Game Of Throws: How far will QBs slide in NFL Draft?

I love the NFL Draft because it’s the one time of the year when every fan base believes their team will make the picks that transform them into a Super Bowl contender.

Sure, the Tennessee Titans just went 3-14.

“But we got Cam Ward”.

Optimism around the league is unrivalled at this point in the offseason, whether it’s pending draft picks, potential trades, or rebuilds that are pointed in the right direction.

Plus, there is always the potential for a late surprise.

The Titans desperately need an upgrade at quarterback after they finished 31st in Total QBR last season.

Now they’ve found their guy in the Miami Hurricanes QB.

Ward to be the No. 1 overall pick is -50000 at FanDuel.

No other player is shorter than +5000 to go first overall.

Apparently, Titans fans should have great expectations for Ward’s rookie season.

If nothing else changes, the Cleveland Browns will stay put and select Colorado’s Travis Hunter at No. 2 overall.

The Browns have a long list of needs, and while there is always the potential for them to trade down for some added draft capital, the expectation is that they will stay put and select the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner second.

Earlier this month, I recommended a play on Hunter to go second overall at -140.

On April 7th, Adam Schefter reported signs pointed towards Cleveland using the second pick to select Hunter, which resulted in a slight adjustment as Hunter to go number two went from -140 to -220 at FanDuel.

Hunter to go No. 2 overall is now -6000 at FanDuel.

Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter (+850) is the only other player at shorter than +5000 to go second overall.

Hopefully, the Browns stay put at No. 2 and select Hunter.

For the record, I respectively disagree with Marcus Spears on the impact Hunter could have as a rookie in Cleveland.

Carter is also the favourite to go third overall at -3500.

The New York Giants reportedly made a significant offer to the Titans to move up and select Ward first overall.

They wouldn’t have had to make an offer in the first place if they didn’t upset the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17 for their third win of the 2024 NFL season.

That win resulted in the Giants falling from first to third overall based on a tiebreaker with the Titans and Browns.

In case you’re wondering, Drew Lock has signed with the Seattle Seahawks this offseason.

Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston signed in New York.

Considering they are in the market for a quarterback, and they couldn’t trade up for Ward, there is the potential for New York to trade down from the No. 3 spot.

That scenario could have a major ripple effect at the top.

If you followed me around this time last year, then you know that I was heavily invested in over 4.5 quarterbacks to be selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Bo Nix to be selected in the first round was +125 on the morning of the NFL Draft.

He ultimately went to the Denver Broncos 12th overall.

While the 2024 rookie QB class is special, I believe teams with a need will be willing to target a quarterback in the first round at the right spot this year.

The Giants might not take a quarterback at No. 3 overall, but they remain the favourite to draft Shedeur Sanders, whose draft stock has taken a massive hit overall.

Remember, Sanders was the betting favourite to go first overall when FanDuel first opened that market following the 2024 NFL Draft.

His draft position over/under was 8.5 this week.

That number has ballooned to 21.5 with reports linking him to the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 21.

Sanders to be drafted by the Steelers is -150 at FanDuel.

Sanders to be drafted by the Giants is +600.

The Browns to draft Sanders is +650, followed by the New Orleans Saints to draft Sanders at +750.

Meanwhile, Jaxson Dart is projected to be in the mix as a potential first round pick with his over/under at 25.5.

Dart to be drafted by the Giants is -135.

Dart to be drafted by the Saints is +250, followed by the Browns at +550, and the Steelers at +650.

The Giants, Browns, Saints, and Steelers all have a need at the quarterback position.

They aren’t the only teams that could be in the mix, either.

Can the teams that need a QB afford to pass on Sanders and Dart in Round 1?

Or will one of those teams – or another team – pursue Sanders or Dart in the first round?

Back in March, I took a flyer on Dart to go top-10 at +750.

That number is down to +310 at FanDuel this afternoon.

NFL on CBS reporter Aditi Kinkhabwala told us that she’s being told that Dart won’t fall lower than No. 9 to the Saints.

If that’s true, then there is excellent value betting the current numbers with Dart’s draft position under 25.5 and Dart to be a top-10 pick at +310.

Regardless of whether the Saints take him or not, I still think Dart’s draft position under 25.5 is a good bet.

And regardless of where you think either Dart or Sanders should go, there is a premium on quarterbacks in the NFL that makes me believe it’s worth taking over 2.5 QBs to be selected in the first round.

With Ward pencilled in as the first overall pick, that means that if Sanders or Dart go anywhere around their current draft position over/under we’ll see three QBs selected in Round 1.

There’s always a chance that one or both will slide.

I’ll roll the dice and add over 2.5 quarterbacks drafted in the first round to my card for the 2025 NFL Draft at -152.

I’ll also tail our guy Davis Sanchez and bet on the Buffalo Bills to use their first pick on a cornerback at +220.

Here is what I’ll be cheering for in the first round:

NFL Draft Lookahead Bets:

Number 1 overall pick Cam Ward -1000

Number 2 overall pick Travis Hunter -140

Jaxson Dart to be a top-10 pick +750

Colston Loveland under 17.5

NFL Draft Day Bets:

Over 2.5 QBs selected in the first round -152

Jaxson Dart Draft Position Under 25.5 -164

Over 2.5 RBs selected in the first round +120 

Enjoy the NFL Draft, everyone!