Watching as much hockey as I do and constantly scrolling my phone for updated betting odds, I find myself personifying the NHL teams. What are Team X’s flaws? Under duress, will Team Y reward my faith in them? Why does Team Z frequently punish my self-esteem?

After half a season, the Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Dallas Stars have demonstrated they are worthy of our trust. This Saturday, I am counting on them to guide us through a few tough matchups.

Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars

Saturday, January 14 – 2:00 PM ET

It isn’t the sexiest question, but it is paramount for this matchup: Can the Calgary Flames find shooting lanes against the Dallas Stars? The New York teams had mixed results against the Stars this week. On Tuesday, the Islanders got shots through, but the Stars won off Jake Oettinger’s stellar play in goal. Against the Rangers, the Stars did a much better job gapping up, and yet a last-second New York goal in regulation led to an overtime Dallas loss.

Offence doesn’t come as easily to Calgary as it once did. The Flames have sunk from just outside the top five in goals per game last year to 22nd this season. The breakup of the Johnny Gaudreau-Elias Lindholm-Matthew Tkachuk line sapped the Flames of its quick-strike dynamism. 

Calgary still looks to generate its chances by spraying shots on goal into layers of screens and trying to kick it out high after working it down low—but ginning up offence can be a grind. The Flames have four players with 10 or more goals and their leader, Nazem Kadri, has 16. It’s a score-by-committee offence.

What makes Saturday afternoon’s game concerning for Calgary is the prospect of seeing Oettinger in net. Only Juuse Saros and Ilya Sorokin have better Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) than Oettinger and, since December 1st, only Saros has been better. 

For a while, teams were testing Oettinger from sharp angles to see if he was sealing the short side, but whatever defect opponents had spotted seem to have been addressed. How much offence can Calgary manufacture against a Stars team that excels at not beating itself?

Even with Roope Hintz banged up and missing the games in New York, the Stars finished with more high-danger chances in both contests. Against the Rangers, they allowed only two high-danger chances, their lowest of the season. Great defensive play has been a theme lately, with the Stars’ seven best defensive performances in high-danger chances allowed all occurring since December 10th. 

Against Calgary, the Stars’ game plan seems obvious. Forecheck and pressure the Flames’ defensive group. Put shots on net, especially if Jacob Markstrom is in goal. (In his last appearance, Markstrom torpedoed the Flames’ two-goal lead against the Blues.) Lastly, test Calgary’s transition defence by using the Stars’ defencemen on the rush.

The Stars are terrific in the faceoff circle, so I see them limiting time in their own end. Despite their memorable collapse against the Rangers, when the Stars get a lead, they’re nearly impossible to beat. It is unclear at this moment whether Hintz will play on Saturday, but the Stars have been difficult to beat at home and the Flames are a bad road team. I love the Stars’ moneyline on Saturday.

Pick: Stars -120

Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes

Saturday, January 14 – 7:00 PM ET

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ and Carolina Hurricanes’ seasons have been defined by streaks. White hot or icy cold, the whiplash has been dizzying. Both teams recently snapped prolonged losing skids, so Saturday catches them on the rebound. But I favor the Hurricanes in this matchup, which stems from a belief in the Hurricanes’ forecheck. 

In expected goals and high-danger chances percentage, the Hurricanes are first and second in the NHL respectively. But their dominance of the puck is a byproduct of how hard they make it for opponents to even leave their zone. On the neutral zone forecheck, the Hurricanes shut down the wall and press with their defencemen, stifling the center as an outlet and stymying the stretch pass. Opponents cough up the puck in transition, feeding the Hurricanes’ counterattack. 

I think the Hurricanes will accumulate quality chances by forcing the Penguins to defend in the interior. They will use the area behind the net and bring a forward high to stretch the Penguins’ defence. The Carolina defencemen will fire pucks quickly to generate rebounds, and in those one-on-one battles in the slot, they are good at forcing opponents into switches or testing the backdoor.  

On Thursday night, the Columbus Blue Jackets did have some nice moments dragging the Hurricanes’ defencemen above the circles and to the perimeter, opening up the middle of the ice. The Penguins are one of the best in goals off the cycle and second chance goals, and they have creative plays like the pass-shot off the net for the tip that they readily utilize. 

But with the Hurricanes at home, they will have the last change, giving them the ability to use Jordan Staal against Sidney Crosby. This means that the Penguins’ favorite faceoff play, with Jake Guentzel backpedaling to the top of the opposite circle as the shooter, will likely be stamped out.

Goaltending is close to a wash. Pittsburgh’s Casey DeSmith has been underwhelming this season, and Carolina’s Frederik Andersen has worse numbers than DeSmith, albeit with a smaller sample size. The Hurricanes are 12-5-1 at home this season, and the Penguins have lost more than they have won on the road. On Saturday, I like the home team with fresh legs on the moneyline.

Pick: Hurricanes -170

Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues

Saturday, January 14 – 8:00 PM ET

The St. Louis Blues have narrow interests. I’m not sure there is a team in the NHL that provides a better demonstration of only caring about one side of the ice. The Blues have the speed and skill to race up the ice to create an offensive chance, but then completely give up on defence. 

On a play Thursday night, the Blues completely forgot about half of the ice, surrendering the weak side to Calgary’s Tyler Toffoli for a breakaway, an attempt that was only foiled by an offside. You can win some games by caring solely about reaching the offensive zone. Unfortunately, Saturday is the type of game where you need to play 200 feet. 

The Lightning have so many ways to beat you that, even with a suspect road record, it’s hard for me to imagine them losing this game. At 5-on-5, they can dominate, as they are an elite team in the advanced stats. Their power play ranks second only to the Oilers, and it was a catalyst after a sluggish start against Vancouver on Thursday night. 

And then there is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is normally the team’s fail-safe. True, in his last four starts, Vasilevskiy has allowed 13 total goals, which is uncharacteristically poor and his -1.09 GSAx in that span reflects that. But on the season, he ranks just outside the top five in GSAx. Vasilevskiy has been a top goaltender this season, and after his recent shaky outings, I am incredibly dubious he strings together another so-so effort.

The Blues’ sloppy puck management and loose gaps should be catnip for the Lightning. When the Vancouver Canucks turned the puck over Thursday, the Lightning turned those miscues into quality chances and goals. The Lightning used the super-line of Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Nikita Kucherov for much of that game, but if they revert back to Brandon Hagel playing alongside Point and Kucherov, I still think they’ll find a neutral zone they can fly through.

The Lightning’s 9-9 road record poses a potential red flag, but do a little digging, and the record seems less ominous. Eight of those losses came to the Rangers, Penguins, Los Angeles Kings, Washington Capitals, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Minnesota Wild, and Winnipeg Jets—all likely playoff teams. And the ninth loss? That was to the Detroit Red Wings with Tampa Bay back-up Brian Elliott in goal on the second of a back-to-back. The Lightning have a day to rest, and I expect Vasilevskiy in goal. Give me the moneyline!

Pick: Lightning -190