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Game Of Throws: Mahomes, Chiefs Eye unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat
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Patrick Mahomes has already established himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of pro football.
In just six seasons as a starter, Mahomes has defied the odds to become a three-time Super Bowl champion, three-time Super Bowl MVP, two-time NFL regular season MVP, a two-time All-Pro, and a six-time Pro Bowl QB.
Mahomes has accomplished more in his first six seasons as a starter than most quarterbacks could dream of achieving in their entire careers.
Did I mention he doesn’t turn 29 until September?
Yes, let that sink in.
Mahomes’ very presence represents an obstacle for the numerous quarterbacks striving to reach the summit of the NFL hierarchy.
Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, Jordan Love, and Lamar Jackson are among the top contenders for the NFL regular season MVP award.
Mahomes is the obvious favourite at +500 to win that award at FanDuel.
I use the word “obvious” because even in an “off year”, Mahomes and the Chiefs found a way to win it all.
Kansas City’s wide receivers struggled last season, leading the league with 25 drops – the highest total in a decade.
Dealing with a sub-par wide receiver core, Mahomes ranked eighth in Total QBR and 14th in traditional rating, threw a career-high 14 interceptions, and posted career-lows in yards per completion and passing yards per game.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ rushing attack was middle-of-the-pack in yards per carry and below average in success rate.
Kansas City lost four games as a favourite of 5.5 points or more, including a pair of stunning losses to the AFC West rival Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders.
Ultimately, they limped into the playoffs at 11-6.
To repeat as Super Bowl champions, the Chiefs had to beat the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and San Francisco 49ers.
At the time, a case could be made that the Bills, Ravens, and 49ers all looked better on paper.
All three of those opponents had a better DVOA at the time.
Kansas City was an underdog against each of those three teams, including road playoff games in Buffalo and Baltimore.
Still, Mahomes and the Chiefs swept them all to secure back-to-back Super Bowl titles.
The what ifs are endless.
What if the Bills weren’t so banged up on both sides of the football?
What if the Ravens didn’t abandon their biggest strength in the run game against a susceptible run defence?
What if the 49ers understood the playoff overtime rules?
None of that matters now.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are looking to make history as the first team to win three straight Super Bowls.
On paper, this year’s team might be the best of the three.
They’ve upgraded at wide receiver with the additions of veteran Marquise Brown and rookie first round pick Xavier Worthy.
Ironically, Kansas City traded with Buffalo to move up and select Worthy with the 28th overall pick in the NFL Draft.
That trade went down exactly seven years after the Chiefs traded the 27th overall pick, a third-round pick, and a 2018 first-round pick to the Bills to move up to the 10th overall spot in the 2017 NFL Draft and select Mahomes.
The good news for Bills Mafia is that this year’s trade with Kansas City couldn’t possibly come back to haunt them the way the Mahomes trade did.
That doesn’t mean the franchise won’t ultimately regret swinging another draft day deal with the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, Rashee Rice gained invaluable experience as he progressed into Kansas City’s most important wide receiver during his rookie season.
The Chiefs will need him on the field come playoff time.
Travis Kelce, who will turn 35 in October, might not play the entire season, but his talent and experience will be invaluable come playoff time.
Kelce remains a legitimate No. 1 threat – especially when Taylor Swift is in attendance, apparently.
Swift made it to 13 games last season.
When Swift was in attendance, Kelce averaged 80 receiving yards per game.
When Swift wasn’t at the game, Kelce averaged just 50 receiving yards per game.
The numbers never lie.
The Chiefs defence lost some key players in L’Jarius Sneed, Willie Gay Jr. and Mike Edwards.
However, Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, Drue Tranquill, Nick Bolton, and George Karlaftis all return as core pieces from the group that ranked second in the NFL in points per game and yards per game allowed last season.
With defensive mastermind Steve Spagnuolo at the helm, and offensive genius Andy Reid calling plays once again, Kansas City is set to contender for another ring.
The Chiefs are a co-favourite to win the Super Bowl alongside the 49ers at +600 at FanDuel.
They’re also favoured to repeat as AFC champions at +350.
Baltimore (+550), Buffalo (+750), the Cincinnati Bengals (+750), and the Houston Texans (+800) round out the top-five choices to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are -230 to win the AFC West at FanDuel.
The Los Angeles Chargers are the second choice in that division winner market at +350.
That’s the biggest gap between the top two choices to win any NFL division right now at FanDuel.
Kansas City has won the AFC West in eight consecutive seasons, trailing only the New England Patriots (11) for the longest streak of division titles in NFL history.
The Chiefs to go 6-0 against AFC West opponents this season is +340.
Meanwhile, Kansas City is -520 to make the playoffs and +360 to miss the playoffs.
The Chiefs and the 49ers are tied for the highest regular season win total at FanDuel at 11.5.
Worthy is a top-five choice to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1600.
Of course, Mahomes is the MVP favourite at +500.
Mahomes to lead the NFL in passing yards is +650.
Mahomes to lead the NFL in touchdown passes is +500.
The Chiefs to score 1+ passing touchdown in all 17 regular season games is +420.
Mahomes to throw 40+ touchdown passes is +430.
No team in NFL history has ever won the Super Bowl in three consecutive seasons.
The fact that Kansas City is a co-favourite to win it all is a testament to their talent, depth and consistency.
The NFL is on notice once again.
As long as Mahomes and Reid are together, the Chiefs will be a Super Bowl contender.
Thanks to the upgrades they made at wide receiver in particular, this year’s team could be the best yet, which is a terrifying prospect for the rest of the league.
This is the Patrick Mahomes era.
We might as well just get used to it.