of the money is on Florida to win tonight.
A whopping 92 per cent of the bets in the puck line market are on the Panthers -1.5.
Florida is 4-0 all-time when leading 3-1 in a best-of-seven playoff series.
The Panthers are also 4-1 in games following a loss this postseason, outscoring their opponents 20-10 while allowing two goals or fewer in four of those games.
As was the case with Boston in the NBA Finals, it wasn’t exactly surprising when Florida didn’t complete the sweep on the road in the Stanley Cup Final.
The last team to sweep the Stanley Cup Final was the Detroit Red Wings against the Washington Capitals in 1998.
If the Panthers bounce back with a win tonight, there will be no doubt about their place as the best team in hockey this season.
If the Oilers find a way to pull off the upset win on the road and send the series back to Edmonton, all bets are off.
The stage is set for a potentially epic Game 5 tonight.
If you’re a regular reader of this column, then you know I bet on Florida to win this series at -128 at FanDuel.
I also bet the exact outcome of the Stanley Cup Final with the Panthers to win the first three games, Edmonton to win Game 4, and Florida to clinch the series on home ice in Game 5 at +1800.
While I’d love to see the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, you could probably guess who I’ll be cheering for tonight.
It’s not personal Oilers Nation.
It’s strictly business.
As for my FanDuel Best Bet for Game 5, I’m running it back with a Same Game Parlay focused on shots on goal props for three key players.
First up, I’ll lock in Carter Verhaeghe 2+ shots on goal.
Verhaeghe led the Panthers with four shots on goal on a team-high seven attempts in Game 4.
He’s registered at least two shots on goal in all four games in the Stanley Cup Final and 19-of-21 games this postseason.
With a chance to bounce back from a dismal performance, Florida’s forwards will try to test Stuart Skinner early and often tonight with a chance to clinch the Stanley Cup on home ice.
Next up, I’ll add Vladimir Tarasenko 1+ shot on goal.
Tarasenko has averaged three shots on goal per game in the series and has registered at least two in all four games.
He’ll get his opportunities on the third line again tonight.
Finally, I’ll add Leon Draisaitl 2+ shots on goal to complete the Same Game Parlay.
Draisaitl is 4-for-4 registering two shots on goal or more in the Stanley Cup Final, including three shots on goal in each of his past two games.
Draisaitl 19-for-22 recording at least two shots on goal this postseason.
He’s still looking for his first goal of the Stanley Cup Final.
With their season on the line tonight, the Oilers will need their best players to step up once again.
I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Verhaeghe 2+ shots on goal, Tarasenko 1+ shot on goal, and Draisaitl 2+ shots on goal at -140 as my FanDuel Best Bet for Game 5.
Have a great day, everyone!