Betting Breakdown: Public backing Dodgers, Vlad Jr. on a shortlist to win AL MVP

The 2025 MLB Season already began last week with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs playing a two-game set in Tokyo with the Dodgers sweeping the mini series. 

But for the rest of MLB, Opening Day is set to begin on Thursday with all 30 teams in action. 

The Toronto Blue Jays open the season playing their earliest home opener in franchise history as a +102 underdog to the Baltimore Orioles. 

Expectations for the Blue Jays seem to be low this year as the team’s win total of 79.5 is the eighth lowest in the league. 

With Opening Day nearly upon us, let’s take a look at where the odds stand for the World Series and a few other notable awards. 

Public Backing Chalk Dodgers

After winning the World Series in 2024, the Dodgers have the shortest odds of every team in the league to win it again this year at +240. 

The short price isn’t turning bettors away. According to FanDuel, the Dodgers have taken 14 per cent of all World Series bets, the most of any team. And 31 per cent of the handle (total money) in the World Series market also lands on the Dodgers, a total nearly the same as the three teams behind them. 

Only two other teams are priced at shorter than 10-1 to win the World Series this year  – the Atlanta Braves at +850 and New York Yankees at +900. 

The Philadelphia Phillies (+1000), and New York Mets (+1100) round out the top five, while the next four teams priced in the market (Baltimore, Houston, Boston and Texas) are all from the American League. 

The Toronto Blue Jays at +6500 have totaled two per cent of all World Series bets at FanDuel. 

Here is a look at the five most bet on teams to win the World Series on FanDuel, and the amount of handle they carry as well. 

World Series Pick: Dodgers +240 

Los Angeles Dodgers celebrate World Series

Some are saying 2025 is the year of the public/chalk. Consider me apart of that group expecting chalk. 

The Dodgers were in a class of their own in 2024 and I expect the same to be true this year. 

Shohei Ohtani is once again the favourite to win NL MVP coming off a historic season which saw him hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases, and after another busy off-season, this remains the best and deepest team in the league. 

I would be stunned if they fail to make the playoffs and expect their price to win the World Series to be shorter come October, so I’ll play the chalk and take the Dodgers at +240 win the World Series. 

As for a longshot I would lean towards, the American League seems wide open according to the odds with four of the five teams shortest in odds being in the National League. 

With that in mind I’ll also sprinkle on Cleveland at +3500 to win the World Series. Cleveland has won 90-plus games in two of the last three seasons and if things break the right way for them this year it could be their time to breakthrough. 

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER 

Ohtani opens the season at +145 to become the first player since Albert Pujols (2008, 2009) to win back-to-back National League MVPs. 

Behind Ohtani is Juan Soto at +550 who will look to make an immediate impact with the New York Mets after signing a 15-year, $765 million deal this winter. 

Fernando Tatis Jr. is the only other player in the National League listed at shorter than 10-1 to win the award. He would be the first San Diego Padre to win the award since Ken Caminiti in 1996. 

On the American League side, Bobby Witt Jr. opens the year as the favourite at +280 with Aaron Judge closely behind at +300. 

Witt Jr. enters 2025 on the heels of a career year with highs in hits, batting average, home runs, runs batted in and walks. 

Judge is once again the main focus of the New York Yankees lineup with the departure of Soto and will look to build on the 58 home runs, 144 runs batted in and 133 league-leading walks in 2024.

Gunnar Henderson at +850 is the only other player listed at shorter than 10-1, while Corey Seager (+1100) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1400) round out the top 5. 

MVP Pick: Vlad Jr. +1400 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays

The story hanging over the Toronto Blue Jays entering this season is the contract status of Guerrero Jr. 

Vlad, 26, is set to become a free agent at the end of the year and according to reports we can expect him to sign an extension that’ll make him one of the highest paid players in MLB history. 

Recent history suggests that when a player of Vlad Jr’s calibre enters a season as a pending free agent, or a “walk year,” they are likely going to show up in a major way. 

Last year, Soto played for the Yankees on an expiring deal, scoring 128 runs, hitting 41 home runs and tallying 166 hits, all career-highs. He finished third in American League MVP voting. 

In 2023 Ohtani played for the Los Angeles Angles in a walk year, where he led the AL in home runs, on base percentage, slugging and OPS while winning the second MVP of his career. 

Finally in 2022, Judge bet on himself by entering his walk year with the Yankees, turning down a massive extension the off-season before and then having the best year of his career and winning AL MVP for the first time. 

If Vlad Jr. wants to be paid like Soto, Ohtani and Judge he’ll have to perform like them too. At the price of 14-1 I’m willing to wager that the Blue Jays’ first baseman can win his first MVP this year. 

I Wanna Rock With You 

Between you and I, I needed an excuse to write about Kumar Rocker today and figured an article like this would be the perfect way to do it. 

Rocker is an electric factory with electric stuff and is finally getting a shot in the big leagues after a long road to get here. 

Rocker pitched for three years at Vanderbilt and was named Baseball America freshman of the year and College World Series Most Outstanding Player in 2019. 

In 2021 he was selected 10th overall by the New York Mets but returned to school after the two sides couldn’t reach a deal due to Rocker’s medicals. 

That season, he was named a unanimous first team All-American and led the nation with his 14 wins and 179 strikeouts. 

The Texas Rangers selected him in the first round of the draft the season after.

Rocker’s pro career got off to a slow start when he needed Tommy John surgery due to torn ligament in his right elbow. 

Last year, between three different levels of minor league baseball, Rocker had a 1.96 ERA and pitched 36.2 innings over the course of nine starts. 

Now that he has made the Rangers big league team out of camp, this could be Rocker’s opportunity to hit the ground running and never look back. 

At the price of +2500 I’m willing to bet on Rocker showing that former top 10 pick upside this year. 

AL ROY Pick: Kumar Rocker +2500