Morning Coffee: Dynamic duo powers Duke into Sweet 16 in March Madness

Well, it’s official.

For the first time since 2022, a new champion will be crowned in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

And as we roll into the Sweet 16, there’s an obvious favourite in the spotlight as the top choice to win it all.

The Duke Blue Devils entered the month of March as the clear frontrunner to win the NCAA men’s basketball championship at FanDuel.

After UCONN’s quest for a three-peat coming to an end with a loss to Florida on Sunday, the door is wide open for all four No. 1 seeds to challenge for the throne.

Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn are all alive as the four teams with shorter than 11-to-1 odds to win the men’s title at FanDuel this morning.

One of those four contenders has managed to win and cover each of its first two tournament games.

Based on FanDuel’s early odds for the Sweet 16, it won’t be a surprise if that same team cruised into the Elite Eight with another dominant performance on Thursday.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday March 24^th, 2025.

Dynamic Duo Powers Duke into Sweet 16 In March Madness

Duke was considered an obvious pre-tournament betting favourite to win the NCAA men’s championship at +290.

After pair of dominant wins, the Blue Devils are down to +220 as the top choice to win the title at FanDuel ahead of the Sweet 16.

That current number represents a 31.3 per cent implied probability that Duke finishes its season on a 17-game win streak and is ultimately crowned men’s champions.

Following their historic start, it’s easy to understand what the love for the Blue Devils is about.

In the first round, Duke beat up Mount St. Mary’s 93-49 and covered as a 32.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

The 44-point win is officially the third-largest margin of victory in an NCAA men’s basketball tournament game.

Then in Sunday’s second round match-up with Baylor, the Blue Devils rolled to an 89-66 win.

Once again, Duke covered easily as a 12.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

The Blue Devils have now won 13 in a row and 28 of their last 29 games overall dating back to late November.

Duke is now just four wins away from completing one of the most dominant seasons in recent NCAA basketball history with a national championship.

Based on FanDuel’s updated odds, the Blue Devils are expected to cruise into the Elite Eight with another convincing win over Arizona in the Sweet 16 this week.

Duke opened -6.5 versus the Wildcats at FanDuel.

That number has already climbed to -8.5 this morning.

While all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, the Blue Devils are the lone outfit from that group that has gone 2-0 against the spread.

Their plus-67 point differential through two wins is tied for the eight-best mark in NCAA tournament history.

Six of the previous eight teams that had an equal or better point differential through two tournament games went on to reach the Final Four.

With Arizona priced at +320 to pull off the upset win, it’s notable that the Wildcats have longer odds to get past Duke in the Sweet 16 than the Blue Devils odds to win the championship at FanDuel this morning.

What is the key to Duke’s success so far in the tourney?

Cooper Flagg is healthy and just became the first Duke player to record 30+ points, 15+ rebounds, and 10+ assists over a two-game span since Grant Hill in 1994.

Meanwhile, Tyrese Proctor was the hero in the second-round win over Baylor, going 7-of-8 from beyond the arc to become the first Duke player with 25+ points and a field goal percentage of 90 per cent or better in an NCAA tournament game since Christian Laettner in 1992.

The fact that both players have looked so dominant despite that they haven’t really been tested through two games is a testament to their talent and confidence.

At the same time, I’m looking forward to seeing how those stars respond when they face some adversity – if they face some adversity – in this tournament.

What number would you need to place a wager on Arizona to upset Duke in the Sweet 16?

As somebody who jumped on the Blue Devils -6.5 early, I’ll be interested to see where FanDuel eventually lands with its numbers for the game.

Keep in mind – I also have Duke to win the title and to reach the Final Four in pocket – so I’ll concede that I’ve certainly watched the first two rounds with a certain amount of bias.

Still, in a tournament dominated by the favourites, it’s impossible to ignore Duke’s dominance.

The March Madness favourites have gone 36-12 straight up and 26-22 against the spread through two rounds.

We’ve seen two teams – McNeese State and Arkansas - pull off upset wins after closing at +230 at FanDuel.

Those are the two biggest upset wins of the tournament so far.

Hopefully, that trend continues in the Sweet 16.

If it isn’t clear already, I’ll be cheering for Chalk Madness the rest of the way hoping that this year’s tournament wends with Duke winning it all.

A Pair Of FanDuel Best Bets To Consider

As I highlighted above, I jumped on Duke -6.5 at FanDuel.

I’m still seeing Blue Devils -8.5 at FanDuel this morning, while a couple of other books have pushed it to 9.5.

It’s a little chalky, but I’d also recommend a traditional two-leg moneyline parlay with Duke and Houston to both win outright at -160.

If nothing else, I don’t think you’ll get a better price.

As for tonight’s game, I’ll start with a Same Game Parlay that features Quentin Grimes to score 20+ points but the Philadelphia 76ers to lose to the New Orleans Pelicans outright at -120 odds.

For as good as Grimes has been since he was traded, Philly has lost four in a row and are now a six-point underdog for tonight’s game in New Orleans.

The Pelicans have been ice-cold of late, but should benefit from home court, a rebounding edge, and facing an opponent that has allowed an average of over 130 points per game while dropping four in a row.

I also like C.J. McCollum over 19.5 points -110.

McCollum just scored 40 points in a loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.

He went off for 38 points in his last start against Philly.

I’ll trust him to get me 20 or more points tonight.

In the NHL, I’ll jump on the New York Islanders to beat the Columbus Blue Jackets at -128.

Sean Monahan and Erik Gudbranson are back for Columbus tonight, but the Jackets have really struggled to keep the puck out of their net, and I’m not sure that will change with those two back in the lineup.

The Islanders were rolling with wins over the Florida Panthers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Montreal Canadiens, before losing to the Calgary Flames in overtime on Saturday.

The Blue Jackets haven’t travelled well this season, so I’ll count on the Islanders bouncing back in an important spot on home ice tonight.

I’ll take the Islanders to win at -128 at FanDuel.

I’ll also lock in a Same Game Parlay with Dylan Guenther of the Utah Hockey Club to record 1+ point and 2+ shots on goal at -110 odds.

Hopefully, we can go 4-0 with the best bets tonight.

Have a great day, everyone!